Monday, 15 March 2010

Is the Government creating a double-dip to scare voters?

This is a serious question. Over the last 2 weeks the economic news coming out of the UK has been dreadful. prior to this I saw very little chance of a double dip in the real economy. After all, we have not had a bounce yet and the economy was bumping along at 6% lower than it used to be, so another potential dip is terrible news.

However, the Bank of England today thinks the labour market is still very tricky, house prices are falling and the weak pound is yet to feed through to improving exports. All in all a bad set of results which suggests the Country is an a terribly weka economic state.

On top of this, The Labour Government now has no stimulus plans for the economy, is refusing to lower taxes to spur growth and is doing very little to stop an oncoming wave of strikes. None of this is supportive of the UK economy; quite the opposite, it seems that to suit their political ends labour are quite happy for the economy to deteriorate for a couple of months. Why?

- Their election campaign of pure negative attacks on the the Tories can benefit from saying they Tories would cut more and s make things worse; even when they are doing nothing themselves.
- If this still does not work to win them the election; they are leaving a wose position for the Tories to take-over in any event.

So what can Labour to to make sure this happens?
Well much of the work is already done, in not actually doing anything and the Chancellor has been out at the weekend saying his budget will be a do nothing budget. At a time when urgent actvity and strategic change is needed, we get nothing from a Government more concerned with electronic tagging of dogs.

So it's lose-lose for Britain and win-win for Labour.


Anonymous said...

Q: which is the only G20 to come out of recession and begin fiscal tightening?
A: the UK

Despite the longest recession of all G20 countries, Britain is alone in raising taxes on consumption (VAT), income (new 50% rate) and housing (stamp).

It's certainly an innovative approach, to slam on the brakes before the economy has picked up speed. Some would say it's daft: just as the government egged on a boom, now it's almost trying to engineer a return to recession.

Hairy Arsed Bloke said...

Everyday I become more firm in my desire for nuLieBore to remain in power. Not because I support them – I despise them with a passion that borders on psychotic. It comes in two parts. One is to ensure that the correct people are in charge to take the blame when the economic merde finally hits the fan. The other is to teach the British public a lesson that they will not forget in a hurry about the evils of voting Labour.

As for the conservatives, they are a complete bunch of clueless frack-wits. They have betrayed the British people with their in ability to oppose all the disgusting things that nuLieBore has done to the British people. All we have heard from them regarding policy are patronising platitudes aimed at not scaring people. Holding the electorate in such contempt that they believe that they have to lie to them to gain power makes them as bad as nuLieBore. The Conservatives do not deserve to be returned to power.

Budgie said...

Hairy Arsed Bloke said: "The other is to teach the British public a lesson that they will not forget in a hurry about the evils of voting Labour."

Come on, the Liebore tribalists blame all current woes on 'Thatcher'. They are never going to accept that Zanulibore are to blame for the last 13 years.

I agree with you that the Tories do not deserve to win, though.

CU said: "... it seems that to suit their political ends Labour are quite happy for the economy to deteriorate for a couple of months. Why?"

I don't think Labour has any grand strategy here, I think Brown has frozen. He does not know what to do because his world view (1950s socialism) has crumbled before his eyes. He has retained power after a number of feeble coups and now no-one dares oppose him. Labour have become a zombie party - nearly dead on their feet. Hence the inaction.

CityUnslicker said...


So Brown is so bad you want that to continue rathe than the Tories.

What rot.

Look, the Tories are well advised and may prevent the Uk from slipping into a coma. Labour won't A Labour re-election will see the markets crash and the IMF come in. A disaster, all becuase your a bit uppity with Camerona and Osborne.

I enjoy all contributions here but this is just silly. Labour coudl destroy britain, the conservatives will try and save it, although they may fail.

Don't swallow the media line that the Conservatives are numpties. They are spreading this to save their own jobs where they have only good connnections to NuLab.

