Monday, 11 February 2008
Go Gold ! Predictions Update #1
At the end of December, C@W made our annual predictions for 2008. One has already transpired - that oil would briefly reach $ 100 - but to be honest it was a bit of a no-brainer.
Slightly bolder was $ 1,000 gold. Only mid February, and it's looking good !
Sticking our necks out still further, we forecast that sub-prime write-offs would hit $ 500 billion. At the time, the banks were only admitting to less than one fifth of that, but the latest estimates have now reached 80% of our predicted amount. Pity no-one was opening a spread-bet book on that (though you can always short the banks ...)
What of the others ? There were 20 sooth-sayings in all, and several more look to be in good shape. Barak Obama is making headway: Sterling, house prices and the FTSE are all on their way to the pit (Heaven help us all). And of course Northern Crock is still set fair for full nationalisation. We'll revisit these and the others periodically.
Any danger of us getting a bit smug here at C@W ? No chance: you won't see much smirking here while augury #3 remains good - Brown to remain PM ...
Posted by Nick Drew