AI: crashing and burning foreseen, in plain view

Munching our popcorn (while we still have fuel to heat it up) & waiting for Trump to crash and burn ...

We've discussed before the AI bubble, its seemingly inevitable forthcoming bursting, and the system-crashing potential it might hold.  Well here's something to give anyone pause:

Source:  CHARTR / date from Bloomberg

It's pretty remarkable to me that Uber needed such a long runway - surely its only major assets are software?  Tesla looks pretty outstanding value & commercial discipline[1] by comparison - and Musk was shooting for the moon, with serious hardware involved, as well as software.  

But why am I gazing at the foothills?  Because then we step back and look at the mammoth on the mountain, and  - wow!  What type of revenues do they "forecast" - and persuade investors of - to make that even vaguely sane?  And OpenAI isn't alone out there.  What kind of economy can afford their products on the necessary scale?

Sometimes you have to look at something - a bullion price spike, a US president - and just tell yourself the obvious conclusion is the correct one.  That Is Insane.

And the US economy[2] has been wagered on this?  Hello China - the rest of the century belongs to you.

ND

PS: for something more edifying on AI, try this:

__________________

[1] One would need to interrogate that tapering-off of the black bars: was it Tesla that bought X?  Had greenie car buyers lost faith in Musk even before 2025 and his rogue DOGE behaviour?  

[2] And I'm the one that has said, many times: in the long run, never bet against the US economy ...

Lawyers for Uber mad

This whole Uber case really is a storm in a teacup.


In no way are Uber drivers really employees - they would pass every criteria for IR35, except that they have to work almost solely for Uber.


Plus the whole case is made on hours available (this is how you can get to such low pay of £5 per hour). But of course cabbies are never on the clock for the whole time they are at work.


Really, DLA Piper, who led the case for Uber should be thoroughly ashamed of themselves. They have given wind to a whole raft of hand-wringing happy stories in the Guardian about the fight for workers rights. All of it a waste of time as half-competent lawyers will easily win the next round of appeal at the Supreme Court.


Also, whilst I am riled, what is all this shit about a 'gig-economy' as if this is something new. What, for all of say 2000 years, are fruit-pickers? Other Cabbies? Chuggers?


The whole world is full of people who try to make ends meet by doing basically odd-jobs on a regular basis. The whole Lefty concept that this is some new type of capitalist overlordship is crazy; more so given it is written by journalists who exist in just such a space; perhaps it is their sympathy and angst at their own situation that makes them try to come up with such contorted story-telling?