We had it coming.
1. Trump's demand for increased European defence spending is (a) no surprise, and (b) totally reasonable. So: what, in general terms, is Europe going to sacrifice, in order to move towards him on this? Its freedom? Because if Putin makes his next territorial move while Trump is in the job, that's what is at stake.
I'm guessing it'll be Net Zero etc. That particular policy desideratum is already proven to take second place to growth in most countries, when confronted directly with the trade-off. I reckon it will come a poor third, when Russia actively raises dust in the Baltics / the Polish border / the Balkans.
2. Bringing this issue home to a Parliament near you: will Starmer dare to continue holding back on his minimalist 2.5% GDP defence spending "aspiration"? There's no timetable for that, beyond "by the end of the Parliament"; and thus far the MoD is in the firing line for Reeves' upcoming departmental cuts like all the rest.
3. Looking just a little further from home: when is the EU going to tell the Irish they need to pull their weight on defence?? They've been shamelessly free-riding forever, and some day it has to stop. I know they have neutrality built into their Accession Treaty, but they can damn' well start paying cash for the defence they've been enjoying for free.
Loads more to say, of course, so have at it BTL.
We had it coming.
ND
40 comments:
It would be amusing to see the Irish put their hands in their pockets just as both Trump and the EU come looking at the Irish tax base and its multinationals.
I am a small minded man and take my pleasures where I can find them.
"I'm guessing it'll be Net Zero etc."
How is that going to work?
'Hey, you know that thing that we told you was 100% going to fry the planet if we didn't do exactly as the billionaire globalists told us to? Well it turns out we and they were wrong. The planet will be just fine with or without us. Instead we need to drill baby drill and start casting tank hulls. Oh, and you won't get a pension until you're 70 and forget those disability benefits if you're feeling a bit sad or anxious. Here's a gun, start marching up and down'.
The political class have nailed their colours to the Net Zero mast. They can't back down now without making people question everything else they say.
How is that going to work?
My observation over many years is that shameless professional politicians always seem to manage to "find the words" [(c) Rudyard Kipling]. If they aren't already naturals at this game, they employ people who are.
They know that at some point they are going to need to (a) lie, and (b) perform the most acute reverse-ferret manoeuvres. The words can always be found.
Check the weasel sayings of Miliband, recent and yet to come. He's continually swallowing all manner of shit on NZ, in order to stay in the game.
Stop funding the climate-activist NGO's, send the bat signals out to business that they don't need to perform green-washing climate PR, introduce a new moral panic for the climate plebs to attach themselves to (Maybe let Isreal attack Gaza again, seemed to work for Greta last time) and hopefully climate alarmism will be forgotten after a couple of 24 hour news cycles.
An alternative hand-waving sort of view. Remember, notions come before analysis.
I wonder why we and European governments seem in awe of the Orange One and his side kicks. Sure, he seems to cut ice with the Russian one - perhaps those film clips will stay under wraps a little longer. Too bad Zelensky.
But why jump when Trump says so. Exactly who are we hiring a military against? We have got away with a very small and largely ceremonial setup for a long time and the French and Germans much the same. We don't have to bother with the remaining Middle East troublemakers. They are as much Trump's problem as ours.
Then we might hire Zelensky's staffers and replace most of the MoD. They being a disaster hell bent on purchasing old fashioned unreliable junk for the last decades - get rid. Cut out the gold braid and scrambled egg, Something more minimalist, honours going to smears of trench mud rather than staff college points. No murmurings either about swapping one lot of corruption with another.
A further advantage, Zelensky will have more enthusiasm for bottling up Putin.
Then before we bow down - all hail to Orange - we might consider how long Trump will last. Only 3 years and 9 months at best. But already he is building up trouble at home. The courts cannot be ignored forever. And the Orange One might remember a bit of history.
Generally speaking Kings are dependent on their Barons. Barons depend on money and no one treading on their toes. Sooner or later they have a chat with no coffee with the King. So I think we can play along for a while. Dragging feet for 3 years is no effort at all for HM Treasury.
The military will be waiting a bit longer methinks.
