An important C@W morality tale
If you haven't caught it amongst all the holiday excitement, there's a remarkable story afoot of how Alastair Campbell's son Rory allegedly took a load of high-rolling mug punters for several million quid, and has now disappeared - along with the money, naturally. It's said he's suffering from the mental stress of it all, naturally, and must be left alone.
If these allegations are true, this is really, really funny. It merits coverage on C@W because (as well as being hilarious) truth be told, mug-punter "investments" are a perennial source of finance for capitalist ventures the world over. This is an important morality tale. It is every adult's job to ensure that they don't themselves join this gravy train, and that they do raise their children to recognize the danger signals.
And the biggest danger signal of all, flashing away in lurid neon lights, is - "I've got this infallible system ..."! For Pity's sake, a betting syndicate!! Or, as we should correctly term it, just another Ponzi scheme. With the outside chance that things work out in the short term, but are guaranteed to crater when, as always, betting against the house doesn't work out in the long run.
Making things more delicious than usual, the endlessly entertaining, worldly-wise Campbell senior (+ Mrs C) seem to have sunk quite a bit of dosh into it[1] themselves. We all hope they got out in time ... *Ahem*.
Was Campbell Jnr betting against the house? Well, details are scant, but I think that's what we must infer: he and his oh-so-mathematical "system" [2] thought they knew better than the big Asian bookies, where liquidity is such you can go large without moving the market. Well, it is indeed sometimes realistically possible to know better than the odds on offer in a big market[3]. But if you're so damn' smart, the risk-free approach is to arbitrage, not simply to indulge in naked speculation[4]. And then ... there's credit risk on top! Not only might you not know better than the market - when you do come out ahead, the bastards might not pay! Which is what, we are told, happened here. I mean, an online bookmaker in the sub-continent? Well well well.
Just to round off, read the last couple of paras in that story - the pugnacious press release. This story, we are angrily told, is one of outrageous breaches of confidence by Master Campbell's investors, which naturally causes the former to withdraw his offer to compensate the latter. It's all their fault, as anyone can plainly see.
I wonder who on earth drafted that? The old master is losing his touch, methinks.
We'll have our own fabulous C@W speculative venture here in a day or so ... the 2025 New Year's Predictions Compo! Watch this space.
ND
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[1] It's not wrong - indeed, it can be truly honourable - for friends and relatives to back their nearest and dearest, of course: I've done it myself several times. But only on businesslike terms that delude nobody, and satisfy everyone before, during and after.
[2] 'Mathematical' systems are the worst. Very few people really understand probability.
[3] I have a friend who genuinely makes serious money on the horses - or did, until he was no longer physically mobile enough to work his energetic system, which is as follows:
- study the form, exhaustively. There's plenty of good data
- go to the track on the day, and check out the horseflesh for yourself in the paddock. It doesn't take much experience to spot a horse that is lethargic, skittish, spooked etc
- arbitrage[4] the on-course odds (knowledgeable) against the Tote (mug punters watching a TV screen hundreds of miles away; sentimental betting on names that sound nice etc etc)
- rinse, collect, and repeat.
13 comments:
"Or, as we should correctly term it, just another Ponzi scheme." "correctly" my arse. That's Americanly. Its correct name is a Pyramid Scheme.
Oh my, it has some lovely ingredients.
"His parents, Alastair Campbell and Fiona Millar, are said to be invested to the tune of £288,000."
"As an undergraduate at Oxford, where he studied politics, philosophy and economics"
"his company, C&N Sporting Risk"
“Are you going to send some money soon or are you just hoping I die before you need to pay up?”
suggests to me that UK horseracing isn't particularly bent..............
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
OK, Anon, I am sure I am being naïve - so can you explain how a knowledgeable (but not 'connected') ordinary punter can consistently make money?
I worked for William Hill for a while. As soon as a punter started to win, they would restrict the amount that could be wagered and eventually close their account. The excuse was that if the punter made money that was suspect behaviour!
"I worked for William Hill for a while. As soon as a punter started to win, they would restrict the amount that could be wagered and eventually close their account. The excuse was that if the punter made money that was suspect behaviour!"
There's a guy who comments on Tim Worstall's blog who is a pro gambler (he could be retired, but makes a living from betting anyway). He says exactly the above - he's banned from most of the big betting sites because he wins too much.
Back in early '70s a housemate ran a betting database on his employer's computer (London Borough of Something). The day job was easy so plenty of time to peruse the Pink'un and form books. He did very well but got barred from local bookies, they don't like it if you win. He had to recruit fresh faced yokels like me to put his bets on - but that didn't work for long.
At the time my dad ran a working mans club and some of the less reputably employed made good use of the old 4d box phone to receive cryptic messages from mates in the stables. But they too got known by the local bookie (a Nigel Farage lookalike to a tee). As they say of the racecourse - it's too bent to be straight.
Said bookie had a team of minders who were known for assisting the reluctant to cough up owed funds. A bit uncivilised for Rory maybe.
OK, Anon, I am sure I am being naïve - so can you explain how a knowledgeable (but not 'connected') ordinary punter can consistently make money?
Sorry, ND, that was a cheap shot........The only way I know for a punter to consistently make money would be to follow George & his lucky onions over on Going Postal. George never lets you down. HNY !
See, I reckon a "mate in the stables" is only a fraction better than my man making his judgement on what he sees in the paddock - knowing / spotting for yourself that a horse isn't on top form is not at all the same as outright race-fixing.
Whereas the 'helpful phonecall' from a dog owner can be 100% on the money - because dogs are easily fixed. Just keep 'em thirsty and give them a litre of water a minute or so before the race. And the betting is so thin at the dogs, you can move the market yourself with relatively modest £££.
It's the same the whole world over. I once went with a first-rate trader to the dog races at Houston, Tx, and he would say: just watch this, I'm going to change the odds from X to Y. He would go to the desk with his $$$, and you could watch X change to Y on the screen.
Hilarious evening out, though: nice waitresses, good food, plenty beer. If you are just betting small money on a whim, you might come out ahead anyhow! Something's gonna win.
The geniuses in charge of Long Term Capital Management (US Hedge fund) purported to have discovered a scientific & foolproof method of calculating derivative prices. They lost $4.6bn in the first few months of 1998......... Rory Campbell would appear to have inherited his Fathers sense of self importance & arrogance by basing his financial strategy on expecting Asian bookies to honour their commitments.......
So Mad Al the alcoholic, manic depressive, Keighley born Dingle supporter turns out to have produced a wrong 'un? I bet Dr. David Kellys family are shocked
My database mate had a theory that after a win (horses) the owners/jockeys/trainers would rest the horse (or not) with a view to the horses welfare (or not) and also putting the bookies off the scent. A tricky game but my mate reckoned the statistics backed up his theory.
No idea if he ever put it to use, life moved on and never saw him again.
... because he's in the Bahamas?
Jim your observation is of course exactly part of what I mean by the stable-lad's tip and the horseflesh fancier's own observations in the paddock. You know what they say in ballet circles:
"If you skip a day's exercise, you know it the next day: if you skip 2 days, the company notices; 3 days, and the audience notices"
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