Recession incoming?

 I Know I am like a broken record now, but this is a very tough morning economically for the the world and for the UK. Don't fancy being the Chancellor trying to draw up a budget.

The Ftse is now down near 6000, having been at nearly 7500 a few short weeks ago. We started the year quite optimistically thinking getting Brexit Done and Trump pump priming the US economy ahead of an election would make for a strong year.

Now we have 3 simultaenous, but related,  crises:

1 - Supply shortages for finished goods and materials as a lag from a 3 month closure of the Chinese indsutrial heartlands.

2 - A new shock to the West as Covid-19 impacts every day life and travel with a potential for a China style shut down for a couple of months. 

3 - Saudi Arabia getting tired of the Russian approach to OPEC and decidig now is the time to start an oil war (Oil price fell 33% in one minute overnight) - just as oil demand is dropping due to lack of travel and shipping. 

Of the three above, only point one is under control with China starting to get back to work last week. The second point is on a knife edge, as the virus gets into Europe at the end of winter - so much will depend on the weather in the coming weeks.

The oil war should be a shot in the arm to the economy at a desperate time, but as we know it is good for some sectors and terrible for others.

UK Gilts are all negative now, the sign of a real crisis if there ever was one.

We still might see this as an over-reaction and there could be a fast recovery if Governments get a grip on the Virus, but there are few signs of that. UK still, after 2 weeks, had planes landing constantly from Milan for example. EU countries with their endless virtue signalling abou tinclusity and openness do seem to struggle with scenario's like this, as does the USA.

Fun week ahead