Really, how can you hate the Tories so much, they have not been in power for 13 years? Look what Labour have done in the mean time. And now you want to punish the Tories for this?

Marchamont Needham said...

I too think Labour re-elected would not be such a bad thing.

It would lead to a sterling crisis, another election, and a strong government.

That's the kind of the kick in the pants the country needs, to not just get out of recession, but to tackle the 10% cyclical deficit that we'll still have at that point.

I want the medicine now - not another 5 years of denial.

DJK said...

Me too. Maybe, just maybe, a Tory government led by Mr Potato Head would be an improvement on Brown & Co, but the sheer unpleasentness of trying to drive down public spending would cause it to collapse, letting Nu-Liebour back in. Far better that a Labour government collapses instead. Besides, we should welcome a Labour-induced Sterling crisis. Nothing else will break the current political deadlock.

Vote Labour! --- You know it makes sense.

Bill Quango MP said...

I see its the Ides of March today.
Maybe Marcus Badgerus and Gaius Cassius Milibandium will be planning a stroll around the Forum?

Anonymous said...

"which is the only G20 to come out of recession"

Is that true? I thought we needed 2 quarters of growth to come out, just as we 2 quarters of contraction to go into recession...? or have you fallen for the MSM line of talking up the economy? .. or have I been smoking too much crack?

Also, how will a sterling crisis cause an election? AFAIAA, there isn't a trigger in law that states if such an event happens, then a GE has to be called. Are you all fantasising again? Genuinely interested to know how this would be caused.

Keep up the good work all.

another anon

hatfield girl said...

A vote in a general election gives a pretty limited say on what happens; but that say can precipitate catastrophic change by putting the governing party out of office. It's no good arguing 'I'll only vote Conservative if they do this or that'. That's not a power embodied in our vote. Nor can we 'punish' brownian Labour in fiendish and artful ways; make them face up to what they have done, etc.

What we can do is vote Brown out.

After that other means to influence Conservative government policy have to be employed.

Nick Drew said...

I hear in today's broadcast media Brown trying out a new, wimmin-friendly soft, low voice

let's see if it persists through PMQs

CityUnslicker said...

Cameron might quit if he loses, pushing hte Tories into turmoil and so the 'predicted' second election would not go so well.

This is the law of unintended consequences at play.

If you want to try to attempt to revive the situation, then voting Labour is the wrong asnwer. Feel free to debate away, but Hatfielf Girl is right, we have limited power over our Government, best to exercise it sensibly.

Hairy Arsed Bloke said...

The plan of removing nuLieBore and replacing them with Blue Labour in the hope that they can be evolved back towards something sensible is bordering on delusional.

There is no gentle way to do thing. Britain needs a good slapping to bring it round.

Anonymous said...

If the Conservatives are unwilling or unable to differentiate themselves from the Labour party, then we must assume that they are (give or take 1% GDP) broadly similar.
As a part of the electorate, I shoud vote for someone who represents my views, not merely the least worst option.

Marchamont said...

Much as I'd like to vote Labour (never thought I'd say that) to see them self-destruct, my sitting Labour MP is one of the very worst troughers; so I will have to vote for the child the Conservatives are putting up.

Oh for a decent electoral system.

Whoever gets in, after the election all hell will break loose, either from the Unions, the Markets, or more likely both.

Interesting times ahead.

Anonymous said...

Yes, it would be great for Labour to be in charge when the brown stuff hits the fan, however, as they are planning to change the voting system, thus making sure that the Conservative will never be able to be in power again, you will end up with a dictatorship.
Think carefully.

Budgie said...

CU said: "So Brown is so bad you want that to continue rather than the Tories. What rot."

No, I do not want Brown Liebore (or any Liebore) to continue. But what is the point of replacing it with 'David Cameron's Conservatives' (as the Tories were appallingly going to call themselves)?

