Thursday 2 January 2020

2020 Predicitons

After last years frankly lame effort at predicitng, this year should be much easier should it not. First off all we don't have to worry about General Elections or whether the UK will leave the EU.

Also with the Corbyn terror seen off for a long time, gross mismanagement of the economy should be off the table...we hope!

So, with a slightly more normal year I am proposing a prediciton competition with a chance of some of us coming out with an above 50% hit rate on the questions...oh for the halycon days of 2011/12 where someone normally got 100% plus a bonus guess too. I look forward to a return to the past in this sense.

Here we go then:

1. What level will the FTSE end 2020 (this could be a bit risky if Boris somehow contrives a no deal disaster by the year end)?

2. Will we, as UK citizens, still have Freedom of movement within the EU for 2021+?

3. What percentage of electriciy will be on average generated by non-fossil fuels for the year?

4. What taxes will the new chancellor impose? Will there be any tax cuts in the March Budget?

5. Will China invade / occpuy Hong Kong fully?


One bonus guess allowed too?

Go for it people.

13 comments:

John in Cheshire said...

My Predicitons are:
1.The FTSE will end 2020 above 8000
2. We will not have free movement in the EU (have we ever - try getting a job in France) but they will still have free movement here, including all the illegals.
3. Scam fuels will generate less than 10% for the year but the media will ty to convince us that on the day when the wind was blowing and the sun was shining and the scam achieved over 50% of power generated, this was a typical figure for every day all year. However, because the scam is so successful, electricity prices will still be higher at the end of the year.
4. Hospital parking will be free but because of all the immigrants using the NHS, all the parking spaces will be full, all day every day. VAT will remain and as far as I'm concerned that is a significant tax imposed, despite Brexit.
5. China will not occupy Hong Kong but I'm sure they are secretly training forces in Hong Kong to do their violent bidding.
6. Bonus guess - we'll still be constrained by the EU and it will still be a divisive subject; the Remainer simpletons will still be plotting and scheming and, like the Extinction Rebellion thugs, street protests will persist.

DJK said...

1. People keep saying how cheap British shares are, and talking about a post-Brexit bounce. I think that events will derail that and the FTSE 100 will end the year at 7650.

2. British passport holders will still have visa-free travel to the EU.

3. 21% (mostly from wind), averaged over the year.

4. There's been talk of increases in CGT. I think instead, perhaps, a modest increase in corporation tax, offset by allowances against research spending. Probably more excise duty on booze and insurance tax too, with a generous increase in the starting rate for higher rate income tax payers.

5. No invasion, but then no end to the current crisis either.

6. I thought about predicting a new baby in Downing Street (which really would lead to a Boris poll boost). But instead I'll go for a second Labour leadership contest, the current one only leading to more bitterness and paralysis amongst the comrades.

Smiffy said...

1. 7200
2. Yes
3. 28% average over year
4. Increase on booze and fuel tax to be offset by more research into alternative fuels
5. No

My bonus is that there will be a referendum towards the end of the year on whether to continue negotiating with the intransigent EU or pull out on no deal.

Raedwald said...

1. 7400 - any rallies will dissipate
2. UK citizens will continue with visa-free travel to the Schengen area for up to 90 days from 2021.
3. 25%
4. Plastic packaging tax - to include non-refillable plastic bottles. This will also have a knock-on effect of reducing road transport and creating more local filling facilities (remember when Schweppes had a carbonated drinks bottling plant in many large towns?)
5. China will support pro-Chinese insurrectionists but we will not see PLA tanks in HK.
6. Kier Starmer will become Labour leader but will be dogged with rumours about (mental?) health problems.

Bill Quango MP said...

7700

2. Yes. Free travel. Except for one country, kicking up a fuss, re temporary visa or daily charge for uk citizens, or something. To deflect interior turmoil of the politicians.. Spain, most likely,

3. Green energy will be 60% ( media reported.)
In fact, will be 14%.

4. Tax increases. And stealth taxes. Slightly offset for some inefficient “ northern vote gerrymandering..erm..I mean...investment and regeneration funds.

5. Probably not. Not with 6. In play.

6. Trump, squeaks an even narrower win than last time. 2 ec votes, and a lot less actual votes than ( Saunders or Pocahontas)
Causes twitter to explode.

Nick Drew said...

1. Timing is everything: 7400

2. Effectively yes, but with some token restriction on business travel (but not on hols, they don't want to piss off Joe Public)

3. Several readers here are, errr, a tad behind the times: non-fossil elec was 48.5% in 2019!
I am pleased to say the Grid carefully reports biomass separately (8%), seeing as how it isn't remotely 'green' and actually adds significantly and disgracefully to CO2 emissions, however calculated (give that it displaces nat.gas. from the system)

So - gotta be north of 50%. NB, that's % elec, per CU's qn - not % total energy

4. Prob some reinforced tax-avoidance measures, which must be a classic Cummingsite gesture towards JAMs everywhere. (PS, if Boris doen't do this, the howls of Oligarch-stooge will be loud. Watch out for That Report, which will be ferociously played up by the left - not least because of the carnage the EHRC is about to wreak upon Labour.)
Plus a token tax cut, natch: but I can't guess details

5. No, deffo not. Remember, HK is important to Xi but Taiwan means Absolutely Everything to him, & he'll do nothing which might prejudice its "reunification" in his lifetime. Which is HK's only major card in the whole sorry game.

