Toughing things out isn't quite the same as playing for time, although the latter (an intellectually very dull strategy, but often effective) can be part of it. One reason it can work for the obdurate party is that an awful lot of opponents have read their Sun Tzu and are hoping to gain their victory by manoeuvre and psychology alone, i.e. without bloodshed - which involves the incumbent vacating the battlefield before any clash of main forces.
Well, the other side has a vote in these matters, which all parties need to remember. We have three prominent examples in play right now.
Starmer. We've long suggested that Team Starmer has every intention of toughing it out, and in the last couple of days he stated he would contest any leadership election that might be forced upon the Labour Party. Quite obviously, yer Burnhams and yer Steetings are hoping he'll be driven away without a fight, perhaps out of sheer embarrassment. Note that Burham said last week that IF there's a contest (and IF he's an MP), he'd stand. That's a man waiting for a coronation, not one armed with a pre-drafted letter in 81 copies.
And there's probably quite a few Labour MPs who don't want to be put on the spot, too, when the Whips come round with nomination papers and thumbscrews. Well, who knows what a few more weeks and Mandy-scandals will bring for TS - but since 'shamelessness' is his second name, he can probably hold on until the last minute. So there you go, boys: you're gonna have to winkle him out.
Trump. Obviously not in such imminent political peril; but he sure ain't enjoying where he finds himself vis-à-vis Iran and world opinion generally. (WTF did they go ahead with that Beijing visit for - I mean, either of them, Trump or Xi? Literally nothing achieved. At least, though, it doesn't appear Trump gave away the farm this time, which was the danger. What might he do to cajole Xi to go ahead with the planned Washington visit, though?)
Anyhow, in what's clearly an orchestrated effort, there has been a splurge of "Trump really knows what he is doing" articles - a demeaning task for the poor writers involved because manifestly he hasn't a f*****g clue. I'd spotted a few in UK media, and thought it was empty sycophancy: but US contacts tell me it's been a blizzard over there. The joke is, one of the oft-repeated lines is that Trump is pursuing clearly-stated Original War Aims - and then they cite different ones! Of course, there have been so many to choose from, sometimes all in the space of a single morning in Trumpworld. Does it all make the Donald feel happier? Who can tell.
Putin. Ah yes, Li'l Volodya again, with two more humiliations in the past few days: the Ukrainian bombing of St Petersburg, literally casting a dark cloud over the SPIEF-fest; and the Armenian elections, which he had convinced himself had been sufficiently 'influenced' as to give a pro-Moscow result. (This comes after Victory Day, Hungary, Iran, Cuba, Syria, Azerbaijan, etc etc - and of course the Chinese gas sale debacle. Not to mention the casualties ... we've done this all before.)
But no: he's refusing to engage with Zelenskyy's insolent letter, and maintaining that Russia is on the path to inevitable total victory & fulfillment of his Original War Aims - however fatuous that sounds to, err, absolutely everyone. So as we order industrial quantities of popcorn for the months ahead, let's just poke a little more fun by recounting what happened during SPIEF under that dark, oily pall.
- the WiFi failed
- overseas visitors were provided with VPN and SIMs so that they could access WA, etc (banned and 'blocked' in Russia)
- the useless Max messenger (the mandatory replacement for soon-to-be-banned-altogether Telegram) received its official launch - and promptly disappeared from the AppStore
- journalists were asked not to take photos of the lavish parties
- ditto of the hookers provided for delegates
- residents had their hot water switched back on for the week (in St Petersburg the hot water provided by municipal district heating schemes is switched off in summer), presumably so they could present a fragrant atmosphere in the street
But still he's not for turning ...[1]. These world leaders, eh? - they're so ... tough.
ND
_______________[1] Tellingly. however, in occupied Ukraine the Russians are seriously digging in - vast underground citadels being built. They clearly envisage the need to defend what they now hold, rather than feeling confident of pushing ever further forward into the territory they assert is theirs for the taking, as Putin reckons is happening right now. It's readily understandable, not least because Ukraine has rendered vulnerable every movement of vehicles and rolling stock, across the occupied territories and a significant swathe beyond, seriously incommoding Russian logistics. Summer shortages of oil and even water in some of these areas will be acute. It's truly hard to envisage how the much vaunted Russian "2026 Offensive" will materialize in any manner worthy of the name.
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