Monday 2 March 2009

Market's 'signal passed at danger'


The FTSE has plunged over 3% this morning on news of HSBC's huge rights issue. Together with more bad news from America and Government dithering over Lloyds Banking Group, it has been a grim morning and it is only just 9am.
Currently the FTSE stands lower than when Tony Blair came to power. Well done Labour, officially 12 wasted years and counting.
The fall since October is approaching 40% alone. Those that study charts would tell you that we either bounce from here or go a lot lower, possibly until the FTSE starts with a 2....
UPDATE: There is not much of a bounce in this dead cat. See here, FTSE ended down over 5% on the day. A re-test of 2003 lows looks very likely as the next step, 10% below where we are today. Here is hoping for a rally instead; perhaps 5% could be capitulation...

18 comments:

Anonymous said...

If we do bounce from here, it will be a dead cat bounce. The recession only moved into the 'real' economy in about Q3 last year, and the job losses are only just getting started. Markets sub-2000 strike me as real possibility over the next 2 years.

Houdini said...

Not good news but a sideshow, but this also means that the public finally realising just how bad Brown was as Chancellor will come ever closer. New pensioners might as well not other.

I can't see the market falling much further as banking shares have just about bottomed out...haven't they? The markets may get a bounce sooner rather than later as the Tory win comes closer, but is that a poisoned chalice?

I don't believe the real recession has moved into the real economy yet Seb and think summer to late autumn is when it will really hit.

Anonymous said...

Possibly worse.
Don't forget the constituents remove the least successful and add the most successful.

What a shambles

Steven_L said...

Down from here I reckon. My plans just to save cash then I'm going to stuff it in funds and ETF's later in the year.

Having said that, I do fancy a small short on Randgold.

Mark Wadsworth said...

And this is news?

1. Shares always go down under Labour (inflation adjusted), and

2. We have had the most impressive double-top ever, a formation that took ten or twenty years to materialise. From 2005 onwards it was downhill all the way!

Simon Fawthrop said...

I'd always understood that share prices were a forward looking indicator - about 18 months. This makes a recovry in 2010 look less likely.

Still there is a silver lining - it means no recovery before Brown has to go to the polls so with a bit of luck we will see the complete annihilation of Labour, New and Old.

Anonymous said...

Back in March 2008 my occupational pension scheme was 80% funded on a "buy-out basis". What state can it be in now?

I don't see the point in worrying about the pensions of Goodwin, Blair, Brown, Prescott, Lord Mortgagefraud and others, since they'll presumably be strung up quite soon.

thinkb4 said...

Wow... so those that study charts think it might go up or down!

Don't forget the stock market is one big poker game and at the moment people are turning up with pennies rather than pounds

Share prices reflect how much can be spent... rather like houses!

It really isn't that difficult to work out is it...

It'll float around the high 3's to low 4's for a year or 2 as there 'aint going to be much money sloshing around for a wee while

Dick the Prick said...

I'm punting 30's - high 2's at worse.

If you're not skint - don't knock it. Money's never been cheaper.

Am thinking of remortgaging my house to the max and buying as many shares as possible in about September.

Steven_L said...

Any cutting-edge comment on this Cityindex story CU?

They owe me £69 - reckon I'll get it back?

CityUnslicker said...

MW - yup, double top, now we have a double bottom though...so could go either way. Personally I can't see any seniment to push even a bear market rally at the moment.

Thinkb4 - markets do go up and down do they not, not usually as far down as this though, hence it is a story.

StevenL - I think your money will ok ok for no from what I see, the money has been put in to shore up the current business. But future business will take a huge knock as the trust factor is gone.

CityUnslicker said...

MW - I was using a microscope! the double bottom would be ocotber and now....

Mark Wadsworth said...

CU, that looks more like a flag or a pennant to me, making a break out downwards more likely than a sudden recovery.

CityUnslicker said...

Agree MW. Dow down over 5% too now. Even Gold is falling. The deleveraging continues.

Laban said...

Surely given that the 2003 bottom (3300-ish ?) was caused by evaporating dot-com illusions, whereas this one's more down to various major structural unpleasantnesses, this should drive shares lower - say to 2500-ish ?

It strikes me that someone like myself - on a smallish pension but with a chunk of savings in the bank - has only one chance to preserve any value. I need the FT100 to get down to 2500 as quickly as possible (at which point I get out of cash and into shares) before Gordon's printing-presses render both pension and savings worthless.

Anonymous said...

dearime: "Lord Mortgagefraud"

How excellent.

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