"Jack Watling said in a recent paper that to survive in the east, Ukrainian forces needed to “prevent the Russians from being able to concentrate their efforts on one axis at a time” by continuing to counter-attack in and around Kyiv. In other words, Russia’s new strategy is to try to concentrate its forces to achieve a breakthrough. Ukraine, meanwhile, has to find a way of making the invaders’ original multiple-front offensive continue to work against itself, by keeping the fighting spread out." [my emphasis]
This may be right: but if the Russians are now trying for a breakthrough on a single axis, they really have thrown the Red Army playbook out of the window. Do they have a single general who's capable of improv on this scale and with these stakes?
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'Breakthrough' or 'breakout' is a concept that armchair military commentators assume is kinda obvious - it's what tanks are for, right? Well, there are certainly great examples of breakthrough in the conflicts that are close to home for us: Monty breaking out at Caen (eventually) and the Americans to the west and south of Normandy.
But it played no strategic part in Soviet military thinking, which was essentially oriented towards parallel progress on multiple axes across a front, departing from parallel forward movement - in an individual thrust, being one of several - if and whenever and to the extent that an obstacle, natural or man-made, was in danger of halting the advance (as I summarised in the second parts of this, and again in this). Manoeuvre - another Red Army obsession, along with firepower and speed - was to be by way of an attacking rugby player's 'step' - dodge the head-on tackle by swerving to one side whilst maintaining momentum and aiming to resume the direct forward line immediately, ideally leaving the defender grasping at thin air. It's a skill, an art (think Jason Robinson): it takes practice.
There's some evidence that the initial phase of the Russian invasion of Ukraine was planned as a classic Red Army series of multi-axis parallel advances, on each of several fronts, aiming (unsuccessfully) to be swift in their penetration. But they didn't seem to attempt even the rudiments of manoeuvre - the quality and competence of troops and leadership involved didn't run to anything more tactically adroit than steaming along the open roads. And it's not obvious they brought anything like the requisite firepower to bear (difficult if, in your arrogance and ignorance, you don't think you need to wait for a big preparatory barrage by air and land AND you remain in line astern on the road).
If these jokers can't execute according to basic Red Army doctrine, how much less likely are they to be able to come up with, and successfully carry through, a new doctrine on the hoof? The type of strategic-scale axis-shifting being contemplated (by these western observers) takes a Patton to devise and execute, and an army (like the USA's) truly skillful at logistics. Don't see it here, meself.
ND
35 comments:
May we dispense with any notion that the Russians planned to take Nato countries ? They are clearly incapable.
It is used as the argument for a no-fly zone.
@EK
Don't confuse planning with evidently incapable. Putin *may* have had an eye on the Baltics when he figured they'd rapidly take Ukraine, that reality brutally interceded doesn't the remove the possibility.
Nevertheless, there isn't going to be a no fly zone, no matter how much it is asked. NATO doesn't want war with Russia, and I doubt Putin wants one with NATO - he's no doubt having thoughts that the same people who've been assuring him about the army, are also assuring him of the state of the nuclear deterrent.
And given the current invasion has been going through Generals like Spinal Tap went through drummers, who knows, there may be a Patten further down the ranks who'll get their day in their sun (and in plain view of snipers.)
I wouldn't rely on The Guardian for an explanation of Russian tactics and strategy. And to criticize the Russians because they're not following cold war Red Army doctrines is to believe that we know what it was they intended to do in the first place. Scott Ritter and Larry Johnson (numerous places on the interwebs) think the Russians are doing splendidly, given the clear numerical superiority that the Ukranian forces had over the Russian invaders.
In other news, the Rouble has gone back to its pre-war rate against the USD, the Russian stock market is soaring, and from Friday, Russia will demand payment for gas/oil in Roubles from unfriendly countries. As yet, the EU has refused the new payment terms. Be interesting to see who blinks first.
DJK said...
I wouldn't rely on The Guardian for an explanation of Russian tactics and strategy.
======================================================
I wouldn't rely on the Guardian for anything. Simple as that. Do people still read it? And more to the point, trust its endless stream of hysteria?
I have heard a lot of talk about Russia's "goals", but for some reason they all seem like made up nonsense to me. Maybe it was because I was paying attention when Russia stated their "red lines" and maybe because I actually bothered to read their stated aims for starting this war in the first place.
Funny that.
Meanwhile, as DJK says, the rouble has now risen back to its level at the start of the war. Russia is demanding to be paid in roubles for its gas from tomorrow. The same Western nations that have frozen (seized) half of Russia's assets held in dollar-denominated accounts and denied Russia access to making payments in dollars are now aghast that Russia will no longer take payment in dollars.
Seriously? What did they think would happen?
We're being led by clowns who have provoked a war and huge amounts of human suffering and who are now doing untold damage to us by applying sanctions that hurt us more than the country being sanctioned. It's madness.
