At the peak of its vainglorious Cold War pomp, the USA reckoned to maintain forces sufficient to fight two major wars and one minor war - simultaneously. Well, it was never put to the test. But perhaps there's the measure of a true global superpower. Putin, of course, fancies his Russia as a superpower ...
I wonder how he'd assess his standing the day after Damascus fell. To describe this as humiliating for him is an understatement: if you can't see it, you obviously don't read much from the teeming world of fiercely patriotic Russian 'milblogs'. He must own to an intelligence failure on a par with Israel's, pre October 2023; the loss of a client regime in under a fortnight; in material terms, the loss of his logistical springboard to Africa, where he aspires to a buccaneering, influential and lucrative interventionist positioning; and in political terms, the loss of prestige.
Ah, prestige. Who uses that term these days? In my earliest soldiering, I found myself briefly under the tuition of a Chief Instructor who'd fought in the closing 12 months of WW2 and in many a campaign through the '50s and 60's. He told us that everything he'd done, all across the globe, was for the sake of upholding and extending British prestige. If, today, we are too post-imperial to care about such things well, across most of the world and most definitely including Russia, prestige matters immensely.
Putin and his Russia just aren't up to it. How much does he look forward to his next meeting with Xi? With Kim? With Erdogan? The man who can't prosecute a mid-sized war in his own back yard, nor prop up a single strategically vital client on whose territory he maintains sizeable naval, army and air assets. The man who, for all his much vaunted experience of decades and supposed statecraft, even now doesn't realise that the enemy gets a vote? Even after Ukraine indeed turned out, as predicted, to be Finland rather than Georgia.
See, Volodya, superpowers need to be cognisant of how, when they extend themselves in foreign lands, it's necessary to do a great deal more than plonk down some forces, kick a little ass, and then assume everything's bought and paid for. Check out Rome in its prime, Britain, the USA - and note just what an all-enveloping, wrap-around approach needs to be taken to hold what you think you've got. How many snipers and opportunistic hit-and-runners you need to be prepared for. What all those other carping, jealous powers can do, with so little effort and just a little hostile intent, to incommode you and your positions on your faraway clients' turf. How (in the military idiom) if you want to hold the line at a river, you must hold both banks. Oh, how much all-round capability it all requires! Capability you just don't have.
If you ask me, this humiliation will result in Putin lashing out, and bodes worse for Ukraine than anything else so far. Which other cat can he kick? But even there ... the enemy has a vote.
ND
39 comments:
Not qualified to comment on the geopolitical implications but one piece of advice I’d give to anyone — colonies and imperial ambitions are, always and every time — a net drain on imperialist country who fancies having a go at it.
You need deep pockets to sustain one. The US can — just about — do this. Even then, you have to be willing to cut loose dead losses (like Afghanistan).
I could have told Putin that. But he never asked.
Putin is very lucky that the incoming US President wants to retreat from the world and put up as many barriers as possible. Gives them time to regroup and replenish.
On a side note, see Israel is acting tactically with grabbing Mount Hermon. Must have been top of their Xmas list....
Definitely a loss for Russia. A loss for Humanity in general in fact, seeing as USA/Israel have put a former ISIS deputy leader in charge of Syria. The FBI still have a $10 million bounty on his head, but no doubt that will quietly disappear. I see the UK government is already removing the ban on his terrorist organisation.
Israel expands the territory they have already seized in Syria and cuts off Hizballah from their Iranian supply chain. That should enable Israel to take more of southern Lebanon as well.
It was reported a few years ago that the USA had a hit-list of countries they wanted to take out. It began with Iraq, Syria and Libya - so they have now ticked off the first three entries on that list. I think Iran was 5th on the list, I will have to look it up.
I really don't think this is a "win" that the West should be celebrating though. It just provides yet more evidence to the "Global South" that the West are the bad guys.
And no doubt we will be suffering yet another destabilising flood of refugees. Our "leaders" really do hate us. This just looks satanic.
Oh. I thought Syria, Iran and Turkey was part of the “global majority” (I don’t think “global south” is the cheat code anymore, but I suppose it’s worth a try just on the off-chance) — with Russia as its champion? Sounds like Carl Schmitt in a dress, to me.
And I have no idea why you think Israel wants territory? Doesn’t Syria show (for Iran and Russia) just what a drain on resource conflicted territory is to maintain?
And frankly, while I don’t have a convincing or definitive version of what’s transpired, don’t we all deserve something better than “it’s all a CIA (or MOSSAD) plot”?
