Tuesday, 23 March 2010
Trading the UK 2010 Budget
This year though there are some really complicating factors:
1) Darling has said not big announcements
2) A badly delivered budget will hammer the markets so long share positions are highly risky
3) The Pound is already quite low so a big move is a big move likely?
4) Shorting Gilts is really hard and the spreadbetting c's have very high margins so making it not a very attractive call.
All in all, has left me a bit stumped. Drink going up in price should hammer the pub operators so I am leaning towards a short on Punch Taverns and Whitbread. VAT going up wouold hit retailers but I am not sure Darling will do that this time.
On balance I am going Short on Punch and Short on the Pound - there is even a good ETF you can use in an ISA for the latter, USD2 which is short Pound and long USD. I have bought that at 3645. Punch short at 80.5. Will aim to close these calls tomorrow