Sunday 20 October 2019

Remainers gonna remain

Well everything is proceeding to the standard political model.

The remainers are going to frustrate Boris and the few leavers in Parliament by trying what is in effect a direct negotiation via Parliament. This aims to get both a softer Brexit and a new referendum.

They just have to make sure they don’t accidentally have an election and get kicked out.

Fun times!


Wildgoose said...

If the EU denies an extension then I think Boris' deal will pass on Tuesday.

If they grant an extension in the (increasingly forlorn) hope of getting a revocation of Article 50 then I think we'll be leaving on Oct 31 with No Deal.

Because that is still the default, and Boris hasn't actually requested an extension. He didn't sign Parliament's letter and so any "extension" granted can be challenged in the Courts.

Lawfare can work both ways after all.

Al said...

I have a grudging admiration for Borris over this deal.

He has shown that he is first and foremost a democrat over being a unionist.

Recognising that the DUP no longer command a majority in NI, he has torn up the twin consent model that was foundational to the GFA.

And put in place what will lead to somewhere between NI becoming a principality and full blown reunification*.

A question I have is can the UK exit this treaty like it can do for other international treaties or is it permanent in the same way that the backstop was?

The only way I can see that he could have improved on the deal was to retain EU membership for NI, allowing for a minor seat on the EU council and an MEP or two.

*All goods going to NI will need a customs declaration.
Goods imported as part of GB FTA (e.g. chlorinated chicken) will not be able to be sold in NI.
Goods from NI going to GB will need to be customs checked (as otherwise it could breach terms of GB FTA where export tariffs would be lower than EU ones).

I am interested to understand if my reading of the deal is correct.


James Higham said...

“They just have to make sure they don’t accidentally have an election and get kicked out.”


Anonymous said...

A question following on from Al @10.23:
Isle of Man (crown dependency I believe) yet not in the EU; does it have a hard border?

Anonymous said...

@Anon 2:42 - it is part of the EU Customs Union, so it doesn't need a hard border with the EU.

We're still stuck with a Parliament not knowing what it wants. I'm just hoping the EU says no to an extension, unlikely as that may be, as it may focus minds.

There would be no small measure of irony should the Remain and Delay groups find themselves squarely blamed for the No Deal they said they didn't want. The ERG standing up to applaud Bercow, and congratulating him for giving them what they wanted, and the sickened look plastered across his boat race may actually be worth the panjandrums of No Deal.

There may be a few genuine MPs doing this through principle, but from here it looks like most of them are genuinely terrified of having to own such a massive decision. Cowards. That's the job, don't like it? Fuck off and go stack shelves someplace.

Al said...

Anon@2:42 I don't know - I assume that currently either
goods cannot be imported in to the IoM EU tariff free and fed in to the EU.
Or that goods can be imported but then not imported from IoM to EU.
Otherwise there would be a huge amount of trade inbound via IoM.

Worth listening to latest RTE brexit podcast on this (from middle). There will be very little difference between ROI->UK vs NI->UK exporters.

There will be a full customs and regulatory border down the Irish Sea (is my understanding).

andrew said...

The strap line was excellent in a sense

Remainers gonna remain

... that is the one thing that wont happen unless they leave the uk