CH
Putin is likened to Hitler FGS.
Hitler had 15 million troops to do what he did. Putin only 100,000 or so dedicated to Ukraine (around 800,000 troops stuck on Russian border duties.)
It is clear that Ukraine was his one and only plan.
He has been poked, he's responded and now he's being accused of wanting to take the whole of Eastern Europe back and recreate the USSR.
Patently untrue.
DJK: "And to criticize the Russians because they're not following cold war Red Army doctrines is to believe that we know what it was they intended to do in the first place."
Also criticizing Russia because they've not adopted the goals Western armchair 'generals' set for them.
Basically, C@W writers are Neocon's. And fascist sympathizing Neocons at that.
Elby the Beserk: "Do people still read it" [The Guardian]
The Guardian like many 'left' leaning media, benefited from huge cross subsidy, from in part the BBC, since the BBC placed all their job adverts in the Guardian for about the last thirty years. Also the local authorities, up to the same trick.
Notice how all the public sector money is laundered through the Guardian and us muppets pay for it.
Nelson: "Never mind manoeuvres always go at them."
Does this mean the Russian generals think they are in charge of sailing ships?
A pretty accurate read on the situation Nick.Putin will get some of what he wants but at a cost and with an unknown train of events for both him and Russia over next few years, did he really want to be owned by China? because one way or another thats the way he is headed.
As for rouble and market they are both on life support from Russian govt intervention and when that diminishes as it will they are both headed for the bargain bin.
Anybody who wants a less innacurate take on the situation in the Ukraine would do well to stay clear of Western media outlets who have done nothing more than spew propaganda and wishful thinking since the start of the conflict. Yet people still swallow wholesale the obvious lies and disinformation coming from pro Zelensky organisations.
See `Bellingcat` if you want to know what I mean.
Most of the more valuable intel is coming from Telegram and other, less conventional channels.
And really, the Guardian?
Lets not forget that Western Europe and America is not the whole world - China, Africa, South America and the Middle East couldn't give a fig about what America want - especially with the Neocons in charge and a clearly mentally deficient Biden as their frontman.
If they are made to conform with American Sanctions against Rusiia it will come at a cost.
As for Russia - a country with vast natural resources, little debt, and a mountain of gold - I'm not entirely convinced that the Ruble is such a bad bet. You only have to look at the Sociopathic clowns that run the West to wonder if it Russia that is going to come off worse in the long term.
"Putin only 100,000 or so dedicated to Ukraine "
I think it was 150,000.
My definition of a Fascist is one who believes that violence is a good first solution to any social or political problem. Mussolini (and his Futurist fans) gloried in activity and power. Fascists can be left-wing (Mussolini and Hitler) or right wing (Hungarian and Spanish).
Don
“If they are made to conform with American Sanctions against Rusiia it will come at a cost.
As for Russia - a country with vast natural resources, little debt, and a mountain of gold - I'm not entirely convinced that the Ruble is such a bad bet. You only have to look at the Sociopathic clowns that run the West to wonder if it Russia that is going to come off worse in the long term. “
The Iranian rial is currently the second weakest circulating currency in the world after Venezuelan Bolivar.
Today, 30 March 2022, with one United States dollar equaling 42,279.2 IRR rial.
Two of the richest countries in the world in oil wealth.
I wouldn’t bet on the Rouble against the Dollar just yet.
The bounce back of the rouble has been well documented in the last week.
“ Since the invasion, India has signed contracts to buy six million barrels of oil from Russia – half as much as it bought during the whole of 2021. Why? Because Russian oil is going at a discount of around $30 a barrel. Between them, India and China could easily mop up any oil which the West refuses to buy from Russia – and if those countries decide that they don’t want to join the boycott there is nothing we can do about it.”
The Spectator.
And gas and coal sales, to their unfriendly western buyers, are generating huge bonuses for the Russian economy.
However, as Iran found out, being blacklisted does eventually rule you out of doing much business outside of your markets with your aligned countries.
Bill, and not much leeway on price negotiation when your buyers are the only game in town.
"The Iranian rial is currently the second weakest circulating currency in the world after Venezuelan Bolivar."
You are of course correct. But how much of that is because of the economic warfare being waged upon them by America and its proxies?
Yes, their economies are not well run, as is Russias, but it's been the long term goal of America to prevent Russia ever turning into a super power again. The only difference is that it's now being made explicit.
I don't doubt that China is paying very close attention to America's behaviour and wondering how it can protect itself from similar sorts of action against itself, which is surely coming.
You will note that for decades, despite the promise of China being a huge market, that they have deliberatley and specifically prevented foreign interests from having major influence within their economy. They have their own equivelent of Amazon, Google, Twitter etc. No foreign media to pour American propaganda into the ears of unwitting dupes. They have their own version of Hollywood and so on.