Hope this time it goes better for the world. Iran had something similar happen to it in 1979 also pushed by the US. How did that work out again?
No. For starters, Turkey is an EU-aspirant NATO member. So, that would be Syria and Iran from your list. And after this, Syria is essentially confirmed as a failed state. Don't forget, the US was already occupying a big chunk of Syria, where they were in Trump's words, "taking their oil". No revenues. And reduced farm land.
And of course Israel wants territory. Just look at a map. They have just expanded their control from the already occupied Golan heights into the highest local strategic point. They have just cut off Hizballah's supply links to Iran. Are you seriously suggesting they are going to walk away from such a big win?
And given that the USA was actively bombing Syrian forces in support of this Al Qaeda takeover I don't see how you can honestly suggest it was a spontaneous event that happened without their knowledge and involvement.
Well, it’s all very plausible but 1) what was Russia (a supposedly Great Power™) — and Iran (supposedly a regional kingpin) doing while all this was going on and 2) where is the slightest shred of evidence this was all some great diabolical scheme by NATO/Zionists/“the west”/the EU/The Grinch That Stole Christmas? And I’ll need to see something better than “trust me bro” or “the global majority sez so” for the last one.
And if, as you were telling us a while back “the Empire is finished, the US is a busted flush” (or words to that effect), what does unrivalled ascendency look like?
(1) Russia is the fourth largest economy in the world and the only country with an equivalent military power to the USA. If that doesn't qualify as a "Great Power™" then I don't know what does.
(2) I have no idea what Russia and Iran were doing, I rather suspect this was a massive failure by them.
(3) I have already provided evidence. Where is your evidence that the USA (and Israel) weren't involved seeing as their militaries were actively attacking Syrian forces in support of the "rebels", and a former deputy leader of ISIS is now saying nice things about Israel? I am going to need REAL evidence that they had "nothing to do with this".
(4) I never said any words to the effect “the Empire is finished, the US is a busted flush”. You are just making things up now. Quite the opposite in fact. I pointed out how the USA was benefiting at the expense of Europe and I said that losing the dollar as the world reserve currency would actually take a long time, if only because dollars would be needed to service the debts taken out in dollars. I am happy to disagree with someone else's point of view. Just don't lie about what I have said.
Reports coming in that Israeli tanks advancing towards Damascus - only 10 miles away. Or they could be heading for the Bequaa valley. Meanwhile Netanhayu is up in court today.
What more is to be revealed during this season of joy?
@ Diogenes, "what more is to be revealed ..?"
'Wars and rumours of wars', of course!
1) Resources, be they economical or military, are fine but being a Great Power means being able to deploy those effectively and not, as seen here, having to get out of Dodge at the first sign of trouble.
2) See 1 above. You don’t get to be, let alone stay being, a great power by messing up. If you’d said that Russia and Iran had, like the US did in Afghanistan, overextended themselves and had to make a strategic withdrawal, that would have at least been honest, but some vague talk of “massive failure” (what? by whom? why?) is a handwave.
3) Big claims need big proofs. You postulated the grand conspiracy involving every actor you take a dislike to. The onus is on you to validate that, not on me to refute it.
4) But you said rather more than that, didn’t you. As per http://www.cityunslicker.co.uk/2024/06/we-are-in-1938-excellent-weekend-read.html
‘ The USA has had an easy ride by being able to simply print dollars to buy whatever they need. That is now coming to an end because Russia is also winning the simultaneous economic war. The global South has picked the side they want to win - and it's not the "Western nations". ‘
Now, fair enough, you used your familiar rhetorical device — oh, now, it wasn’t *me* that said the western nations would lose, no siree, it’s “the global south” saying they wouldn’t win — but since the global south, whoever they’re supposed to be, aren’t here to say what they think or don’t think, I have to conclude that it was, in fact, you who was saying the west wouldn’t win.
So,I ask again, if this is the west not winning, what does comprehensive victory look like?
@Clive.
(1) Given that apparently Russia has been informed they can keep their use of the Tartarus naval base I am not sure they have actually "got out of Dodge at the first sign of trouble". Although I believe they did move some ships out; but that's no different to the US pulling their ships out of the vicinity of Yemen.
(2) My assessment of a "massive failure" in Syria is a dishonest "handwave"? That doesn't make any sense. Although if you are expecting me to only take a one-sided view, I will suggest that perhaps Russia declined the bait of being extended into a wider military commitment; and which might help explain the speed of the Syrian collapse.
