Monday 28 February 2022

West taking gambles and risks too quickly

 A goof debate on the last thread, the situation in Ukraine moves quickly and it has become the most dangerous crisis of my lifetime in short order.

Russia is defeated, if not on the ground then in the world opinion. The crazy nations like North Korea, Brazil and Iran are not going to save Russia. Even India and China are staying neutral. 

The huge sanctions placed on Russia are going to bite much more quickly than Putin imagined. Equally, the ground war is taking much longer and maybe much more bloody than expected. 

The West is full of preening Politico's and media today very pleased with themselves at Unity and the usual # mentality - echoes of "#Bring back our Girls".

In the real world, we are at the most dangerous point now. Putin won't stand a loss. Heavy and horrible weapons will be used on cities. Already Katyusha's fall on Karkiv which is a Russian populated city. Putin also darkly threatens nuclear retaliation of the real kind. 

I understand the West is also concerned to send China the right message re Taiwan, that this could be your fate too, but this is very risky. Indeed, I can't believe cool heads are war-gaming this properly because the chance of nuclear weapons being used is climbing - from an infinitesimally low number to something in the low digits percentages. Much like the Cuban missile crisis. 

Of course, if Putin is going to end up destroying the world whether we deter him this week or not makes little difference, it is up to the Russian army alone to fix the problem. However, some calmer thought and more work behind the scenes instead of in front of the camera's is desperately needed. 


dearieme said...

I suppose Putin's wonderfully long table is his defence against the chap with a briefcase bomb.

andrew said...

On war gaming, I think we are heading towards

If you pull back because of that threat once, logically you will give in until _you_ are directly existentially threatened.
So in the UK we do nothing - stuff nato - until they steam up the thames.

So as long as you stay outside their borders (*) just ignore

Put another way, dont pay danegeld.

(*) exactly what the borders are is part of this war - and as russia is still likely to 'win' a bit academic.

DJK said...

I find it rather worrying that we're not offering Putin a way out of this. Maybe there is serious diplomacy happening behind closed doors, but in public, Putin's options either seem to be to double down, or to withdraw and accept regime change in Moscow, and probably surrender the home of the Black Sea Fleet in Crimea to the USN. I don't think the Chinese would be keen to see Russia become a US puppet, so I think China will back him to an extent. Then again, it's hard to tell with Xi. For once, inscrutable is an appropriate description.

Anonymous said...

Starkey's perspective. Thought provoking.

E-K said...
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E-K said...
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E-K said...

The best we can hope for is if Putin draws a line at the river Dnieper and we revert back to a cold war situation with a closed Russian society and nukes silently pointed to us like the good old days. We can breath a sigh of relief and thank our lucky stars.

We can but dream for a situation which is still a thousand times as shit as the one we had two weeks ago.

The economic impact (after Covid) - especially the Russian impact on London - is yet to come.

Even an overthrow of Putin (as everyone seems to want) can lead to a Russia something like Iran but with thousands of nuclear missiles and a visceral, targeted, hatred of Britain.

The EU and Nato have basically fingered the crazy ex girlfriend of the psycho who lives over the road (Ukraine is a loony bin too - not Hero's Ville as depicted) and the EU are still swaggering around in front of their mates like Finger Boy not realising they are about to get a baseball batting.

Ukraine even means "borderland" in translation, which is ironic. It is the geographic equivalent of woman with a post-it-note on her forehead marked "Crazy Ex GF. Leave The Fuck Alone !"

We're going to all out war and most of us are going to die. Head Girl Truss has let the cat out of the bag. "European democracy is under threat" (we know .... by the EU !) "Go fight for Ukraine."

What a total cunt.

If that's an indication of what's going on in No10 heads it should certainly not be in the public view for Russia to see.

There are no wise heads to stop it. Only plenty of fools like Truss to make it happen.

If I sound grim it's because the situation is grim.

Now I know how the helmsman on the Titanic felt. Part of a minority trying to turn around a near universal opinion that's been corrupted by a BBC and MSM that lies, tells half truths and which actually hates our own people more than they do Putin.

We even have Zelenskyy supported in the UK by women because he is hot, apparently - making great use of their emancipation then. Bring your popcorn to the Shit Show. YOU'RE in it.

I also now know how it must feel to be the one who flew over the cuckoo's nest or to be told I have a terminal illness and limited time left.