Russia has now learned the hard way that they now have to retreat from the dishonest West or cease to exist as anything other than an American satrapy. You can see this already happening with the future de-dollarization of global trade on the cards.
A certain momentum is gaining, and it will be at the expense of comfy Europeans who will soon learn that economic winds can blow in both directions.
Blokeinbrum, you and EK need to get together, not happy campers at all. Kev, you ever gonna get oop north? I'm buying.
"But how much of that is because of the economic warfare being waged upon them by America and its proxies?"
Economic pressure which is about the least that can be done against a regime that constantly working toward a second holocaust.
Don
"Economic pressure which is about the least that can be done against a regime that constantly working toward a second holocaust."
Eh? Zelensky was widely criticized in Israel when he compared the Russian invasion to the Holocaust. There's zero evidence that Russia is planning widespread killing in Ukraine. It's possible to level plenty of criticism, but not that. Or did you refer to the activities of the openly nazi Ukranian brigades against Russian speakers in Donbass?
djk, I don't think there is a person in the world who has not heard of azov and their existence being an excuse for destroying a country of 44 million is piss poor.
Thud: Agreed that Azov is not an excuse. I was objecting to the abuse of language. The Holocaust was a specific historical event, where several million people of a minority ethnic group were first relieved of their property, rights and citizenship, and then murdered. As many people recently pointed out in Israel, that is not what is happening in Ukraine. Neither is Putin a second Hitler (or whatever other hate figure you care to demonise.) Flinging around words like "Holocaust" gets us nowhere, as it just relieves Putin, Zelensky, Biden et al of any agency and turns real, fallen human beings into cardboard monsters.
Israel is interesting, as despite being an American protectorate, the Israeli government has not implemented any sanctions. In fact, sanctions against Russia seem to have been limited to EU and Nato countries (bar Turkey), plus Japan. Make of that what you will.
@DJK
The comment I replied to was about Iran. That regime is rightly subject to sanctions partly because of their campaign to wipe out Israel.
Don
Don Cox: Apologies. I misunderstood.
At the risk of sounding stupid how much do you think Putin knows about what is going on. The people who report to him are scared of him so I doubt he has an accurate picture of what is happening. Personally I know that I don’t know what is going on in any detail but I do know that the Ukraine was and probably is a corrupt and moral black hole on the border of Europe. Putin has sanitised them by attacking when he could have got everything he wanted by threats. It was not his greatest move.
Anonymous above usually goes by the name of Charles
1. The Russians have gone from having 150k men "amassed on the Ukrainian border" to brutally invading Ukraine to getting 'beaten back' to 'ceding territory' to Ukranian forces.
Its all bullshit.
Russia has put 150k troops and shit weapons into a largely hostile theatre of 44million people and 600k sq km or territory and held the whole thing down.
2. they have lost cheap easily replaceable assets - mostly trucks and conscripts - to tie down enemy forces and used hypersonic weapons to destroy foreign troops and supplies.
3. they have fooled the West into chasing their own internal military, morality and societal values while they pursued their own National Security objectives.
4. they have undermined, if not destroyed, the Western financial/military consensus.
Oil/gas/aluminium/cobalt etc can now be bought in Rubles, Rupee and Yuan. Possibly even permanently and exclusively.
....there is so much more....
This conflict is a turning point in World history. The stratagems, feints, tactics and ruses used to (inevitably) win this conflict will be studied for centuries.
Mark these words.
Next year, when your borders are overwhelmed with starving Somalis, when you will 'see the virtue' in cycling everywhere because oil is too expensive, when your bullshit service industries disappear and 'Barista' is no longer a job, when you will compete for Rubles and Rupee, when you will go back to eating 'locally grown' foods because nobody will accept your currency in international markets.... then you will see that 'War' is not a game of personal opinion, not a shade of fake-tan, not a flavour of coffee, not a trendy brand of Romanian Olive, not a Tuscan resort.
The Russian have conquered us on every domain. They have remained steadfast - for a century - in their resolve. They have not become soft and acquiesced with the shitty-dick, transgender, vegan, BLM, Establishment, state-security, permanent-government mob.
Matt 5:44-48
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/popes-peace-prayer-ukraine-recalls-ancient-prophesy-83667038
mylfn.....your comment above wins the prize for stupid on so many levels, I need to lie down, I'll leave it to others to dissect.
Leave 'im Fud, 'snot worffit
here's an interesting take. https://dnyuz.com/2022/03/29/what-if-putin-didnt-miscalculate/
Thanks, iO. I agree with that author that it's not a good idea to assume your enemy is stupid or mad. You'd need independent evidence or you're just arguing in circles.
"They are clearly incapable."
We have yet to see how incapable ours would be vs Ivan.
"I wouldn’t bet on the Rouble against the Dollar just yet"
@BQ
Remind me again how the Rouble is doing ;-)
I'm never posting here again.
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April fools !
Speak soon Thud.
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