The EC assume Parliament can steer the Britannia back to Brussels, and they'll not lift a finger until this has been tried. So today marks the end of the phoney war (UK theatre). What has Team Boris achieved up until this point?
1. Some rather obvious stuff: boosting Tory morale; obtaining the (fairly usual) honeymoon bounce in the polls; and presumably carrying out more concrete no-deal prep than Hammond allowed to happen in the forgoing three years. All quite useful as far as it goes, but none of it sufficient to carry the day**
2. Taken control of the agenda to the maximum extent possible (given that Grieve et al will have their day, one way or the other); made all the running; herded the opposition parties onto ground of Cummings' choosing; depressed a lot of lefties, and reinforced people's generally bad impression of Corbyn
Now it gets interesting ...
3. Signalled from Day 1 that there's confidence aplenty on the GE front, making Corbyn shifty on the subject as Labour MPs hum and haw.
4. Substantially neutered Corbyn's "unicorns for everyone" GE strategy (which did rather better than the Tories imagined it would in 2017)
5. Signalled that the Gloves are Off (proroguing Parliament, firing Spads, hint at de-selection)
On 3, it's not precisely clear whom Brenda from Bristol will blame for a forthcoming GE. But Bren is exactly the kind of voter Cummings excels in reading, so we may guess he's got that one covered. Heaven alone knows where the unicorn bidding war will go (4): but Cummings is pretty shrewd on the headlines he wants (crime, NHS, schools) and has staked them out early. However, I don't see a decisive move on / from Farage (yet): and the Celtic Fringe aspects don't seem at all under control. Extremely interesting that an 'Irish Unity' march in Glasgow caused rioting ... the fish-woman may have more on her hands than she'd realised.
6. Gone a long way to get the benefits of what is often termed the "Israeli Nuclear Strategy", i.e. - yeah, but they really are mad enough to do it.
Gets even more interesting from here.
** of course, Boris' definition of "carrying the day" is something that many Brexiteers are deeply suspicious about.