Republican dreams gone with the wind

Above are the states results for Obama's comprehensive USA Presidential election victory.
Here is the 1860 election results. Note: Lincoln's republicans are modern day Democrats. Breckenridge's Democrats are the Republicans There is no West Virginia yet. Ignore the west, hardly anyone lives there. when Abe Lincoln won this there was a horribly bloody and protracted civil war that consumed the country and changed it forever.

And the 1861 breakaway rebel states of the new Confederacy. Virginia was a really big win for Obama, but in 1861 it only narrowly decided to side with the rebels. Florida was mostly swamp back then, and not the major win that it was for the modern Democrats. Maryland and Delaware were slave states but sided with the union in 1861 as war broke out between North and South.

So, this means war..? No.Of course not. But it shows how hard it is to change historical voting.
Factors that play well in one area may not in another.

President elect Obama had a clear campaign strategy and he won where he needed to win. He campaigned extensively in enemy territory and forced McCain to spend time and energy and money shoring up the core vote. He also proved that his message of "change" was stronger than McCain's of "experience". Seeing that he also used "Change" to triumph over Clinton's "experience" this is a tactic that has worked twice, and one Cameron has been using for a while.

The London mayoral victory and Crewe and Nantwich were very very significant wins, showing that the Tories can attack the weakened Labour heartlands. A bold strategy may well be to not just play the marginals but to campaign on a much broader front. A cash poor Labour can't be strong everywhere. If nothing comes from the heartlands attack strategy it doesn't much matter. Look at the map. FL and VA were the targets but the Republicans had to defend the whole South. the 40 electoral college votes for FL/VA wipe out Texas and Alabama for the Republicans.

Lots for Mr Cameron to look at over the next few weeks as he begins to focus his challenge.

Ukraine goes to the IMF; who else is in line?

The post I did a a couple of weeks ago on RISK comes true. Now the Ukraine is seeking quite a lot of cash from the IMF to help stabilise its economy. This adds to Iceland, Hungary, Argentina and others.

As such there have been no big country casualties yet, Russia would have been but for its large FOREX reserves built up through the oil peak of the past couple of years.

The IMF has $200 billion to lend and seems to have committed roughly $30 billion so far. To me the interesting thing would be if a country such as the UK was forced to go and ask for a loan. The loan would be so enormous as to overwhelm the reserves of the IMF. Yet it also seems unlikely that this crisis will pass without some larger victims. After all, it is the banks and financiers in Western countries who drunk the sub-prime/CDO/LBO poison the most.

The IMF needs much more funding if it is to be the answer to this crisis and I am sure this is high on the agenda of the 15/9 meeting.

Also on the Risk theme, Sarkozy is running around the world declaring victory for French State-Capitalism - signing up the Asian nations in his 'war' with USA/UK 'Anglo-Capitalism.' An ideological world conflict between the advanced nations?

The outcome of all this will be most interesting, no one I meet is in favour of less financial regulation and co-ordination - but will the solution be a return to the failures of the past or a brave new world order?