Tuesday, 15 February 2022

Revealing Pictures of Russian Military Preparations

OK, so I last looked at Russian military kit in detail, in earnest, almost exactly 30 years ago.  And guess what?  Almost everything we've seen so far from the Russian side of that messy border is of just that vintage, i.e. 35-40 years old (because they hadn't done much innovating after the fall of the Berlin Wall).  

We are led to believe they have in fact made some serious strides in, for example, AA equipment, but they ain't showing that.

What do we infer?  There might be several hypotheses, not all mutually exclusive by any means:

  • Naturally, they do have some modern kit - but maybe not in large quantities
  • They reckon they can do the job quite comfortably with the old stuff
  • The units they are deploying - at least for the cameras - are not front-line troops: Russian policy has long been to scrap nothing, but to relegate it to equipping reserve formations
  • They have no desire either to expose the new stuff to close inspection (recalling how much they *enjoyed* their own ringside seat at NATO's extravaganza in 1991 - see my Kuwait account ad nauseam); or, of course, to see plum bits of new kit embarrassingly captured
Anyhow, it's a feast of déjà vu for old Soviet hands like meself ...  If I find a bit of time I might make up a bit of a photo-feature.

ND

24 comments:

Anonymous said...

Soviet equipment has always, always been inferior to the west.

Soviet era doctrine allowed for that with superior numbers and parity of quality of equipment in some key front line areas. Radar. Light Anti Aircraft guns. ground to air missiles. Front line fighters. Artillery. Small arms. Attack Helicopters. Air transport.

Often when non Soviet forces fought non NATO forces armed with western equipment, they lost, or at best, managed a poor draw.
Comfort for NATO.

Would the Russian military do better? With the equipment upgrades that were never permitted to Egypt of Libya or Syria?
Suspect the answer is very much a yes. Training, belief and leadership is more important than defence of the homeland when the missiles fly.

Those ARVN and Afghan and Syrian and Iraqi western equipped battalions melted away in their own country next to their own homes.
Would the Ukrainians do any better than the Afghans?
They know they cannot win a war with Russia.

James Higham said...

Meanwhile, the real war rages on in Canada and around the world.

Elby the Beserk said...

James Higham - quite so. Am most invigorated by the Canadian Truckers, and beyond appalled at the narcissist Trudeau and his doubling down on every stupid thing he does. Would be good to see Parliament condemning Trudeau for his actions. Not holding my breath after the past two years of them rolling on their backs and waving their legs in the air, and that after a long time doing their damnedest to scupper Brexit.

Who to trust?

None of them, I'd say. Least of all that little shit* Johnson

* one of my old man's favourite phrases for such lowlifes

Wildgoose said...

I remember a similar dismissive attitude to Russian tech during the cold war, mocking that a military aircraft was using valves. Until it was pointed out that this aircraft, unlike NATO aircraft, would survive a nearby nuclear EMP (Electro-Magnetic Pulse).

I also remember that the MiG29 and Sukhoi Su-27 aircraft can deploy mesh doors over their air intakes in order to prevent Foreign Object Damage on take-off. The thing is, war is messy and chaotic and you can't guarantee your runway has been swept clean.

In WW2 the Germans had better machine guns than the British, but ours were cheap, mass-produced and practical. As Stalin supposedly said, Quantity has a quality of its own.

I wouldn't be so dismissive of Russian pragmatism.

Nick Drew said...

Anon: @ Those ARVN and Afghan and Syrian and Iraqi western equipped battalions melted away in their own country next to their own homes

yes, but they were essentially certain they would lose, like the French in 1940, and the majority's main aim became "survive this coming transition with the minimum of damage - death is a lot worse than bowing the knee to the coming regime"

very few people are ideologically wedded to any cause whatever (see, e.g. The Common Man in A Man For All Seasons), and fewer still are willing to die for it when they are sure it's the losing cause

now Ukraine ... does anyone seriously think Russia intends to do the full invade-and-100%-occupy-in-perpetuity thing? OK, not so many will die to save the Donbass. But Ukr is a big, big place; and Ukr nationalism is a real thing

Think Finland in 1939-1940

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War#/media/File:Finnish_areas_ceded_in_1940.png

Anonymous said...