Take just one example: the EU. We could get out and save the economy £50 billion plus. Which one of the big three are going to do that? The Tories claim that we can be 'in Europe' (they mean the EU), but not run by the EU. After 38 years, they must know that is a lie.

Leaving the EU would reduce the UK spending deficit, boost the economy, and hence restrain our ballooning debt. But Cameron WILL NOT do it, though he could. He is trapped in an ideological 1960s timewarp, and tells lies to stay in it.

Please tell me why I should vote for such a moron?

Electro-Kevin said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Electro-Kevin said...

Agree with Hairy Arsed Bloke (as you well no')

"...we have limited power over our government."

Exactly my point. The fact is that the majority of people in Britain are conservative ... and Conservative. And yet there is nothing on offer which resembles what we want. This lack of power is a travesty and I hate our politicians for denying us it.

I'm voting Labour - to destroy both parties.

I honestly think that Britain is finished whatever we do so I may as well enjoy getting the point across to the Conservatives that I really don't like what they've become whilst saddling Labour with the impending disaster.

CityUnslicker said...

hate EU UKIP. I voted UKIP in the Euro's.

What can you hate so much about the Tories, they are FAR better than Labour and only have gone a bit soft as the media have gone for them. Even Osborne will be a far, far better Chancellor than Darling. As for saying Cameron is as rubbish as Brwon - Brown is an unreformed communist for christ's sake.

To the anon who says Tories are the same, it just is not true. Where are your facts. Their education, transport and tax policies are really different. Tehy will cut the deficit whilst Labour and Liberals will increase it in all liklihood.

How is this 'the same', sadly you appear to have fallen for Peter Mandelson's spin.

Budgie said...

Oh dear, I am going to make enemies of both camps. I do not think the Tories deserve to win - they have been feeble, gullible and work-shy. But nor do I think Liebore should either. That is why I shall vote for one of the minor parties (if I can) and spoil my ballot paper if I can't.

The Tories could still get my vote, but they would have to radically change their policies, particularly on the EU and AGW, and a number of other areas. Example: they could actually take an axe to the NHS (they are still blamed for this anyway) without compromising "front line services".

Budgie said...

CU - I told my children when Labour was elected in 1997, that it would all go pear shaped. It has done. It will continue to be bad because we still have to repay Brown's debt (that he has bribed the populace with).

The thing is, we expected incompetence and impoverishment from Labour - that's what they do.

But the Tories have let us down. They crumbled before Liebore propaganda and forgot the 77% of the population that did not vote Zanu. They have abandoned Tory principles and fallen for every fashionable nostrum (or at least been too scared to voice opposition). They have failed to be honest about, or to understand, the EU. There is not a single major policy area the Tories have got right, not one.

Y Ddraig Goch said...

CU - I've been reading your blog for a while (very good by the way) so I hope you don't mind me butting in.

I sympathize with the people here who suggest that it might be better if the Conservatives don't win the next election, although for a slightly different reason. The polls suggest that we are likely to get either a Conservative government with a small majority or a hung Parliament.

The former risks giving us a timid government that will try to deviate from NuLiebour orthodoxy but then give up whenever their popularity dips. Most likely they will get the blame for all the pain that NuLiebour have already injected into the system and in five years time the tax, borrow and waste mentality will be back.

A hung Parliament would be relatively short lived, with Brown as acting, temporary, largely impotent Prime Minister, while the - ahem - less-perceptive members of the electorate watch Brown's economy disintegrate; and that might be enough to make a real majority of them face facts.

I agree by the way, that an outright NuLiebour victory would be an economic disaster.

CityUnslicker said...

Depending on where you live, a vote for a minor party is a vote for Labour.

However, that aside a hung parliament is worse for all the reasons Y Draig Goch says.

Plus, with a Lib/Lab pact they would change the voting system to ensure the Tories could never get back in.

As I said earlier, the law of unintended consequences.

bankruptcy advice said...

Interesting times ahead in 2016. Lets see what happens in Greece and also the referendum on the EU.