Supporting Ukraine is not brave and it's not clever and nor is it virtuous. It is a borderland full of murdering bastards on both sides and you have been duped into lining up to die for the EU land grab that went too far. Get caught actually fighting for Ukraine and you deserve the flaying or boiling alive that you're likely to get (Truss doesn't tell you about this sort of thing. Probably doesn't even know it happens.)

The only threat to EU democracy is the EU itself.

The organisation is malignant and is a disaster of epic proportions.

It has to go.

DJK said...

Anon: Thanks for the link. Starkey is very good on the history.

E-K said...

Ah. But Starkey won't do. He said something a bit naughty a while back so that's his knowledge, wisdom and ideas cancelled.

Anonymous said...

I must say UK politicians and UK media seem to have been sniffing glue or petrol. I've never heard such foolishness. And as ever, those least likely to be in arms are the loudest.

Peskov (asked why Russia put nuclear forces on alert): "There were unacceptable statements about possible conflict situations and even confrontations and clashes between Nato and Russia. I will not name the authors of these statements, although it was the British foreign secretary"

The Guardian, Mail and BBC are in lockstep war hysteria, never a good sign. R5 told me this morning that Putin wasn't just evil, he was mad as well, despite (or because of) the fact that he said again and again that Ukraine was a red line as far as NATO membership was concerned.

Apparently our special forces (SAS/SBS/RM commandos) are at full alert. Why, if we are not going to fight in Ukraine?

I've never despised our media and political classes more.

DJK said...

"I'm an old-fashioned historian; I believe in encountering the past on its own terms and I believe in encountering Putin on his terms" Starkey

Thud said...

Most deals are done behind closed doors and I would imagine the same here. Putin will get his 'victory' but he himself will be shunted aside.

Anonymous said...

Thanks DJK.
Another perspective that might interest:


Anonymous said...

not sure i agree with many of the sentiments about Russia failing.
sure they have got off to a slow start, but isn't this something seen before where the low quality/expendable lot go in first. then they follow up with expensive stuff to make the real mess of things.
the next 2-3 days will show if this is the case, then the cities will be properly ruined. lets hope that Poland doesn't end up being dragged in by somehow allowing jets to fly from their territory.
batten down the hatches, its not going to be pretty.

dearieme said...

Can't we just send M. Turdwater to the war zone to preach sweetness and light? I'm sure Canada will be better off without him and eastern Europe will gain enormously by his presence. He could even wear blackface to amuse the barbarians in that part of the world.

jim said...

Cast our minds forward say two months - to May 2022. Russia will likely have occupied Ukraine but then what.

Possibly some diplomatic moves to get Putin away from Western Ukraine. Russia and Russians will suffer from sanctions but Putin will not care, he will have tightened his grip on Ukraine and on internal Russia. We will end up with an unholy balance between Putin and his gas tap and the West holding the sanctions card.

There may be insurgencies and acts of bravery from Ukrainian people but unless the West is prepared to take on Russia militarily not much will happen. Slowly slowly the sale of expensive apartment blocks in London will resume - but via circuitous routes requiring expensive lawyers. Sales of wallpaper will resume.

What then. It must have been very boring for Mr Putin running a gas station with atom bombs. Nothing to do all day but count the money, no industry, no research & development, just Gucci handbags and whores. The only real worry, who would depose him and take over the handbags and whores.

The West will take a hit from losing Russian trade for a while, but it will slowly creep back and 'friendly' relations resume. The only thing to do is make sure those friendly relations are expensive. Until Mr Putin or his successor get bored once again.

DJK said...

Anon: Thanks. The Tablet is good too, particularly on the murky background or Hunter Biden and Russiagate. Rather predictably, the papers are crying out "War Crime!" this morning.

DJK said...

Nice turn of phrase from a US based commentator: " also have several NATO countries that are far more gung ho than the US one of which is Britain (who needs to just take a five year chill out)."

An indeed, a period of silence from our leaders would be much appreciated.

Nick Drew said...

@ I can't believe cool heads are war-gaming this properly

= one of the legion problems of having a thing like Boris at the top. In desperation, (and with no Cummings on hand) he'll say anything that comes into his head. And with Boris being visibly on the rocks, wannabes with their tails up like Truss will also say anything that comes into their heads

not clear to me, though, that Putin is as strategically sharp as some people seem to think

thanks for excellent Starkey and Tablet links, BTW

E-K said...

