Monday, 2 March 2009

Market's 'signal passed at danger'


The FTSE has plunged over 3% this morning on news of HSBC's huge rights issue. Together with more bad news from America and Government dithering over Lloyds Banking Group, it has been a grim morning and it is only just 9am.
Currently the FTSE stands lower than when Tony Blair came to power. Well done Labour, officially 12 wasted years and counting.
The fall since October is approaching 40% alone. Those that study charts would tell you that we either bounce from here or go a lot lower, possibly until the FTSE starts with a 2....
UPDATE: There is not much of a bounce in this dead cat. See here, FTSE ended down over 5% on the day. A re-test of 2003 lows looks very likely as the next step, 10% below where we are today. Here is hoping for a rally instead; perhaps 5% could be capitulation...

19 comments:

Sebastian Weetabix said...

If we do bounce from here, it will be a dead cat bounce. The recession only moved into the 'real' economy in about Q3 last year, and the job losses are only just getting started. Markets sub-2000 strike me as real possibility over the next 2 years.

Houdini said...

Not good news but a sideshow, but this also means that the public finally realising just how bad Brown was as Chancellor will come ever closer. New pensioners might as well not other.

I can't see the market falling much further as banking shares have just about bottomed out...haven't they? The markets may get a bounce sooner rather than later as the Tory win comes closer, but is that a poisoned chalice?

I don't believe the real recession has moved into the real economy yet Seb and think summer to late autumn is when it will really hit.

Anonymous said...

Possibly worse.
Don't forget the constituents remove the least successful and add the most successful.

What a shambles

Steven_L said...

Down from here I reckon. My plans just to save cash then I'm going to stuff it in funds and ETF's later in the year.

Having said that, I do fancy a small short on Randgold.

Mark Wadsworth said...

And this is news?

1. Shares always go down under Labour (inflation adjusted), and

2. We have had the most impressive double-top ever, a formation that took ten or twenty years to materialise. From 2005 onwards it was downhill all the way!

The Great Simpleton said...

I'd always understood that share prices were a forward looking indicator - about 18 months. This makes a recovry in 2010 look less likely.

Still there is a silver lining - it means no recovery before Brown has to go to the polls so with a bit of luck we will see the complete annihilation of Labour, New and Old.

dearieme said...

Back in March 2008 my occupational pension scheme was 80% funded on a "buy-out basis". What state can it be in now?

I don't see the point in worrying about the pensions of Goodwin, Blair, Brown, Prescott, Lord Mortgagefraud and others, since they'll presumably be strung up quite soon.

thinkb4 said...

Wow... so those that study charts think it might go up or down!

Don't forget the stock market is one big poker game and at the moment people are turning up with pennies rather than pounds

Share prices reflect how much can be spent... rather like houses!

It really isn't that difficult to work out is it...

It'll float around the high 3's to low 4's for a year or 2 as there 'aint going to be much money sloshing around for a wee while

Dick the Prick said...

I'm punting 30's - high 2's at worse.

If you're not skint - don't knock it. Money's never been cheaper.

Am thinking of remortgaging my house to the max and buying as many shares as possible in about September.

Steven_L said...

Any cutting-edge comment on this Cityindex story CU?

They owe me £69 - reckon I'll get it back?

CityUnslicker said...

MW - yup, double top, now we have a double bottom though...so could go either way. Personally I can't see any seniment to push even a bear market rally at the moment.

Thinkb4 - markets do go up and down do they not, not usually as far down as this though, hence it is a story.

StevenL - I think your money will ok ok for no from what I see, the money has been put in to shore up the current business. But future business will take a huge knock as the trust factor is gone.

Mark Wadsworth said...

CU, at uk.finance.yahoo I see this magnificent double top, with peaks seven years apart. Where's a double bottom on that (without using a microscope)?

CityUnslicker said...

MW - I was using a microscope! the double bottom would be ocotber and now....

Mark Wadsworth said...

CU, that looks more like a flag or a pennant to me, making a break out downwards more likely than a sudden recovery.

CityUnslicker said...

Agree MW. Dow down over 5% too now. Even Gold is falling. The deleveraging continues.

Laban said...

Surely given that the 2003 bottom (3300-ish ?) was caused by evaporating dot-com illusions, whereas this one's more down to various major structural unpleasantnesses, this should drive shares lower - say to 2500-ish ?