(3) It is not a "big claim", it is the simple facts on the ground. Israel has seized more of Syria to add to the Golan Heights which it already occupied. That is a fact. Not a "claim". As for your comment about my suggesting a "grand conspiracy involving every actor [I] take a dislike to", No, I am only observing. I don't particularly like any of the actors involved, my main objection is the actions of my government supposedly in my name.
(4) Thank you for confirming what I actually said. And I stand by that. I would also point out that Trump recently suggested he would apply massive tariffs against any BRICS countries setting up an alternative reserve currency to the US dollar. That sounds like someone reacting against a genuine threat.
Finally, if you think that a former deputy leader of ISIS taking charge of Syria is a "win" for the West then I don't like to think what you would consider a "comprehensive victory" to be.
Now is a time to remember the murdered Labour MP Jo Cox. She wanted lots of Syrians murdered. I dare say she's had it and about to get more.
Maybe we should look at events in the light of "Which historical character would most approve?"
For the Ukraine War - Hitler. Lots of dead Slavs, d'ye see?
For the Syrian War - I dunno, God I suppose. He wanted lots of Semites killed - the Amalekites, of course, but also the Hittites, Girgashites, Amorites, Canaanites, Perizzites, Hivites, and Jebusites ...
(Did God suppose the Hittites to be Semitic? Probably not but the chaps who, ahem, synthesised the OT somewhere around 300BC probably didn't have a precise understanding of who exactly the Hittites were.)
"a former deputy leader of ISIS taking charge of Syria is a "win" for the West then I don't like to think what you would consider a "comprehensive victory" to be"
It's a win for Israel though, no doubt about it. Iran's communications with Lebanon severed.
Have we really taken HTS off the naughty list? Mind, Lammy is quite capable of it.
Clive - territory is very desirable. Israel are showing us in Gaza what they do with stroppy inhabitants, men, women and children. "No man, no problem" as Stalin said.
That Erdogan, eh? What a card! He must have an iron temperament to balance so adroitly.
1) Well, perhaps if Russia asks very nicely, they might be allowed their base back. Not something a "great power" has to do, though.
2) Yes, Russia did have to make an either/or decision to defend it's occupied territory. A "great power", however, does not see defending its colony as "taking the bait".
3) A "great power" (or certainly a regional power) does not allow a power vacuum to develop on its border, so you can't expect Israel to. Time will tell if this is a territorial acquisition. But even if it does, if you've got time, perhaps you could explain "good colonialism" (like Russia in Syria) and "bad colonialism" (like Israel in Syria) to us?
Oh, it's governments aren't "in your name". Their in the names of the people who voted for them. If you don't like who's in government, you need to get more votes than they do, next time.
4) No, I don't think there's any good guys in middle-eastern geopolitics. The only good I can say comes from any of it is that the Middle East is where Great Power Politics goes to die (and a deserving death it is, too).
"stroppy inhabitants" are the are the people who live in the Isle of Wight.
I'd pick a different description of those who send hundred of heavily armed insurgents across the border into their neighbour, a neighbour which possesses, incidentally, one of the most experienced and effective security apparatuses in the world, and kills hundreds if not well over a thousand of its inhabitants and kidnaps hundreds more.
If it were me, and they were my neighbour, what I would do is say "good morning, I hope you're well" and get my sorry ass our of the car and into the house as quickly as possible. What I wouldn't do is lob RPGs at them and say "ha ha ha, my big brothers in the next door houses are gon'na whip your butt".
"this humiliation will result in Putin lashing out"
Like Biden (or his handlers) did after the Afghan retreat?
Perhaps Clive should have been in Downing Street after, say, the Birmingham pub bombings, to organise the utter destruction of West Belfast and the Bogside.
China must be looking askance, but otoh everything is still ticking on for them. All over Brum at the moment are adverts for a BYD PHEV - at 33k. It has an ICE which can power the wheels, but mostly powers the motors.
So far this isn't playing out too bad - by all accounts this was Turkey deciding to do something about all its Syrian refugees, which given the Syrian diaspora is now looking to return home, looks to have worked.
Still questions about how "reformed" some of the jihadi leaderships actually are, and if they're willing/able to keep a leash on their more frothy members, let alone themselves.
Iran's year keeps getting worse too.
The auctioning of influence will be starting soon, can't see Russia being very successful there given the rouble has been demoted to funny money, and pretty much their entire military equipment has been shown to be third rate.