I don't see Russia as having "next territorial moves" in the sense of needing territory, I assume their aims are as published - demilitarisation of Ukraine, denazification i.e. no Bandera cult, no standing ovations for SS veterans, NATO back to 1991 borders. It's in that last that there's potential for strife, especially Aegis missiles in Romania. Not that it helps when you have a Baltic state (I forget which one) deliberately giving its Russian-speaking citizens a hard time to show how enlightened they are.
But the schadenfreude is delicious.
"Europe, be independent just like you always said you were "
"Oh scheisse"
No Guardian editorial yet - they're stunned, struck dumb.
Still, I'm sure young Britons will be flocking to the colours:
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/society/article/gen-z-survey-police-racism-crime-nhs-hlghh0pxw
“Gen Z think UK is racist and would not fight for their country”
And they say our education system is rubbish, it's pretty good at indoctrination. My kids might not have been able to find Alaska on a map, but they all knew about Stephen Lawrence.
@jim No, historically Kings sided with the people against the Aristocracy. Trump is following along with exactly that. Siding with the working classes against the new "aristocracy" of the Democrat-controlled federal bureaucracy.
Re Romania, doesn't Hegseth plan to expand the US base there?
I was about to make similar comments to our recent Anonymous poster, but he/she beat me to it.
I believe the Baltic nation being referred to is Latvia, which has a large Russian population that is currently being discriminated against. Haven't they just stripped the Latvian nationality of some Russian-speaking ethnic Russian grandmother who was born there but doesn't speak Lativian? You know, the sort of thing we are constantly told we are not allowed to do, but nobody complains about when it is applied to Russians?
Russia invoked the UN Declaration about preventing genocide as their excuse for invading Ukraine - a state that had banned the use of the Russian language, banned Russian political parties, and has also since stripped their libraries of Russian literature and attacked the Russian Orthodox Church.
I seem to remember that Germany was provoked into attacking Poland because of Polish pogroms against ethnic Germans living there, e.g. in Danzig. All ethnically purged now of course, Danzig being renamed to Gdansk.
History might not repeat, but it rhymes.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-02-12/trump-s-new-plan-to-end-the-russia-ukraine-war-might-break-europe
I always said doubling defence expenditure with a flatlining economy wasn't a great idea. Here we are in one of those weeks when history speeds up.
Few thoughts:
Russia is unlikely to do much movement on other territory (Moldova maybe), combination of corruption and incompetence in the invasion of Ukraine has left their offensive ability noticeably reduced, even the once apparently limitless Soviet stocks are looking limited. They need time to rebuild.
They're also running out of bodies to cover fighting and working, and they're no longer as attractive a destination for migrants - and Russia has used multiple equivalents of "Boriswaves" over the years - which also means they need time to fix their economy.
What they will do is make hay of the current political landscape. The political and media classes are much further leftwards than the populations they represent, and the centre-right parties haven't been doing their jobs of applying the brakes on that, but pushing on the accelerator instead, so the people are open to further right parties, most of whom haven't the training or experience to spot when they're getting groomed or undermined. So fun times ahead.
Europe won't get its act together while Germany has a loud voice, it'll need to be circumvented or ignored.
Starmer probably won't need to worry about his increase being an ambition, Trump is thin skinned and open to ego massages. Starmer and Mandelson will "manage" him.
I'm not expecting the Irish to dip into their pockets, they're masters of playing a fiddle - and I don't mean the musical instrument.
Wildgoose - if I remember my history Latvians provided some enthusiastic Bolsheviks - the Red Riflemen
Putin's (and Russia's) biggest long term problem isn't west of Moscow. It's southeast of Novosibirsk.
But atm China are
a) allied with Russia because they know they are next in line
b) in the long term they are the biggest long term problem for all of us. A billion high-IQ, hard working people, while we import Africans. The UK attitude is pretty schizophrenic, we are still letting in vast numbers of HK residents who will identify as Chinese. We have also sold chunks of strategic industry to them - "open for business" - like a brothel.
To be fair the US seem to have belatedly woken up, nearly 20 years after Eamonn Fingleton wrote "In The Jaws Of The Dragon", but even now Western elites are addicted to cheap imports just as they are addicted to cheap labour. What will we do without our £2.50 t-shirts and £30 mini-PCs?