6. Wildcard - I usually bank on Russia to do something dramatic; but in US Election yr they may wonder a bit more than usual how the Donald might respond.

So: how about ... Boris calls her bluff and gives the fish-woman her IndyRef2? I have to believe it's been wargamed. BTW, it'll be most likely if Boris suffers some major hiccup elsewhere, as a truly gigantic diversionary measure

DJK said...

Re renewables: ND, I'm sure your right, but eyeballing the yearly graphs on Gridwatch, UK demand seems to be about 30GW. Wind, although right now it's 13GW, a more typical figure seems about 5GW. Solar (summer) or bio (winter) is about 3GW. So I'm surprised at your >50% figure.

Nick Drew said...

CU said "non fossil fuel", which incl nuclear

the only fossil soon will be natural gas

dearieme said...

"6. Kier Starmer will become Labour leader but will be dogged with rumours about (mental?) health problems."

Isn't he a bit old to be Diane Abbott's love child? And a bit white?

Anomalous Cowshed said...

1. FTSE 100 performance will continue to be dominated by sterling movements, which are likely to remain volatile, dominated by political events. Obvs. So to pick a number, 7752. Up around 2%.

2. Probably. Depends on the timing, but freedom of movement yes. Visas for work - quite possibly. But that could come into force from 2022/3 onwards.

3. Lower than the past few years. I don't know why, but I expect that this year will bring some quite prolonged periods of unusually settled weather, which will blow wind out of the water. That could see a drop in excess of 10% of renewable generation. I don't know the numbers, but that could potentially be quite tricky.

4. I don't think there'll be much change this year. Duty on fags will stay the same (or rise in line with previous years). Duty on booze will probably get cut, mainly on beer, cider possibly rising. Fuel, stays the same. I don't think there'll be very much headline activity this March/April, as the flagged rises to NMW would marginally increase revenue if they don't change the PA. So, an increase in deficit spending. November might be a different matter. IPD/APD and the like might increase, or some changes to stamp.

4. b). I wouldn't be entirely surprised if some sort of duty/levy was at least flagged up for social media, particularly Facebook, or for crypto currencies, or big/personal data brokers. Consultation to follow in the Autumn.

5. Probably not. Or not overtly.

Surprise : Corbyn appears on the ballot for the Labour leadership, close to the deadline. Divers alarums ensue.

Anonymous said...

I "predicton" that CUs use of spellcheck will not improv.

andrew said...

1. What level will the FTSE end 2020
About 5% up so 8050.

2. Will we, as UK citizens, still have Freedom of movement within the EU for 2021+?

Visa free deffo.
Other fine detail like freedom to work... probably coming to an end.

3. What percentage of electriciy will be on average generated by non-fossil fuels for the year?

Over 50%
Tax breaks have been removed. So growth slows. Say 55%

4. What taxes will the new chancellor impose? Will there be any tax cuts in the March Budget?

Gradual move towards carbon use or single use plastic use being taxed as a 'sin' tax

Some barnacle scraping. Minor change to pension tax regs do nhs consultants do not suffer an 80% marginal tax rate.

5. Will China invade / occpuy Hong Kong fully?

Fully... no.
Key activists will be disappeared for re education.

Bonus:
Outline/framework of brexit fta will be agreed.
Details to be agreed over the next 3 years.

Uk interest rates will rise.

GridBot said...

1. What level will the FTSE end 2020 (this could be a bit risky if Boris somehow contrives a no deal disaster by the year end)?

7400 - rising to around 7800 by the summer time (assuming "WW3" doesn't happen...), followed by a slump when brexit rears its head again.

2. Will we, as UK citizens, still have Freedom of movement within the EU for 2021+?
No. Token visa required for travel. more stringent requirments for a job etc.

3. What percentage of electriciy will be on average generated by non-fossil fuels for the year?

36.5% by "Renewable" inclusive of all types of biomass and 19% by nuclear making for 55.5% total non fossil.

4. What taxes will the new chancellor impose? Will there be any tax cuts in the March Budget?

plastic tax, fags and booze, EV's attracting increased road fund tax based on value of purchase price.

5. Will China invade / occpuy Hong Kong fully?

no - too much agro to deal with from the west in an already struggling export economy. Also not the Chinese way - see Sun Tzu. A more subtle, intelligence led approach likely to be adopted.

Wild Cards:
- Jess Phillips to take the labour leadership (cringe)
- National Grid to undergo structural changes following further investigation from the power cut on the 9th August. (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jan/03/three-energy-firms-to-pay-for-failings-over-august-blackout) (wouldn't be surprised if the electricity system operator is made independent)
- Status Quo for the middle east, lots of noise and the occasional cruise missile salvo, plot uncovered for mainland attack on USA and thwarted.
- Trump re-elected on an improved margin.