Friday 31 December 2021

How did 2021 Predictions go and our annual winner

The questions were; the price of  Tesla, the price of Bitcoin, would Biden still be President, when will the Tier system use end and the FTSE price.

Quite finance focused but let's see what the real-world results are...

FTSE: ending at around 7400 - up from 6500 at the end of last year, so a decent recovery back to levels of, err, 20 years ago. 

Tesla  - up from 700 to 1090 - wow. a mere 50% gain. 

Biden is still President. 

The Tier system ended in June.

Bitcoin has gone from $30,000 odd to $50,000 odd. 

So if we had all bet our money quite simply we should have made a bundle. Sadly, I was contrarian and as usual missed all of this!


Electro Kev:

FTSE 7500 (just following the crowd here, really)

TESLA £733.25 (because that's $1000 at present exchange rates and TESLA is technically diverse and trades on myth and legend status.)

Tiers end - 2022, Spring. (They're using the Spanish Flu handbook.)

President USA - Harris (a few senior moments will see to that. He should avoid wearing white trousers in public)

Bitcoin - £32,000 (I just looked at the trajectory on a graph and I think major investors will hold out - also drug dealers are the only people travelling on public transport and are making a killing in this crisis... the stench of cannabis is everywhere.)

A very good effort there from Kev. Most entries were very out on Bitcoin - Kev nailed it. He also nailed Tesla and was only two percent out on the FTSE. 

This must be the best ever performance in the 15 years of the competition!


Elby the Beserk said...

Excellent! Does that mean E-K is now our PM?

dearieme said...

Nah, but it does mean that Imperial College should appoint him Astrologer Royal in succession to that prick Ferguson.

Jan said...

Cheers to Kev and Happy New year to one and all!

Bill Quango MP said...

Well done EK.

djm said...

Congratulations, EK

andrew said...

I would say EK for PM (again) but the simple act of me expressing that prediction completely removes any chance of it happening in real life
given my track record.

lilith said...

Yay Kev! You should take up Tarot cards :) Well done!

Matt said...

Congrats E-K.

@dearieme - that's a good suggestions as anyone could come up with a better guess than Ferguson.

Perhaps for this year we could see whether any of the incompetents holding positions of power in government, civil service or SAGE will lose their jobs?

Or maybe not - too easy. Lessons will be learnt, but no one was individually identified as being shit at their job (and thus no one was sacked).

More letters inviting MPs to play a game of hangman are on the cards I fear before the country improves.

Scrobs. said...

Just checked the Honours List, and Elecs isn't mentioned!

Well done that man, and here's a personal OBE from the family Scrobs!

Don Cox said...

If you sack all the incompetents, they will be replaced by other incompetents: competent people are scarce. People who want an assistant or two are common.

Don Cox

Elby the Beserk said...

dearieme said...
Nah, but it does mean that Imperial College should appoint him Astrologer Royal in succession to that prick Ferguson.

12:00 pm

Quite so. Ferguson the very epitome of that core value of modern Public Sector work. Repeated reward for repeated failure. Think Cynthia Bowers.

Happy New Year y'all.

Anonymous said...

tONY bLIaER and Val Amos as Knights of the Garter, in the personal gift of the Queen.

Blair we all know and despise. Amos has made an entire career as a diversicrat. That's literally all she's ever done.

It looks as if the monarchy is determined to commit suicide.

Bill Quango MP said...

The Soviet model, dictatorship system of command was the opposite of ours.

That culture operates on the principle that ‘Someone is always negligent. Incompetent. Incapable. Or simply a saboteur.’
The first step in assessing a disaster is to find the someone who is responsible and execute them.
To avoid any further blame contamination.

As a system, it has little to recommend it. Being even more ineffective than our current, ‘society is at fault. No one, least of all those who have official responsibility, are to blame.’

The only slight advantage of the communist system is someone, with some significant measure of involvement in the decision making and leadership hierarchy, will get shot.

Matt said...