Will Brits/Euros scuttle the peace moves by means of an incident involving Russian oil tankers in the Baltic sea? My understanding is that they're mooting a naval blockade - for environmental reasons, honestly, protecting delicate ecosystems - which could easily lead to shooting. It's not been unknown for an "incident" to torpedo peace talks.
https://splash247.com/moscow-vows-retaliatory-measures-if-eu-apprehends-tankers-in-the-baltic/
"My observation over many years is that shameless professional politicians always seem to manage to "find the words" [(c) Rudyard Kipling]. If they aren't already naturals at this game, they employ people who are."
It'll take more than just words to turn this supertanker around. There's the little matter of the Climate Change Act, and the Net Zero Act. If they're going to do a reverse ferret then they'll have to get rid of those two, otherwise the courts will force them to continue regardless of any weasel words. There's plenty of NGOs out there who will happily finance taking the UK government to court to enforce its legally laid out obligations under those two statutes. As has been seen over the recent Rosebank case.
Reversing out of Net Zero is going to take some serious humble pie eating, and egg on face for the Establishment. And some serious legislative time (with all the accompanying publicity) to replace the current legislation with something else thats suitably watered down. This isn't something that can be slipped out on a Friday evening before the Christmas holidays and everyone comes back to work as if NZ never existed.
I don't see it happening. There's too many 'non serious' people in government nowadays who will demand NZ continues, regardless of anything else, because their entire personalities are wrapped up in it. See the reactions of the Dems in the US to Trumps actions. Its as if he's personally assaulted them with a cattle prod. They can't separate themselves from public policies. If you remove the policy you are in effect removing part of their being.
OK, so the Irish don't have much of an army, but the have all the experience of guerilla resistance you could ever ask for...
And at around 3.10pm Tim Garton Ash opines in the Guardian. Sadly comments are not open. Not a happy bunny. Good thing most of those Atlantic Council jollies are privately funded, but whither Chatham House and all its little offshoots? Surely some USAID cash there...
What all the 1930s replay role-players miss is that in the 20s and 30s there was a big fat Bolshevik elephant in the room, and people were (rightly imho) scared of it, so went the other way. Putin's no Hitler, nor a Stalin either. No Bolsheviks or Communists any more, bar a few rapidly ageing ones. Funny to think Starmer was a 4th International type. Maybe not so funny.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialist_Alternatives
patently - nice idea, and I know you are jesting: but 21st C populations are too soft for serious resistance against the kind of ruthlessness deployed by Putin's forces in Ukraine, mass deportation of children for "re-education" and all. Read it up for yourself: (and don't let anyone tell you it's all CIA propaganda)
Tony Benn in his CND days was always risible in this regard: he "would be a conscientious objector, but would mount civil resistance if the Soviets ever invaded". Yeah, right. There are not many Joan of Arcs per head of population, and they don't last very long, either.
The EU (and UK) are going to dance to Trump's tune because they don't run a surplus and any US actions against Eurobonds (or Gilts) is going to fuck them in double quick time when the borrowing costs rise.
The next 4 years will be fascinating (in a macabre way) for the UK as the effects of Labour policies crash the economy and Trump MAGA policies make them stronger.
Whatever you may think about Ukraine, it's pretty damn sad to see how utterly without power or influence the UK is. "To be born British is to have won first prize in the lottery of life" seems a long way away, yet it was still true when I was a nipper.
Still, there's always schadenfreude:
"Keir Starmer’s spokesperson said there could be “no negotiation about Ukraine without Ukraine”. But that is what the US president has just done."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/13/trumps-ukraine-call-with-putin-leaves-uk-sounding-at-odds-with-reality
Not enough account is being made of Ukraine 'nothing to lose' cards. Russia is extremely vulnerable and Ukraine's attacks have been limited by what the West has permitted. If the US forces Ukraine to the table then whats to stop a large number of refineries and pipelines being significantly damaged at multiple locations. (Think vast majority of existing Russian oil/gas exports ceasing.)