If the IRA had murdered 6,000 people in a single incident (the number of Israelis killed on October 7th adjusted for U.K. population size), all bets would have been off, in terms of the U.K. response to both IRA operations in NI and the associated tacit or overt approval in the Republic.
Fortunately, saner heads prevailed — not just in the U.K. government but in how far the IRA was willing to go, too.
Prestige: a reputation for high quality, success, or social influence.
If we think militarily then 'full spectrum dominance' like the Brits at Omdurman. Or 'with the might of a deity' if you prefer. Just been reading Sven Lindqvist 'Exterminate the Brutes' (trigger warnings left and right).
Perhaps not much prestige for Russia, no one buys Russian cars or watches or computer chips. Smart uniforms and those hats! but prestige, not so much. They suffer the resource curse, money for the oligarchs without any effort. No investment in depth back home but plenty in Mayfair. We shall see how it goes now for Ukraine.
We might consider 'no investment in depth' to be a British problem as well, with similar results.
Like him or not Netanyahu has played a blinder. It helps if you own Washington - you can do as you please more or less. But brains and cunning and lots and lots of top banana armaments have done him well. Full spectrum dominance. A little local difficulty over ahem corruption is unlikely to hurt him much.
Which leaves the question of October 7th - was he really so blindsided? Me, I am pretty cowardly and if I wanted to take on Israel I would make sure I had a very very large nuclear arsenal and a very very reliable global delivery system. A few thousand armed with fireworks and peashooters was only going to bring down the temple on the Gazan's heads. Why do it would be an interesting story we may never know.
Will Mr Putin take up the Hamas cudgel? I doubt it, too many bad effects on too many oligarchs. That's what happens when you don't have any real prestige.
@Clive
1) They still have the base that was leased to them in the 1970s.
2) Russia wasn't occupying Syria, that would be the USA. It wasn't a "colony" for Russia to defend.
3) So, you think Israel is a "great power, (or certainly a regional power)" but not Russia? And you think Russia was being "colonialist" in Syria despite not actually being either present or involved in their Government. You might want to start explaining what you mean by "colonialism". For that matter, you might want to explain why you have switched from saying Israel has no interest in occupying any part of Syria to implying they are "good colonialists".
4) We at least agree on this. "There aren't any good guys in middle-eastern geopolitics." And as you say, "The only good I can say comes from any of it is that the Middle East is where Great Power Politics goes to die (and a deserving death it is, too)." That, of course, is massively applicable to the USA right now.
OT, but I'm told climate change will mean more big storms.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14175033/Storm-Darragh-UKs-Biggest-solar-farm-pieces.html
"Hundreds of panels at the giant 190-acre Porth Wen solar farm in Anglesey, North Wales - only built two years ago - were blown off their mountings, some ripped to shreds. The site at Llanbadrig, in the north of the island which is owned by French power firm EDF Energy and powers up to 9,500 households, now needs significant repairs. Elsewhere on the island of Anglesey, blades were sheared off a wind turbine which then reportedly caught fire."
It's great that we'll have all these new green jobs ...
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/dec/11/wind-turbine-maker-vestas-cut-jobs-isle-of-wight
The wind turbine maker Vestas has said it will cut 300 jobs at its Isle of Wight factory. Staff at the plant in Newport have been told at least half of its manufacturing operation, which employs 600 people, will be cut amid changing demand for turbine blades. Vestas, a Danish manufacturer with operations in 88 countries, is switching from making offshore blades to smaller, onshore blades, which will only sustain 300 jobs at the site, it said. The factory opened in 2002 and makes an older type of offshore wind turbine blade which is much smaller than new models. Vestas said it has agreed with the government that it can make blades for onshore windfarms instead, helping to keep 300 jobs.
I suppose investing in new equipment to make bigger blades is out of the question?
It's all very well having a good laugh at Vladimir Putin, but at least Russia is - sort of - bumping along, if not actually on an upward trend. We, on the other hand, are headed only in one direction. In many of the most important ways, UK living standards have been falling since the 1970s, when a male on an average wage could not only buy a house and car, but support an at home wife and kids too.
Reminds me of the old USSR invocation "The West is at the edge of the abyss ... we will soon catch them up".
"When we came to power, the UK was at the edge of the abyss. Since then we have taken a great step forward"
Well I don’t know about you, but I’ve never been richer. Most of the residents of my (fairly modest road in a very unassuming town) are either millionaires or getting there.