Send Delia Smith - she's talking wonderful One-World sense on R2 at the moment.

The very antithesis of that nasty Prof Starky. I feel purged of all inner toxicity. *sarc*

I've no problem with our special forces veterans having their mid-life adventure in Ukraine - probably cheaper than buying a Harley. But Truss came dangerously close to making it 'in our name.'

This is the EU we're defending here, not Ukraine, remember.

E-K said...

Nick - The Americans started the Iraq invasion with Shock and Awe.

Putin's columns just rolled in to fresh resistance by the looks of it. And their tank drivers have been shown to be human/soft/un-battle ready by their reluctance to run people over.

I wonder how many have been stopped by this method and ambushed from the sides.

Anonymous said...

Andrew - "So in the UK we do nothing - stuff nato - until they steam up the thames."

The only way the Russians might steam up the Thames is if it gets vapourised in a nuclear exchange. Despite what you will have heard 300,000 times in the last week, Putin is not Hitler - he's more 1961 Kennedy or Krushchev. Like Kennedy he doesn't want missiles on his doorstep pointed at him. There are things called flight times.

I remember "Shock and Awe", E-K - and I remember we got lots of pics and video from a distance, bloodied or dead Iraqi children were definitely NOT on the media agenda. The Russians are trying to do "Invasion Nice" - or as nice as is possible in wartime. They didn't shoot that girl who did a drive by petrol bombing of an APC. An Iraqi girl would have been shot to bits in 2003.

ND - I when I see FIFA and the Olympic committee so swiftly banning Russia, even Switzerland (the country even the Communists wished to spare in order that a "true price" still existed somewhere) - I worry that all this has been organised well in advance, and that maybe even some people wanted it to happen. You might know - do the Russian nuclear forces still have a "dead man's handle", so that (when activated) if radiation is detected and the launchers can't get through to HQ, they fire anyway?

It's particularly worrying when our PM and Foreign Secretary are such imbeciles - makes you long for the days of Callaghan and Denis Healy.

Anonymous said...

Also, does anyone know where you can get potassium iodide 65mg tablets in the UK? Available on US Amazon but not here.

(They stuff your thyroid with iodine so you don't take up the radioactive stuff in fallout)

Not expecting WW3 but a bit of prepping costs very little, particularly to protect children and young people. Could you see the NHS distribution services working in a nuclear exchange?

Elby the Beserk said...

Anonymous said...

Not expecting WW3 but a bit of prepping costs very little, particularly to protect children and young people. Could you see the NHS distribution services working in a nuclear exchange?

9:45 am

They don't work now and haven't done for decades. The NHS has had it. If they get any action correct in a sequence of reactions to whatever disease, it's a miracle. This has been our clear experience these past few weeks, where they bugger up everything and don't listen to the patient. Exempla gratia - said patient tells numerous doctors she is allergic to Lactose so meds with it on are a no no. She tells a dietician the same. Response from dietician - "bollocks" (in effect), you have no allergies (despite bloods showing clearly there are many).

Result, at discharge, main med presented - full of Lactose.

As for Our GP "practice" (now well practiced at fending patients off, is all) is even worse.

Useless. NHS is now in full self-preservation mode, the ultimate end of all bloatocracies.

Anonymous said...

Dom is definitely NOT a WW3 fan.

"For yrs: ‘Dom why do you bang on about nuclear war, WMD, military procurement, bio terror, how our shit politicians & media cd destroy everything, nobody cares you just look weird’

Today: the Pundit Clown Prince + MPs trying to start WW3 to win the Twitter-hysteria arms race"

I must say Dan Hodges is really crap. To think he's Glenda's son!

Anonymous said...

I see UK firms and pension funds are being forced to unload Russian assets just as they hit rock bottom prices. Ain't capitalism great - buy high, forced sell low!

Anonymous said...

But the French ..

"Meanwhile, France’s TotalEnergies condemned Moscow’s military aggression in Ukraine and said it would not fund new projects in Russia. However, it held on to its 19.4% stake in Novatek, Russia’s largest producer of liquefied natural gas."

Anonymous said...

Dont know much about potassium iodide but you can get cerebos iodized salt in Waitrose.

Anonymous said...

"while European natural gas prices have surged, the US market has been unaffected"

So our industries are killed and we buy our food and fertiliser from the US? IIRC nitrate fertiliser production is energy intensive.

No wonder the Septics are pushing this war.