Father Ted: 30 years of comic joy

Some things that come your way are so engaging, they are automatically memorable, no effort required.  As with most memory-related issues, this is probably a stronger phenomenon with those of, errr, fewer years on the clock:  at a time where nobody could readily muster a tape recorder (and long before video), we'd all turn up at school reciting, word-perfect[1], the best lines of complete dialogue from the previous day's Round the Horn, Monty Python and Sorry I'll Read That Again.  And I can still give The Glidd of Glood (albeit that masterpiece is now available online now - but I've always been able to since first broadcast, long before ... etc etc).

Topping the charts, so far as I am concerned, is Father Ted.  So many extraordinary set-piece gags, many of them just a couple of seconds long [You let Dougal do a funeral?!], strung together in perfect half-hours strings of pure pearls.  And now it's been 30 years ...  scarcely seems possible.  Three short series, one superb Xmas Special; just 25 episodes.  And then Dermot Morgan dropped dead, 24 hours after filming the last one.  That's heavy stuff, as comedy goes.

A decade or so ago, business took me for a sustained period to Dublin.  To my delight, in the office where I was consulting, of a quiet moment[2] or in the staff canteen during lengthy ad hoc mid-morning breaks[3], someone would launch an apposite Father Ted line, and everyone would gleefully chorus the script that followed.  Happily, I was able to join in.  Taking care not to regale them with my attempt at an Oirish accent ... [4]  

Your nominations, please, for best Father Ted one-liner or five-second clip.  Here's a good one for starters.

ND

___________________________

[1]  At least that's how I, *ahem*, remember it ...

[2]  There were, just occasionally, quiet moments.  Mostly, it was uproarious.  A remarkable "working" environment - highly enjoyable & something of a career highlight in its unique way.

[3]  Over the massive rock cakes they would all eat.  "Mid-morning" pretty much started at 10:00. 

[4]  Unless the occasion called for the Cork accent, as some sketches do.  Dubliners (including Ted himself: A Song for Europe) affect not to be able to understand it, and they don't mind a bit of mockery in that direction.

PS: I can't resist one more story.  The department held a quiz night in a big upstairs room in one of those rickety pubs you get, even in the smarter reaches of Dublin.  Beer flowed, the craic was amazing.  Spot prizes were given throughout the proceedings, and one of these saw a likely lad summoned to the front to receive a smart little box.  This he ceremonially opened before the assembled host (senior management present), and exclaimed in disgust: Aaah, shoite! Feckin' commmpany cofflinks!  As they say in those parts, you Brits think Father Ted is comedy, but actually it's a documentary.

People Are Starting to Think Straight

Well that's comprehensively seen off my weekend worry that Boris might catch his predecessor's Airport Fever.  Good instinct or good advice; it doesn't matter.  Just stay away from those euro-capitals.

Yes, people are starting to take the whole enterprise seriously.  Not Polly Toynbee, of course: "Boris Johnson’s crew will repel voters – there’s no need to fear him".  But elsewhere in the Graun: "Labour risks total wipeout if it fails to take Boris Johnson seriously".

The Irish are worried, too - and well might they be.  Keeping Varadkar waiting for a call was cheeky but good tactics; and the pained hand-wringing isn't slow to follow, as the Graun relates:

An Irish government spokesman said Varadkar had also invited Johnson to Dublin for further talks on Brexit. [I'll bet he did - see Airport Fever above] “The taoiseach restated the need for both governments to be fully committed to the Good Friday agreement" ... the spokesman said. “He recalled that the agreement requires the sovereign government to exercise power with rigorous impartiality on behalf of all the people in full respect for their rights, equality, parity of esteem and just and equal treatment for the identity, ethos and aspirations of both communities.” [Presumably a quotation from the preamble.  Ooh, that's telling him!]  A No 10 spokesman said both leaders committed themselves to maintaining a warm and deep relationship between Ireland and the UK... Johnson had been accused of snubbing his Irish counterpart by leaving it so long to speak to him ...

Faced with all this new reality, others too are inevitably starting to strategise.  Back to the Irish again: here's a sign of someone getting their brains into gear:

Brexit: mess with Good Friday and we’ll block UK trade deal, US politicians warn. Hostile Congress could hold up trade deal

A decent Remainer attempt to open up a new front: and a bit more imaginative than dropping the IRA into the conversation.  And I suggest there's another scare we shall be hearing a great deal more about, too, as faithfully disseminated by the Beeb:

No-deal Brexit 'would cause civil unrest' in rural Wales

Yes, the threat of civil unrest on a much larger scale than Welsh sheep-farmers will doubtless be bruited about in the coming weeks:  and can a General Strike be far behind?  Or pupils staying away from school, spearheaded by the saintly Greta?  I have a suspicion Stormzy will be musing over the possibilities, too.  And Miller.  And Soros.

