Yvette Cooper - Pontefract and Castleford {+46.6%}.......... in
Alistair Darling - Edinburgh South West {+16.5% } ............ -in
Hazel Blears - Salford {+32.7% } ............................................. in {but a huge swing to LD}
Jon Cruddas - Dagenham {+14.9%} .......................................... in
John Bercow Buckingham {+38.1%} ...............................................No result
Luton South - Exiting Marge Moran {+14.5%} will it go to Esther? ........out
Jacqui Smith - Redditch {+5.1% } ..........................................- out
Phil Woolas - Oldham East and Saddleworth {+2.8 } ...........no result
Bill Rammell - Harlow {+1.2%} ............................................ - out
Poll of polls -
Capitalists comments predicted
Con 37.5
Lab 27
Lib 26
 | Conservative | 289 | +91 | 36.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | Labour | 246 | -85 | 29.2% |
 | Liberal Democrat | 51 | -6 | 22.9% |
Overstated Con a little and Lib a lot. Understated labour quite a bit.
But so did everyone. Yet the Tory total will be around 25 short... much as we thought.
So..nobody won.
7 comments:
New election this year now almost a certainty?
The anti-tories in Parliament include Scots Nats, NI parties, Wales, greens etc. At least half the Lib Dems and all of Labour - can't see how Tory Minority will work.
Some lessons learned.
1. Labour's core vote strategy was the correct one.
2. Don't go into an election with a media unfriendly leader
3. Don't rely on students.
4. Opinion polls are meaningless.
Clegg probably never had 36%. Cameron probably never had 40% and Brown was never as low as 24%
5. Have a coherent strategy and stick with it. Don't change it in the middle..Dave!
6. Have enough ballot papers and staff. if you haven't..take some action early!
7. Scotland is a lost cause for the Tories. Add a referendum on Scottish independence to the Tory manifesto with a UK wide vote.
8. Don't mention cuts. Don't tell the truth. Labour never did and the Tories only started gaining when they stopped.
9. Leaders debates are not a game changer
10. Have all three leaders at the same venue on the night. Enter the stage through dry ice together and the bloke from Iron Chef announces the winner once the phone and text votes are totaled. Ant and Dec do the fillers.
Don't forget No. 12:
12. If you are a right of centre politician, stand for office in a country which has a majority of it's citizens who are well educated, who are informed by an unbiased media, and who are not bought and paid for by the state.
Oops, looks like my maths could be better. Make that,
Don't forget No. 11:
That's ok John. I do that all the time.
John East: "Oops, looks like my maths could be better."
Sorry John, inexplicably in a bad mood. But that looks like counting rather than math.
Cameron needed 20 more seats for a majority. In 21 seats where the Tories came second, the UKIP vote was higher than the 1st-2nd difference.
Cameron might argue that abandoning old-school social conservatism was vital to keeping the Guardian, BBC and liberal opinion even vaguely onside - 'detoxifying the brand'. But there was a price to pay.
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