Why don’t the people complaining at the supposed lamentable state of affairs go out and earn more money, if they can’t afford to buy what they want?
@Clive
I got a bit richer. Thought I'd help Rachel out by chopping a subscription or two, stop buying lottery tickets or a weekly newspaper. All mounts up. She needs all the help she can get.
Do you mean a millionaire or a Millionaire? A property millionaire is nothing special but a proper Millionaire has shares or loot or bitcoins or a business. Even so, a million is not much.
Looking up and down my road I know of plenty of £1M house for sale (with or without boards). Fat chance, most of them are the usual suspects and been on and off the market for years. Plenty of retired but they are slowly going demented or otherwise on their way out. A new widow every few months - and she usually wants to get rid and can't. A few builders/plumbers are doing OK judging by shiny beemers. The WFM types operate from country cottages and foray out to Waitrose once a week.
The farmers are a mixed bag, one a retired city type ran a hobby ranch but dropped down dead just after budget, we shall see what wife does with it. Another's family has farmed this patch since the 1600s, not uber rich but well OK. Probably smart enough to outwit Rachel. Another probably falls under Rachel's radar unless he manages to get a developer to take on his flood free patch. Flogging organic veg not a high flying business model. Another scrapes a living running sheep on rented land, on benefits I hear. Plenty of small spare patches of land left over from C18th century farming methods trapped between oldish houses - and nothing new allowed.
Local town full of boarded shops and half starved retailers. Betting shops, Turkish barbers, vape shops and charity shops in abundance. Nearby a WW2 airfield turned into business park and housing 30 years ago. The biz park looks busy with all the big corporate names having offices there, nothing so vulgar as warehouses or workshops. The housing looks nice, but the place is a windswept empty quarter.
Agree with pretty much all of that. And yes, the “millionaires” are property millionaires, not real cash in the bank ones. But still.
And yes, bricks and mortar retail is dead in my town too.but what did people expect when they merrily trotted out “ yah, well, I can get it cheap online, can’t I?”.
And I was being a bit deliberately controversial in my comment. But since we’re talking about bolts from the blue which weren’t really — or should not have been — I was offering my own in a cultural change context rather than a geopolitical one. I offer a trend to watch and can guarantee it will become big. Specifically, after a decade of online whinging, the novelty of that has definitely worn off. Anyone who shows up wittering about what they feel entitled to and who they think has denied, unfairly, it to them will have to expect pushback. I was there when Thatcher came to power in 1979. Same vibe now as I saw then. Everyone is fed up of whining and it is, if I am correct, going to be a brave person who takes to the intertubes saying whah whah whah, where’s my house / whah whah whah why don’t I have more money etc. etc.
Clive, people have a lot more to whine about than they did in 1979. Which, compared with today, looks like an earthly paradise.
Hell, even 1997 looks like an earthly paradise if you compare it with 2024.
The life chances of my kids are much, much worse than mine at the same age, despite their superior (and debt funded) qualifications.
Sorry (as in, not sorry) -- is there something wrong with your children? I'm absolutely of the view that disability or ill-health makes you vulnerable and reduces your options, so genuine disability must be given all assistance possible, including employment support, substantial benefit payments and housing of the best quality.
If they're young, however, and able bodied, intelligent and have had common sense and practicality instilled into them then what, exactly, is the problem? They want a place of their own, the want some material comforts -- good, nothing wrong with that. They'll need well=paid jobs, but what, specifically, is preventing them from getting them? Especially if they're as you say well qualified.
If, conversely, they paid a high price for a junk degree, that I don't have any sympathy with. If you tried to talk them out of it and they still didn't listen, well, at least you tried and their choices come with their consequences.
Apart from that, I'm still completely stumped why they can't get lucrative jobs, have prosperous careers and get the things that the money which comes from that brings.
Nice lucrative jobs? A trawl through the jobs websites reveals a less than cheerful picture. Not bad for engineers and welders and nurses and the like. Pretty good for sales managers - but we know about job security in that line. Being a butler or a good chef looks OK - if you can stick the hours and the customers. But all lack a growth path for all but a few. T'was ever thus.
But overall I suspect the overall stock of reasonable jobs (£60K+) is rather small and the stock of graduates is rather large. The Tesco checkout awaits - but now automated out of existence.
We might blame silly children taking up Woke studies at some trash uni but not so long ago a spell at uni then into the BBC or the British Council was every middle class parent's dream for their kids. Then HMG monetised the uni industry.
