Thursday 5 September 2019

One step forward, three back...but to where?

What an amazing week! I can honestly say the fireworks have exceeded my expectations of sheer insanity on the part of what passes for our political elite (and media).

No wonder they are afraid of an election, by any measure we should replace 100% of MP's at the next election. None deserve to keep their jobs, if it was a corporate business unit , the unit would be shut down and abandoned with a big of a write-off to the value of the group.

However, Boris has taken a bad turn after his initial success of the Prorogation, he of course would have known the parliament and rebels were going to beat him. But to me it seems he thought Corbyn would go for an election. Instead in a really bizarre move, the opposition are content to oppose when there is no Government.

For his own side, I am less convinced of the aggression against his own MP's. He expected to lose a few MP's but through cack-handed management has now lost over 20. meaning he can't win any votes in Parliament again - after all, they are not going to vote for an election knowing that it ends their careers as they can no longer be Conservative candidates.

For Remainia, things appear to be going well. I am not so sure here either. Nobody I speak to is happy with the can-kicking and far more people were up for Boris sorting it one way or t'other. Remainia would do well to revoke Article 50 pre any election as that would make people think about having to 're-start' Brexit rather than just continue it. The idea that somehow they are being noble in hobbling the Government, demanding and extension and refusing an election is errant.

So I see both sides very badly holed at the moment, enter Farage perhaps? Predictions at the moment seem to age at lightspeed so are futile.


Timbo614 said...

Add to that "Thanks Bro".

andrew said...

Lab is in no hurry:

Corb knows that if we leave his internal leave/remain splits go away.

We are leaving at the top of the business cycle. Growth will slow and jobs will go brexit or no brexit.

The cons seem to be doing a good job of self-amputation without lab offering to lend a hand.
That is 42 (?) votes he threw away. Not tactics - just stupid. He just lost the next election. Those 21 (?) mps will not forgive him.

A no deal brexit will solidly paint anything that goes wrong as a con failure.

a with deal brexit will be the same.

The line on no election yet because 'we cannot trust boris' has traction as not least there is a lifetime of evidence to back that up.
Better yet, making sure the election date is post 31/10 and forcing him to ask for an extension means he is a complete failure.

Unless the cons can deliver brexit on 31/10, or get an election before 31/10, things only get worse for them.

It was a high risk game and it does not look good right now.

DJK said...

It's not looking good this morning, but who really knows? Right now I would guess Brexit kicked into the long grass, never to return; an election after 31/10, followed by a hung parliament with a Corbyn led coalition; and several more years of chaos after that. But then as the late Alan Clark used to say: "Anything can happen at backgammon."

Bill Quango MP said...

Corbyn carried on with only one in five of his MPs supporting him.
80% said he should go.

He remains as ineffective leader, years after those leadership ending events.

Boris can keep going. He hasn’t lost any MPs. He only has future vacancies for new, pro-Boris, MPs.
His problem is ‘ we leave on 31st, deal or not.’

If labour thinks forcing him to ask for an extension, reignites BXP, they are wrong. Farage will rise, but not enough to do more damage than he is already doing.

Boris is clearly mobilised for election. Is prepared to throw whatever it takes in money and promises, to win it.

I suspect that he and Cummings know that they need only hold on until Jez says “ election.”
Then they can try and reset the board in their favour. They can remove a shockingly biased speaker. A cadre Of tory-Lib Dem’s who somehow blundered into the wrong party. Take out the Faragists. And try and return to politics as usual.

It is urgently required.

DJK said...

BQ said: "...And try and return to politics as usual."

Here's hoping. Right now I just feel sadness at the antics in the HoC. I passed the stage of contempt some time ago.

andrew said...

A cadre Of tory-Lib Dem’s who somehow blundered into the wrong party.

... really?

I would put it the party has blundered away from them.

Some of these people have been in parliament from a time before we joined the EU - indeed before I was born.
I preferred the time when the cons were less idealogical and more practical. Less jihad more gin.

E-K said...

If it ends with the destruction of the Tory party no bad thing (and I'm instinctively Conservative.)

The Fake Tories have been this nations' whole problem all along.

BREAKING NEWS: Lib Dem politician crosses house to join... the Lib Dems !

And so should 70% of their party.

Replace them with some of TBP members - the real Tories.

hovis said...

Hmm Andrew .. are you sure?

Simply because they were MP's before joing the EEC means that they were onboard with the Heathite agenda - far from blundering away this was the only chance they had for survival. Still looking dodgy but this is in effect 28 years in the making.

Charlie said...

So what do we think is going to happen?

Boris to advise HMQ to refuse Royal Assent to the surrender bill if Labour won't vote for a GE in mid-Oct?

CityUnslicker said...

Charlie - logic and recent history tells us that remarkably, somehow the can will be kicked 3 months up the road and not much else will change.

Anonymous said...

"If labour thinks forcing him to ask for an extension, reignites BXP, they are wrong."

I don't know. Do you think the millions of angry Leave voters are going to tick the Tory box? Remember, 100 Tory MPs apparently called for the traitor MPs to be reinstated.

I'm damned if I'll vote Tory if mine was one of them. They can rot.

AndrewZ said...

At various times many commenters on this blog have suggested that a major re-alignment of British politics is long overdue. It looks like it’s now arrived. If Johnson holds on as PM the Conservative Party becomes a radical “No Deal” and free-trade party. Labour will become a pure hard-left party as Momentum gradually forces out the remaining Blairites. The centrists from both parties will move to their natural home in the Liberal Democrats. The Brexit Party will be destroyed or absorbed by the new model Tories and the Greens and UKIP will remain niche parties with little or no potential for growth. If Johnson is brought down then all the pieces will be thrown up into the air again, but they certainly won’t land in the same places they were in before.

