Monday 23 December 2019

Brexit bites back

Really not very convinced by Boris' new strategy:

1. Win Election Getting Brexit done - big tick
2. Hold immiediate vote on Withdrawal Agreement - big tick
3. Legislate to make sure we leave come what may Decemner 2020 - err...

Why point 3? It is of course the Cummings strategy, set the scene so those pesky Europeans are focred to do a deal in a timeframe of our choosing - stop them dominating the battlefield like they did with sad old Theresa.

However, I am only partially convinced, as it sets up another round of remainer remoaning for the middle of next year and beyond. It will be hard to do a swift deal with the EU as there are many trade-off's to be considered.

Firstly, do we really want free movement or not. If not then many roads are closed, if we want a full Free Trade Association only this is compatible, but with much ECJ oversight and a distinct limit to the point our own trade deals with the US, Canada etc.

With much potential disagreement in Westminster and Brussels, we could well face another false cliff edge in December 2020.

For me, the issue is  no longer political - a great victory for Leave has ended that. For the economy though we are crying out for certainty, as was seen by the fall in the Pound last week when Boris announced this plan.

On balance, there was no need for it - it is pure showmanship with a potential downside. The battlefield was already won and this is a small mis-step.

Merry Xmas everyone, our light touch service may become even lighter touch this week and next!


Sobers said...

No, a thousand times no!

The last thing we need is more can kicking, more 'Oh just another 12 months to get a final agreement Minister'. We've had it with that technocratic bullshit. We're out, if they want a deal here's the timetable to agree one, otherwise WTO it is. End of story, draw a line under it. This has Cummings written all over it, and I agree wholeheartedly.

Have you learnt absolutely NOTHING from the last 3 years?

dearieme said...

Sobers has it. If the buggers want a deal a year is ample time. If they don't a decade wouldn't do.

dearieme said...

And also: it's a tool for managing quislings in our own civil service.

CityUnslicker said...

Dearime - A good tool I will give you that, but not sure a fake cliff edge will cut it with the quislings anyway!

andrew said...

Of course it is a fake cliff edge
On anything to do with brexit the electorate currently want the govt to jfdi.
Anyone standing in the way will be given the choice of whatever deal can be done in a year or no deal at all.
This works well if you want a fairly hard exit.

E-K said...

Happy Christmas one and all.

Anonymous said...

Continue with free movement? Do that and there will be civil strife.

What part of wage suppression for the lowest paid do you not understand?

Anonymous said...

What part of wage suppression for the lowest paid do you not understand?

How can it be wage suppression when the local didn't take on the jobs. It was wage enhancement for them.

If I go back a number of years, there was a very bright economist who posed this idea - 90% of the world earn $1 a day and their aspiration is $2 a day. How can the west justify their pay rates if jobs are being deskilled to the extent that they can be done by anyone.

Don't blame the EU. Just open your eyes to what is happening in the world - and then skill up like mad.

Afterthought: What is going to happen to all those $2/day people when robots get better and AI takes over clerical work.

Anonymous said...

It makes sense to me.
They want to shut down the story. Remain / opposition are largely irrelevant now.
The EU will go with it - Borris literally handed over NI in the last deal. I am sure he will promise that he will bend lots with the next deal.

andrew said...

Q: What sort of deal will we get?
A: One that can be agreed in 11 months

Bill Quango MP said...

Trump will be very keen to have a USA-UK trade deal.
Ready to reveal for September or October 2020, and his re-election bid.

Neither Trump, nor Boris, will care too much if the trade deal is actually seriously done or not. As long as the papers can be signed and billions of squillions of dollars announced.
A bare bones, fill in the rest in 202x will be very, very beneficial to both parties.
And the respective civil services can JFDI or find new employment.

Nick Drew said...

BQ +1

and EK +1 ... Merry Xmas!