The notes from the last BOE meeting are out today. They make grim reading. In short as I see it, they say they had little idea of what was going to happen to Lehman's or post Lehman's.
great - they have no foresight, by admission. Historically interest rate adjustments have been use to control the economy over the next 2 years. So a lack of foresight is rather a problem.
Then they go on to note that rates will come down further as inflation falls below target. This is all well and good for the next 6 months. then what?
I fail to see how inflation can remain low when all the deleverage has occured. The £ will be low and imports will cause inflation, the closing of factories will mean less suppliers. less suppliers eqauls infaltion in time as demand picks up again.
Given that commodities et al are markets I fully expect them to over-shoot on the downside. Hence we will have inflation, especially if the dollar tanks too as is likely at some point next year. G20 Global fiscal stimulus is inflationary too in the medium term.
Yet the bank sees maybe 0% interest rates next year. maybe so, but I hope not for long. otherwise the doomsday scenario o f borrowers being killed by deflation and then savers by inflation will come to pass and we will all be immeasurably poorer for it.