Anonymous said...

A realignment of politics might not be a bad thing. But what is important is that elected MPs promised to abide by the referendum result, and they haven't. The damage to democracy is the key thing.

For years engagement in politics has been falling, fewer bother to vote ("what's the point?"). This Parliament has been one long exercise in proving such people right.

And when voting makes no difference, what then?

"It is the primary right of men to die and kill for the land they live in, and to punish with exceptional severity all members of their own race who warm their hands at the invaders' hearth" - Churchill, A History Of The English-Speaking Peoples, Ch 2.

formertory said...

<a href=
">Dan Hannan disagrees with CU.</a>

Needless to say, I hope Hannan is right!

formertory said...

Damn. Sorry, screwed the href.

Display Name said...

Beyond my understanding but saw this...

"If extending Article 50 is a prerogative power, then the Queen's assent is needed, and Boris can ignore Bercow's Brexit-wreckers' bill.

If it isn't a prerogative power, then May's April extension was illegal and we've left."

Does this have any legs? I do wonder whether in the face being boxed in Johnsons silence is because he plans to pull a cat out the bag that will end this once and for all

Elby the Beserk said...

Post on Twitter...

"It appears Britain has a Parliament that refuses to execute on the result of a referendum but also refuses to support an election which could replace them with a Parliament that will"

Pretty much sums it up you'd have to say. And there has been a coup - of the House over we the People.

Elby the Beserk said...

Blogger formertory said...
Damn. Sorry, screwed the href.

iIf you have a Chrome based browser (I use Brave as it has no ties to Google, is faster than Chrome and has a built in adblocker and tracking suppression) no need for Href. Select the URL, right click, and there is a "go to URL" option.

If you haven't got a Chrome based browser, then more fool you ;-)

Anonymous said...

"I use Brave as it has no ties to Google"

It also has an "anonymous via Tor" browsing option which is really useful for all those US media sites which are barred to Europeans cos of GDPR.

Anonymous said...

But ... a few sites don't display well in Brave, so I have Firefox as a fallback. Firefox has useful add-ons like the one (Video DownloadHelper) which means you can download the video from most sites.

Suff said...

@Display Name. I had exactly the same thought. I can’t believe JRM and Cummings wouldn’t expect the squeaker to enable a bill to be passed through to derail Brexit. I don’t know the technicalities of the law but surely it’s water tight. The WA negotiation is carried out under the agreement of the treaty and therefore has nothing to do with the parliament. The government can simply ignore it.
Bojo can spend the next few weeks saying the remainers are cowards and against the will of the people. He can very publicly pop across to the EU for a negotiation and ask for the moon. Of course after the laughing has stopped they will respond but Mr Johnson you already have our offer it’s non negotiable. He turns to leave dejected. But Mr Johnson we have the terms of your extension to negotiate.....
So back in Parliament. The opposition sneer “ well put your negotiated deal before the house. I can’t as the squeaker said it can only be put forward if significantly changed from the three previous attempts. Howls of laughter, then show us the conditions of the extension. I can’t as the Government have already rejected them. You can’t do that without the consent of Parliament. I believe the law has already ruled that I can because the original extension was never ratified by parliament. I won’t agree to it. So either you remove me through a general election or we are out on the 31st. If you find that illegal then so was the extension and so we have already left. Which is what he has always said. We will be out on the 31st or sooner?

formertory said...

Elby: thanks for that. I use Vivaldi - useful customisation possible. I'll check out Brave.

Anonymous said...

It does all seem to be coming to a head now, three years of navel-gazing is at least coming to an end.

Parliament will prorogue, Johnson will either accept being forced to ask for an extension or step down.

The EU may very well not give an extension - extend to January, for what? Realistically, very little. All sides are now running out of road, which is at least something Cummings has achieved. If that was his plan, and Boris a sacrificial pawn, then well played.

It's Revoke or No Deal, unless there's an election, in which case if Boris gets a majority, NI gets sacrificed, or No Deal. If a hung Parliament, it's Corbyn forced to Revoke by his allies.

We may not be out on Halloween, but things will be resolved before Christmas.

Thank fuck.

At least this proves we're not secretly ran by lizards, no conspiracy could be as inept, as incompetent or as cringeworthy as the last three years of a political shitshow that has only achieved in highlighting what a bunch of useless twats our MPs are.

andrew said...

We _are_ secretly run by lizards.
Except you know it - not so secret.
And have you ever seen lizards do anything for the british public. me neither. it explains a lot.

HS2 actually means Huge Salamander 2.

Elby the Beserk said...

Anonymous said...
But ... a few sites don't display well in Brave, so I have Firefox as a fallback. Firefox has useful add-ons like the one (Video DownloadHelper) which means you can download the video from most sites.

When I have a problem with Brave taking the shields down usually sorts it.

Anonymous said...

I see Amber Rudd has decided, in her principled way, to join what she sees as the winning side.

Matt said...

I see the Tory party plans to put a candidate up against Bercow. Hope they also plan to block him be coming a Lord.

Matt said...

Having fulfilled his wrecking role, Bercow has seen the writing on the wall and will go. No Lords for him I suspect but probably a large fee for part time work at some Soros backed foundation.

First political party to propose retrospective legislation to allow for prosecution of those giving comfort to foreign powers (the EU) to get my vote. Double if they remove anyone from parliament in receipt of payments from said foreign powers.

How this is any different to Russia (supposedly) funding fake news on Facebook I fail to comprehend.

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