Separately the (Western) EU and UK will do barely anything about increasing defence as they are incapable of doing so.
Al
The Bloomberg piece with no need to sub or register
https://archive.ph/xtim0
Yes. Starmer not a Trot, as Blair was (is?), rather, a Pabloist.
Splitter
Well there was that "Russian attack" on Chernobyl yesterday, and we all know Russia has form, look the way they keep on attacking that big plant in Zaph, despite being in control of it! How evil can you get?
Al - indeed. I am sure Russia remembers that Ukr is currently holding the significant natgas facility at Sudzha (Kursk) that they captured last August.
J D Vance has handed the EU bureaucrats their arses on a platter at the Munich security conference.
Certainly a bravura performance, just as (surprisingly to me) was TTKs announcement that Ukraine was on an unstoppable route into NATO.
But I'm not sure Vance understands Europe. I remember after the Brexit vote, Dominic Lawson wrote that all his many European friends were telling him not to worry, a deal would be done, maybe a rerun of the vote, Brexit wouldn't happen. Something would be worked out. He said that he had to tell them they were wrong, that it was Britain and the vote would be respected. This was greeted with amazement and even some pity. "You mean your rulers don't actually rule?"
If (as some have argued) Russia is close to collapse and Ukraine are destroying their economy, might there not arise a legend of a stab in the back by Trump, a Dolchstoss, just as Ukraine were turning the tide?
Matt - J D Vance has handed the EU bureaucrats their arses on a platter at the Munich security conference
Yup, reckon that's about it. As first drafts of history go, that looks like a pivotal event. More next week.
Vance speech
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1890529020892058055
On Ukraine, I simply recall Churchill...
Jaw, jaw, not war, war.
And we have had to wait for Trump to become President again, for this to happen. After years. Europe, we, are spineless, cowed and pathetic
Here's Vanc
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1890529020892058055
OTOH Vance's remarks (while I strongly approve) are a 180 from Biden times less than a month ago.
I do wonder if, once DJT has let Israel do what it wants in the West Bank, Gaza Syria and Lebanon, if all of a sudden (perhaps triggered by some event) it'll be impeachment time.
"And now I have no further use for you" as AH said to the Socialist benches after more than half of them voted him complete emergency powers in 1933.
Well, the Guardianistas have recovered from the shock, and seem to have gone 100% "cut all ties with the US, close the bases, double defence spending". Remarkable.
Anyone who's visited the US and got outside the cities knows that whatever you think of their government, most Americans are pretty good eggs. But to the Guardianista those are exactly the evil rednecks they despise.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/feb/15/donald-trumps-betrayal-of-ukraine-has-emboldened-vladimir-putin-and-pulled-the-rug-from-under-nato-allies#comments
@Anon 1:04pm
They also blew up their own undersea gas pipeline to Germany, despite it being a major source of revenue! We know, because all the papers assured us it was so -- just as we know that Putin is the next Hitler, because like Hitler he has been explicit in his desire for the Russians to have more living space and subjugate all inferior races. The fact that he spent 22 years in power without invading Europe was a brilliant decoy. Totally evil and crazy, if you ask me. We need to nuke Moscow or he'll be in Lisbon by autumn.
"most Americans are pretty good eggs."
I spent an undergraduate Long Vacation in America. People proved to be hospitable and generous - more conformist than I was used to, perhaps; a little cowed when it came to free speech, but good eggs nonetheless.
1. Increased European defence spending means that US assets in the theatre can be transferred elsewhere. Say the Pacific coast. Trump et al might well be remembering how the Clinton administration ended up getting involved in Yugoslavia, as the nascent EU completely ballsed up.
Virtually anything might give. Bloody great gas field in Lincolnshire, let alone the Weald Basin. Obviously, Guido has got the UK DOGE thing going.
2. Probably. His (and Reeves' - but she's a goner) great hope is a rather swift, and cheap, forces reconfiguration around drones. Mainly RN initially.
3. Depends how you want to view the cases surrounding the Apple Tax, but 13 billion euros would buy the Commission what? It's unlikely they'd give a monkeys about Irish deployable forces, just give the cash to the French or Spanish.
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