Not convinced there was ever going to be an invasion, just Putin posturing and the US capitalising on this to make Biden look good, as he can now claim his tough words prevented a war (that was never going to happen):

https://apnews.com/article/vladimir-putin-alexander-lukashenko-ukraine-europe-russia-19b163e10f55eb97e46445ce516c30a0

Russia, Belarus to hold joint war games early next year

December 29, 2021

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, listens to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko during their meeting at Konstantin Palace in Strelna, outside St. Petersburg, Russia, Wednesday, Dec. 29, 2021. (Alexei Nikolsky, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)
1 of 3
Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, listens to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko during their meeting at Konstantin Palace in Strelna, outside St. Petersburg, Russia, Wednesday, Dec. 29, 2021. (Alexei Nikolsky, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

MOSCOW (AP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday that Russia and Belarus will hold joint war games early next year.

Putin welcomed Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s proposal to hold another round of military drills, saying that they could be held in February or March. Speaking during a meeting with Lukashenko in St. Petersburg, he added that military officials will coordinate details.


Don Cox said...

". does anyone seriously think Russia intends to do the full invade-and-100%-occupy-in-perpetuity thing?"

Putin did in Chechnya.

Don

dearieme said...

Is the whole thing a US invention to distract from Biden's failings? Dunno, but the US establishment has lied throughout the panicdemic so why would it be seized by devotion to the truth over Ukraine/Russia?

Nick Drew said...

Don - @ Putin did in Chechnya

well yes, but (a) very much smaller; (b) did anybody else care very much? & (c) would he really have done so with the benefit of hindsight??

Wildgoose said...

Ukraine is more like Yugoslavia. Southern and Eastern Ukraine is heavily Russian. In the North-West it is more Polish - Lvov is historically a Polish city.

So No, Putin will certainly not invade the whole of Ukraine. He might be goaded into seizing the ethnically (and historically) Russian part though.

And goading is the right word to use given the actions of the Biden regime.

E-K said...

I'm hoping he does invade.

I pinned my flag to the 21st and told some people that a wise blogger gave me a good tip.

Anonymous said...

According to Hannan: Putin has already won.

https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2022/02/daniel-hannan-putin-has-has-shown-the-west-to-be-dithering-divided-and-drippy.html

M.

DJK said...

Debt as a % of GDP: UK 103%, Russia 18%
Steel production: 7.1 MT/year, Russia 71.6 MT/year
Main battle tanks: UK 148, Russia 2800

Sometimes quantity really does have a quality of its own.

Nick Drew said...

BTW, there is also Xi in the wings, really hoping for an actual, outright land-grab - of more than just a nibble or two at the edges - to test out Western responses

Thud said...

Ukrainian armed forces seem well equipped and motivated, the Russians can certainly beat them but at what cost? the Chechens bled them dry and they had a fraction of the manpower available to Ukraine.

Anomalous Cowshed said...

Well, it's all terribly fascinating.

Particularly, given this post by Adam Tooze (author of the Wages of Destruction and The Great Deluge)

https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-81-permanent-crisis-or

Now, what's interesting is the difference between Ukrainian economic performance (it's bloody awful) and the Polish. And the existence of the EAEU.

The Poles joined NATO, and the EU. The important bit being the EU. This meant that they got rich - or a damn sight better off as institutions and the economy got reformed along the lines the Washington Consensus. The Ukrainians did neither, and flip-flopped between the EU and EAEU. And achieved fuck-all.

So, the partners Russia currently has in the EAEU (being Soviet Union v2.0, but without the horrible Marxist-Leninist economics bits) are, er, um, not much kop.

What Russia needs to make the EAEU work, is the Ukraine, as their primary exports are not energy commodities. Ukrainian membership of the EU has to be avoided at all costs. A rich-er Ukraine can not be easily pushed about.