Back at the camp it proved easy to globalise ones industries, on the cards since the '70s. What is not so easy is to start up new industries to replace them. Even fairly thick kids could be given a veneer of intelligence at an expensive school. Which leaves bright, average and dim kids without financial backing in a bit of a fix - well screwed I would say.
Finally to Syria. They now hope for some sort of resurgence of industry and wealth. But I rather doubt that is what Israel and the US has in mind for them - which is where Russia came in a long while back. A long and painful future methinks.
"But overall I suspect the overall stock of reasonable jobs (£60K+) is rather small and the stock of graduates is rather large. The Tesco checkout awaits - but now automated out of existence."
As ever the middle classes look down their noses at the Trades. But earning £60K with a trade these days is small beer. A plasterer will be pulling in that easily, not even full time. Brickies, sparkies, chippies, ground workers, gardeners, odd job men, tree surgeons, construction machine operators, all pulling in serious coin these days. Beats a degree in Grievance Studies from East Midlands University (formerly Kettering Community College) into a cocked hat. Probably beats a PPE from Oxford too, and does far more good for the nation to boot.
OT
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Norway-Wants-to-Scrap-EU-Power-Links-amid-Surging-Prices.html
Norway’s ruling party and the opposition party leading in the polls ahead of next year’s election plan to campaign for cutting off an interconnector with Denmark and renegotiate electricity interconnections with the EU and the UK as Norwegian power prices have soared to multi-year highs. While not a part of the European Union, Norway is a key EU partner and is party to many EU single market initiatives, including in electricity interconnection. But unlike most of the EU countries, Norway has abundant hydro resources and doesn’t rely on imported natural gas for power generation. In fact, it is Western Europe’s biggest oil and gas producer. Hydropower accounts for 90% of Norwegian power generation, while the remaining around 10% of the electricity supply in Norway comes from wind power. When EU power prices jump, as they did again in the past few weeks, they spillover into Norway, which exports electricity via these interconnectors.
Exactly. People who can repair complex machinery can practically name their price. Now, if you have a 2.2 in psychology, law or let alone anything like Post Colonial Drama Studies, forget about doing anything other than being a menial office drone for not much above minimum wage.
But just absolutely at random I looked at Centrica Careers (who do not by any means pay the best in the industry) and they list many roles in engineering and technician positions and simply cannot get the staff they need for home care boiler servicing (mainly ‘cos they treated their last cohort like dirt and are now trying to rebuild their reputation as an employer).
£43k base £50k OTE https://www.lifeatcentrica.com/jobs/r0066709/technical-repair-engineer/
Even in my expensive Home Counties town, you can buy a reasonable flat on your own, earning that. If you’re a coupe, nice new-build family houses on a perfectly decent estate are easily affordable.
Sorry to anyone stuck with, say, a law degree in a vastly oversubscribed pool of jobseekers. But I remind everyone — what is the name of this blog, again?
"We have mountains and a lot of rain, hence hydroelectric power. This is a natural resource that belongs to the nation. We have been forced to heat our homes with electricity. It is now illegal to heat a home with traditional heating oil (you can still do it by burning food or "bio fuel", but most people believe that is illegal as well). At the same time they (the Quslings) built cables to Denmark to export electricity and profit from that, which obviously increased prices locally, a double win. Now it is a 10x win. I am hoping that this shock will teach enough people to actually cut those cables. But I am not holding my breath."
It's a bit like the way wind and solar providers, already heavily subsdised, got a bonanza when European gas prices rose and took electricity prices with them.
"an intelligence failure on a par with Israel's, pre October 2023"
Hmm.
According to BBC reports we are short of about 20,000 workers in the building industry broken down by brickies, plumbers, sparks etc. A pretty trivial number compared with the unemployment stats and easily solved by immigration - but for the screaming from the DM/DT axis.
The real problem is that employment in the building game goes up and down according to demand driven by the economy and govt policy. Feast today, famine next week. Which is why Civil Servants get favourable mortgage rates and brickies face a sharp intake of breath.
Add to this the (non) training regime, partly governed by a reluctance to train too many plumbers - pushes wages down for the rest, a mugs game. Then we have to consider the effect of age. Not too many roofers over 50, their knees go and falling off is a hazard (once). By comparison a cosy DEI job where you drag on to 69 looks quite nice.
The bigger problem is what to do about the rest of the unemployed and the allegedly low productivity of those still in employment. I'm not clever enough to answer that - neither is anyone else it seems.
As for Anon @ 3.49pm, my thought is Hmm too.
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