Friday 29 October 2010

Where was the September/October market crash?


Here we are, October is done as a trading month. Through September and October the FTSE and US markets have continued a rally. it has weakened alot this month but nonetheless the momentum is still upwards. All the dips are getting bought out.

Yet most market commentators were predicting a big sell-off; I feared one given I am 100% long on investments. Next week perhaps with Obama taking a pasting we may see the beginnings of a sell-off - or maybe not?

The UK markets have even got past the will-she won't-she Bank of England decision of Quantitative Easing. In the US they are waiting to see how much more money Bernanke is going to print. To my mind this it the real backstop of the markets at the moment - the realisation more money printing and so future inflation is in on the horizon.

9 comments:

skint pensioner said...

There was a banking economist on the BBC this morning who was confiednet that QE will restart in the US next week. She mentioned sums between 80 and 100 billion dollars. Is there still time to get out of dollars?

skint pensioner said...

Sorry - confident - sticky fingers...

Electro-Kevin said...

Not confiednet, SP. Not confiednet at all !

Anonymous said...

Well Gerald Celente says the crisis will be revealed again with poor Christmas sales, causing a massively loss in confidence.

I dunno if he is right. But it will be interesting to see, I think its possible.
Previously on this blog and others theres been talk of a managed decline, but in reality it doesn't usually happen like that. Markets reflect people, and people get over optimistic in the extreme during the boom, and run for cover during a bust.
Things could happen pretty quickly, if the 'confidence' is shaken.

But also I don't think you can take the markets in the US too seriously in the run up to an election, the Politicians friends hide the bad news.

James Higham said...

It was never going to be in the City. It was in the economy and it is biting hard.

Sackerson said...

How can there be a crash when all that cheap government money showered on combined-lender-and-speculator banks is being ploughed back into bonds and stocks? I second James; I'd suggest that it's not the market that's crashing but the economy.

Steven_L said...

Yield on savings 2.5%

Gross yield on blue chip stocks 7% to 12%

It's not rocket science is it?

Sackerson said...

Until, Steven, until... How much of that yield are you deducting for risk?

Budgie said...

The risk is with paper money, it seems to me.