While we await the outcome of Mr Q's poll of polls, let's consider another imminent democratic dénouement: the benighted Irish are having a referendum on the European 'treaty' on 31st May.
Some like to think that they will confound Brussels, though this time Guido is a bit tentative. Of course, the Irish have form on this: come up with the wrong answer and they are simply sent back to vote again until they get it right. Being put under all manner of pressure, with the main parties pressing hard for a 'yes' and making lurid threats. Noonan the Barbarian, in particular, has offered vast tax increases and job losses if they don't do as they are told.
I've noted before that the Irish seem rather crushed at the moment, and this sort of thing looks like a pretty clear straw in the wind. So you'd have to guess it'll be 'yes'.
Of course the obvious retort is - so what ? No-one knows in detail what's being voted on: the French & Germans will re-write the Treaty as they see fit, as often as they see fit. We shall return to this sorry story when we know Sarkozy's fate - and doubtless many more times besides.
photo (c) Nick Drew 2012