If you want an entertaining read from someone who clearly does a lot of thinking, follow Montanatorice, a CiF commenter.  He or she writes quite a lot, and repeats stuff over several comments, but the one you are looking for is what appeared BTL under the "Take Boris Seriously" article linked to above.  I think this link should take you straight in (it takes a second or two to resolve to the comment).  It's even been given the accolade of a 'Guardian Pick'; and a Golden Cleric award can't be far behind.

ND

Silly Season Arrives Early

Now fair enough, it's hot and the atmosphere is febrile.  Plus, it makes a jolly good story.

Hard Brexit: the eye-catching contingency plans to stop NI power blackouts
Thousands of electricity generators would have to be requisitioned at short notice and put on barges in the Irish Sea to help keep the lights on in Northern Ireland in the event of the hardest no-deal Brexit, according to one paper drawn up by Whitehall officials... The eye-catching scenario is contained in a private government paper outlining the various negative consequences of Britain leaving the European Union without any deal. ... Northern Ireland relies on imports from south of the border because it does not have enough generating capacity itself. Britain is hoping to negotiate a deal to allow [the] single electricity market on the island of Ireland to continue after Brexit. 

I tell you somewhere else where they're hoping exactly the same thing: the Republic.  NI's dependency for electricity is more than mirrored by the South's dependency on the UK electricity market (via two big interconnectors) for system balancing: when the wind doesn't blow - there is an awful lot of highly intermittent windpower there; and when it blows a lot - as a much-needed market for electricity exports.

Oh, AND comprehensive dependency on the UK for gas - in pure energy terms, a much bigger deal.  

Curiously, these reciprocal aspects have occurred to none of the eager cut-n-paste reporters following up the story in all newpapers from the lazy comfort of their laptops.

What's even worse is that in all probability, Olly Robbins hasn't mentioned that side of the matter to the craven Mrs May either.

ND 
- - - - - - - 
PS if unable to surmount the FT paywall directly, just google the article 

Brexit is Brexit: Contradiction is Contradiction

I have alway been partial to the principle in formal logic known as RAA - reductio ad absurdum - or; from a contradiction, anything follows.  (I can still use RAA to prove there is no highest prime number, and - just about - that the set of real numbers is uncountable.)

Now: there seems to be just a tiny contradiction in whatever it is that Theresa May thinks she has 'agreed' with the EU.  But - hey, tiny is enough!  And through this contradiction threatens to pour the Irish Sea.

We don't need to fall back into triumphal 'Richard North' mode here, wearing a smug grin and shouting HaHa, You Cretins, HaHa!  In many circumstances, yer average Eurocrat would not be in the least dismayed: he has tried-and-tested ways around these things.  Kicking the can down the road; creative ambiguity; out-and-out fudge; even agreeing things in writing that are infeasible ... Alice-Through-The-Looking-Glass doesn't trouble them, with her silly worries about believing impossible things.

"I daresay you haven't had much practice," said the Queen. "When I was younger, I always did it for half an hour a day. Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast."

Unfortunately, however, for the usual smooth running of European matters, the EU is in an unusually non-creative mood just now.  They have foolishly felt obliged to write everything down in their best 14pt Sans Serif, causing even the irredeemably unimaginative Mrs May to notice what she's done.  Now Major and Blair before her both agreed to things they didn't understand; but they had the political will to tell the House of Commons to knuckle down and get on with it.  May, of course, has none.  So the contradiction is all set to bring the House down.  I imagine many Irishmen on both sides of the (- dare we say it -) Border will be working themselves into apoplexy as I write.

Other things being equal (which they rarely are, see "creative ambiguity" above) this is the end of the cosy transitional arrangement.  It might look as though the contradiction is just in need of a home: Mrs May hopes to pass the parcel to the EU (OK, you build a hard border if you want one), and vice versa.   But RAA doesn't work like that:  a contradiction will pop up just anywhere.

Anyhow, today I met some German friends.  They tell me Germany is quite keen on a couple of years of transition, in order to give themselves more time to unpick lots of complex arrangements currently in place.  They cite Corbyn's latest pronouncement - against Corbyn himself.  That convoluted story of his about Minis: 

"... many businesses have supply chains and production processes, interwoven throughout Europe. Take the UK car industry, which supports 169,000 manufacturing jobs, 52,000 of which are here in the West Midlands. If we look at the example of one of Britain’s most iconic brands in this sector, the Mini, we begin to see how reliant our automotive industry is on a frictionless, interwoven supply chain. A mini will cross the Channel three times in a 2,000-mile journey before the finished car rolls off the production line. Starting in Oxford it will be shipped to France to be fitted for key components before being brought back to BMW’s Hams Hall plant in Warwickshire where it is drilled and milled into shape. Once this process is complete the mini will be sent to Munich to be fitted with its engine, before ending its journey back at the mini plant in Oxford for final assembly. If that car is to be sold on the continent then many of its components will have crossed the Channel four times."