@ BQ

On the contrary, I think your slight advantage is actually a significant one. Either way nothing changes but at least someone gets shot in the Soviet case.

Graeme said...

How many times would Neil Ferguson have been shot?

PushingTheBoundaries said...

Well done EK, Nostradamus sends his best.

Elby the Beserk said...

Coming to the conclusion that modellers in some areas need locking up. Climate change models are utterly out of skew with real world data, so much so that even Gavin Schmidt, Arch Evangelist of the movement, head of Atmospheric "Science" at NASA has admitted they all run too hot.

Yet on change in policy, all model predicated, is taking place.

Same with the foul Ferguson. His and his associates models are not fit for purpose, again bear no resemblance to what is happening on the ground, yet used as the cornerstone of Covid "policy" (aka "Runa round waving your hands in the air")

Sick to the back teeth of them. And stupid governments who seize on them and then hit us over the head with the resultant policies.

Here's a good one...from the venerable Paul Homewood, pain on the BBC side who has extracted a few "corrections" out of the BBC and their endless proselytising.

"Wind Power Drops By A Third In Q3"

Whilst at the same time we are building more and more turbines and increasing their "capacity" (a wholly fraudulent figure as it is never reached, but handy for screwing more money out of us).

We may not be a failed state, but I'm damned if I see where a competent government, untainted with extreme ideology in one for or another, will come from.

E-K said...

Fuuuuuuuuuuuck me !

Happy New Year everyone !!!

E-K said...

*Clutches award to breast*

I have to thank my mate Ivan The Lefty.

We have unhealthy email debates on such stuff, especially Bitcoin and Tesla/Greenism...

Also Brother of E-K who is a council house dosser with mental issues but a tangential view on life.

Also my Mum, Dad... long suffering wife... blah blah blah (Greta)

Bill Quango MP said...

BBC website.

Banner headline.

Denmark's government has announced a goal to make domestic flights fossil fuel free by 2030.

Followed by the story text that simply encourages pointless, PR, virtue signalling, unicorn wishes a feature of politics.

“In her New Year's address, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said she wants to "make flying green".
However she acknowledged that the solutions to reach her target were not yet in place.”

Don Cox said...

Maybe they can make flying green by allocating half the cabin space to growing lettuces.

A plane would be allowed to take off when its lettuces have absorbed enough CO2 to counteract the amount released by the jet engines.


jim said...

Congratulations to E-K.

Planes flying on bio diesel sound pretty pricey for Benidorm. Fusion might work someday, otherwise invest in long johns and a fleece.

Can't help feeling that global warming etc is a self solving problem, but not in a good way. Realistically the politicians are never going to do anything to stop warming. Their only useable skill is lying and on that one they are rumbled. By the time they get desperate enough to cooperate it will be too late.

So I am pretty sure we will heat up, get hungry and start squabbling. Buy land high up with defensible access. A lifetime supply of baked beans, bicycles and machine gun bullets looks good. Add a spot of Covid Mk99 and the occasional nuke - not too many - and the problem might go away. Can't see much else is likely to work. On this one I don't think The Market will provide, the incentives are all wrong.

Don Cox said...

The only hope for reducing global warming is that fusion reactors just might be cheaper to make than gas or coal power stations. Some of the designs being developed don't need turbines, so there's a major saving there.

But this isn't going to be until after 2030. All the fantasies of a "green" world in eight years are just that -- fantasies.

Those of us who live in the NE of England will welcome a couple of degrees of warming. It will give us a climate more like Bournemouth.

Life is certainly going to be hard for the Iraquis.

Don Cox

Elby the Beserk said...

Don Cox said...
The only hope for reducing global warming is that fusion reactors just might be cheaper to make than gas or coal power stations. Some of the designs being developed don't need turbines, so there's a major saving there.
Don Cox

3:13 pm
Problem, Don - ice core samples from both Greenland & Antarctica, the gold standard proxies for climate history, show the planet has been cooling for 7k years, as per the classic interstadial pattern - rapid temperature rise out of deep ice age, warming for a couple of k years, then gradual cooling, with warm periods interspersed, each cooler than the last. And then back into a full ice again.

