Thursday 7 August 2008

Are Barclay's playing the hiding game?


I have no info but am surprised, as are most analysts (of which I am not btw), that barclays is able to declare all its nasty leveraged loans as non-toxic and requiring minimal write-down. In addition its UK write-downs on cards etc are very low.

My hunch, based on instinct and no data, is that there is some arbitrage going on here. Whilst Barclay's maintains this position it can borrow and lend in better circumstances than its UK rivals, HBOS and RBS. As such it is hoovering up mortgage share of the market by way of example.

If and when it 'comes' clean, then it will have bolstered itself at a time when the opposition was caught low. This is a dangerous game if that is what is being played.

Otherwise they are just really lucky the ego's of their management team last year lost out to RBS, sparing shareholders the denoument of acquiring ABN and then writing off most of its value within months....

6 comments:

Newmania said...

Nothing on Northern Rock or is that to obvious ? What about the dread nake IMF on our reduced growth
On Barclays , could be ..dunno

Letters From A Tory said...

It might be dangerous, but Barclays might get a valuable headstart on their weakened competitors if they can hold out for a bit longer.

I say fair play to them, as long as they're not breaking the law.

idle said...

I asked the head of private banking for one of the City's oldest and best firms to specify an event that will mark the bottom of British banks' woes.

"When Varley and Diamond have to resign from Barclays" he replied.

He thinks it's a time bomb.

CityUnslicker said...

LFAT - well it may be a high risk strategy if this is their game.

Idle - thanks for that. Just the kind of confirmation I was looking for. Personally I would not be buying Barclays' shares for a little while.

Anonymous said...

For a number of years I’ve avoided having anything to do with BarCap. I’ve been, for want of a better term, messed around too much. A case of check you’ve got all your fingers after you’ve shaken their hand and get a second opinion if they tell you the time. Bit like how you have to deal with nuLieBore.

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