It strikes me that someone like myself - on a smallish pension but with a chunk of savings in the bank - has only one chance to preserve any value. I need the FT100 to get down to 2500 as quickly as possible (at which point I get out of cash and into shares) before Gordon's printing-presses render both pension and savings worthless.

Anonymous said...

dearime: "Lord Mortgagefraud"

How excellent.

look said...

aaaa片, 免費聊天, 咆哮小老鼠影片分享區, 金瓶梅影片, av女優王國, 78論壇, 女同聊天室, 熟女貼圖, 1069壞朋友論壇gay, 淫蕩少女總部, 日本情色派, 平水相逢, 黑澀會美眉無名, 網路小說免費看, 999東洋成人, 免費視訊聊天, 情色電影分享區, 9k躺伯虎聊天室, 傑克論壇, 日本女星杉本彩寫真, 自拍電影免費下載, a片論壇, 情色短片試看, 素人自拍寫真, 免費成人影音, 彩虹自拍, 小魔女貼影片, 自拍裸體寫真, 禿頭俱樂部, 環球av影音城, 學生色情聊天室, 視訊美女, 辣妹情色圖, 性感卡通美女圖片, 影音, 情色照片 做愛, hilive tv , 忘年之交聊天室, 制服美女, 性感辣妹, ut 女同聊天室, 淫蕩自拍, 處女貼圖貼片區, 聊天ukiss tw, 亞亞成人館, 777成人, 秋瓷炫裸體寫真, 淫蕩天使貼圖, 十八禁成人影音, 禁地論壇, 洪爺淫蕩自拍, 秘書自拍圖片,

做愛的漫畫圖片, 情色電影分享區, 做愛ㄉ影片, 丁字褲美女寫真, 色美眉, 自拍俱樂部首頁, 日本偷自拍圖片, 色情做愛影片, 情色貼圖區, 八國聯軍情色網, 免費線上a片, 淫蕩女孩自拍, 美國a片, 都都成人站, 色情自拍, 本土自拍照片, 熊貓貼圖區, 色情影片, 5278影片網, 脫星寫真圖片, 粉喵聊天室, 金瓶梅18, sex888影片分享區, 1007視訊, 雙贏論壇, 爆爆爽a片免費看, 天堂私服論壇, 情色電影下載, 成人短片, 麗的線上情色小遊戲, 情色動畫免費下載, 日本女優, 小說論壇, 777成人區, showlive影音聊天網, 聊天室尋夢園, 義大利女星寫真集, 韓國a片, 熟女人妻援交, 0204成人, 性感內衣模特兒, 影片, 情色卡通, 85cc免費影城85cc, 本土自拍照片, 成人漫畫區, 18禁, 情人節阿性,

uhfdf said...

情色電影, aio交友愛情館, 言情小說, 愛情小說, 色情A片, 情色論壇, 色情影片, 視訊聊天室, 免費視訊聊天, 免費視訊, 視訊美女, 視訊交友, ut聊天室, 視訊聊天, 免費視訊聊天室, a片下載, av片, A漫, av dvd, av成人網, 聊天室, 成人論壇, 本土自拍, 自拍, A片, 愛情公寓, 情色, 舊情人, 情色貼圖, 情色文學, 情色交友, 色情聊天室, 色情小說, 一葉情貼圖片區, 情色小說, 色情, 色情遊戲, 情色視訊, 情色電影, aio交友愛情館, 色情a片, 一夜情, 辣妹視訊, 視訊聊天室, 免費視訊聊天, 免費視訊, 視訊, 視訊美女, 美女視訊, 視訊交友, 視訊聊天, 免費視訊聊天室, 情人視訊網, 影音視訊聊天室, 視訊交友90739, 成人影片, 成人交友,

免費A片, 本土自拍, AV女優, 美女視訊, 情色交友, 免費AV, 色情網站, 辣妹視訊, 美女交友, 色情影片, 成人影片, 成人網站, A片,H漫, 18成人, 成人圖片, 成人漫畫, 情色網, 日本A片, 免費A片下載, 性愛, 成人交友, 嘟嘟成人網, 成人電影, 成人, 成人貼圖, 成人小說, 成人文章, 成人圖片區, 免費成人影片, 成人遊戲, 微風成人, 愛情公寓, 情色, 情色貼圖, 情色文學, 做愛, 色情聊天室, 色情小說, 一葉情貼圖片區, 情色小說, 色情, 寄情築園小遊戲, 色情遊戲, 情色視訊,