There are also more and more scientists stating that solar activity (we see as sunspots) has a huge effect on warming and cooling. The end of the last century had solar activity higher than in the past 8k years (which fits the above assertion)

"The Sun is more active now than over the last 8000 years
An international team of scientists has reconstructed the Sun's activity over the last 11 millennia and forecasts decreased activity within a few decades

OCTOBER 28, 2004
The activity of the Sun over the last 11,400 years, i.e., back to the end of the last ice age on Earth, has now for the first time been reconstructed quantitatively by an international group of researchers led by Sami K. Solanki from the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research (Katlenburg-Lindau, Germany). The scientists have analyzed the radioactive isotopes in trees that lived thousands of years ago. As the scientists from Germany, Finland, and Switzerland report in the current issue of the science journal "Nature" from October 28, one needs to go back over 8,000 years in order to find a time when the Sun was, on average, as active as in the last 60 years. Based on a statistical study of earlier periods of increased solar activity, the researchers predict that the current level of high solar activity will probably continue only for a few more decades."

Current activity as low as the previous solar cycle and the current cycle 25 is lower than it has been since the Maunder Minimum, aka The Little Ice Age. More and more papers and scientists are pointing at solar activity being the controller, not C02.

Of course the media ignores them, as this is a heretical view. Even if history, even in the 20th c alone shows clearly that CO2 is not directly related to temperature (viz. 1 degree C cooling 1940 to 70 - all those lovely winters sledging up in Cheshire as a kid! Yet CO2 levels were well on the up)

Lots of papers here,

and I would recommend especially looking at Zharkhova's work on this and Svensmark's work on cloud nucleation from cosmic rays - low solar activity allows far more cosmic rays into the atmosphere, creating more clouds, hence cooling

Sadly, most trust the govt and the media on this matter. If we go into cooling whilst implementing NetZero, politicians will be hunted down with sharp pointy sticks.

Remember "The Science" (as per CAGW & Covid) does not mean "science". It means science perverted by ideology. Lysenkoism.

Elby the Beserk said...

Don - more for you on this "warming". Would be nice were it true, as humanity thrives in the warmth and struggles in the cold. Many many more people die of cold rather than heat, here and world wide.

No real warming in the UK for 30 years. Oh and by the way, if you want to know why some many graphs start around 1979/80, it's because that's when the (now long over) Late 20th Century Warming period ended.

There's also more and more evidence that the urban heat island, largely discounted by the climate loonies, has far more effect on temperature than recognised; for example, in the USA, is only rural temperature recording sites are assessed, cooling has been taking place.

A really good place to keep an eye on the jiggery-pokery these anti-science freaks have been up to, bookmark Tony Heller's - he's been banned from Twitter, a good inclination that he speaks the truth!

"Temperatures across the U.K. have barely moved for over a decade compared to the latest 30-year average. The Met Office has, belatedly, dropped the 1980s from its trend line (unbroken red on graph above) and added in data from the 2010s. As the graph shows, the move helps highlight the flatlining trend that has been evident for some time.

Across the planet, warming ran out of steam some time ago. Both surface and satellite data show no warming for over seven years. In the U.K., last year was 0.34°C colder than 2020 and the coldest year since 2015. The 2010s were colder than the 2000s. In central England, the year was as cool as 1733, 1779 and 1779. This sort of inconvenient data has led the Met Office and most mainstream media to focus on individual weather events. They have promoted the idea that such events suggest humans are changing the climate by burning fossil fuel."

Anonymous said...

Elby - Sun is a newspaper. The large orange/yellow thing is the sun.

Why anyone wants to check journalists activity over the last 11,400 years is beyond me - but you never know.

PS Well done E-K. Could you retrain for the predictions for the horses?