Further, assume that the whole Crimea/Donbass adventure has turned into nothing more than a money-pit. Since energy prices are high right now Russia can easily afford a wee spot of military adventuring as hard cash flows into the Treasury. It's a lot better than taking a punt on energy prices rising after you've paid all the conscripts.

So, at this point, the aim is to pressure the Ukrainian government into giving some sort of concessions WRT to Crimea/Donbass - like "Please turn the water back on, as we've built this sodding useless bridge". Or something.

But, there's this https://oec.world/en/profile/country/ukr?flowSelector1=flow1. Scroll down to Market Growth, and look at Ukrainian Import substitution '18-'19. Russian imports collapsed, 'cos, well, and Turkish imports exploded. Turkey isn't a member of the EU. And EAEU membership specifically excludes EU membership.

There's history here. Given the Russian Civil War - remember that Lenin basically attempted to throw everyone else (the whites, the Greens the Blacks) under the bus at Brest-Litovsk, and the Holodomor, and elements of WWII look a wee bit like Russian Civil War v2.0. Right now, it might be v3.0.

Plus, the Russian State is less recognisably liberal-ish, Western-ish, more Medieval Court. So Putin needs something out of all this, lest the West provokes an internal Succession Crisis. Which could easily be down right nasty. And there is an EU member that within living memory, machine-gunned a head of state up against a wall. And his family.

Happy Days.

Bill Quango MP said...

Very interesting.
I had no idea Ukraine was such a failure. They should have been one of the better off former ussr countries. Agriculture reform would have netted them at least a Polish level of growth.

But Ukraine is in the bottom of the world tables for GDP growth. Has been..well..forever.

Elby the Beserk said...

Nick Drew said...

very few people are ideologically wedded to any cause whatever (see, e.g. The Common Man in A Man For All Seasons), and fewer still are willing to die for it when they are sure it's the losing cause

10:19 am
================================================
Indeed. I recently read Peter Ackroyd's excellent bio of Thomas More, which led me to watching A Man For All Seasons again for the first time in decades. If you haven't seen it - do. If you have, treat yourself and watch it again.

@Anon - 3:02pm. Yes, that is clear. He's made Biden look an idiot (not hard, sure, given that Joe does that most days he opens his mouth, regardless...)

Anonymous said...

As @Anomalous points out, membership of the EU is a very valuable status to have. The extremities of the EU are subject to their economic gravity in one form or another.

Russia uses their energy and military might to get *some* concessions. The UK - not so much.

Bill Quango MP said...

Adam Tooze is a really good economic historian. First class.

The wages of Destruction is about the Nazi pre war and war economy and is a highly regarded, readable work on the subject.

Very apt for the current times.

Anonymous said...

Why in God's name are we fronting a battle group in Estonia (? which is the top one?) when we cannot defend our own borders?

I used to enjoy watching the Ukrainian aircraft at Fairford, but the Russians can't have been too chuffed seeing the Mig-29 (great display, literally stopping in mid-air, balanced on its tail), SU-27 and the rest on the tarmac, being examined by NATO people.

Anonymous said...

"Soviet equipment has always, always been inferior to the west."

Katyusha? AK47?

IIRC Churchill/Roosevelt, having sent a load of Western hardware to Russia (admittedly stuff they didn't want themselves like the P-39), asked for details of some of the Soviet stuff like the Katyusha. They didn't get them.

I thought the T34 and KV were considered pretty good tanks - better than our early WW2 stuff. When we sent light Valentines and Matildas over to Russia as scouts, they found they couldn't keep up with T34s!

Anonymous said...

In fact the story of Ukraine's Soviet weaponry is definitely one that should be told - after all, they would have had top-grade kit. Did Air Force people remove or downgrade electronics/radars etc - and what of ground installations - were they all immediately opened to NATO scrutiny (in other words US technicians?).

Anonymous said...

I think it was this display I saw, amazing stuff! At one stage the pilot parked it on its tail, zero speed in any direction, then just let the nose fall forward and off he went again.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BdVJPZAKAQE