The German response is: do you imagine this situation will last any longer than it takes us to make alternative arrangements?  Only an immediate 'Hard Remain' will stop us pulling the plug. 

So - it's either WTO and Hard Borders all round; or, Mrs May gives up the ghost; or, the EU goes back into creative-fudge mode.  Anybody's guess.  But RAA and the laws of logic are not mocked.

ND

 

A Modest Vote of Thanks to the Irish

Yesterday was really rather special.  Before lunchtime,

1. May - who seems to have taken personal charge** - had impressed the eurowallahs with her earnest, purposeful and thoroughly euro-like weaselling over how many angels can dance on the head of the pin labelled "alignment"++
2. the RoI Irish thought they'd racheted the North ever closer to their clutches
3. Sadiq Khan thought he'd found the perfect precedent for London to declare UDI
4. the Scotty fish-woman thought she'd not only done likewise, she additionally reckoned she'd got a new argument about how Scotland could be independent without a hard border

(Note, incidentally, that J.Corbyn is entirely missing from the action, in any shape or form - more on him later).    

Enter the unsmiling DUP, who pulled out the rug from under the lot.  I reckon they've done everyone a favour, particularly (a) those lazily beguiled by the aptly-termed magic thinking, and (b) anyone who likes to see the smirks wiped off the faces of Sturgeon and Khan.

Of course, the first-level euro-response is: how can anyone be so unsophisticated as not to understand a good weasel-solution?!  But the second-level response is to recognise the situation all too clearly:  May having problems with a small and stroppy coalition partner, which is the basic currency of domestic politics up and down the continent (vide A.Merkel ...)

I have a feeling this is strategically beneficial; because the eurowallahs are inclined to be understanding and helpful to anyone who is willing to join the huddle for a good bit of euro-weaselling; and May now seems to have qualified.  Who can guess where this leads?  But if they no longer think of her as a hostile, distant stand-off, doing her business through the apparently - and I'm sorry to have to say this - doltish Davis, but as another beleaguered European leader in need of intelligent help from her peers (a.k.a solidarity which, as I've said before, we don't really understand in the true euro-way)...  Money?  No object: we've established that.  Rights of citizens?  Trivial.  No - it's all down to the structure of the trade deal: and everyone really wants this to be sensible.

Obviously there's another way to read the first few paragraphs above, namely that Hard Brexit, Hard Borders is now inevitable.  Fair enough.  But that's not my reading just now.

Which brings us finally to J.Corbyn, whose strategy is obviously to let the Tories dig themselves deep in their own excrement, then waltz in to power whenever the next election falls and run with whatever he finds.  His slogan, a Brexit for jobs, is totally non-commital.  The petty malice he intends can be achieved with or without Brexit.  It may still work that way, of course.   (McDonnell, I judge, really does want Brexit because his malice has much more comprehensive and far-reachingly structural aims, impossible within the EU.)  We've discussed a lot of this before (- and I've offered a more pessemistic scenario, too).

Now:  this rather depends on the eurowallahs giving May rock-all.  But if they now find her an acceptable interlocutor^^ - and they know full-well Corbyn's useless & McDonnell's dangerous - and contrive a sensible outcome, they can probably see a result that, pragmatically speaking, is a good deal closer to the status quo than anything they'll get with Corbyn-Labour in charge.

More twists and turns to come, for sure.  The Irish - both tribes - have moved this whole thing onto a different plane.  Quite a lot was banked yesterday and the phoney-war phase may now be over.

ND
____________
**  Ordinarily that's not a move one would recommend for a leader, but in this case it might have worked out for the better

++  Aspects of this are puzzling - although we are talking about Ireland, of course.  For example, from my own sphere: both North and Republic come under an all-Ireland 'SEM' - single electricity market - with a brilliantly pragmatic form of integrated governance / operational mechanism, across two grids and two currencies.  It works!  Do the DUP find this highly subversive?  Or do they, actually, quite enjoy reliable and (for a small island at the very end of the energy system) reasonably-priced electricity?

^^ Guido was onto this boost to her fortunes immediately, quoting Juncker as saying: "She’s a tough negotiator, not an easy one".  Juncker also credited her with negotiating in good faith.  We get the positive message.

Irish sense their moment to strike re Brexit

This is a frankly excellent article on the new Irish position re Brexit.


It delivers a few key truth bullets that are very insightful when it comes to understanding where the Irish are and just how much the border issue is going to be the decisive one.


As BQ wrote on the previous post over the weekend, the money situation is quite easy. We pay them vaguely what they want, we owe them £60 billion in payments anyway for the next 5 years, so really the argument is over a few billion here or there on a Government budget of £800 billion per annum. it is a rounding error and in return we get a Free Trade Deal likely worth £50 billion a year plus in benefits.


The EU citizens rights piece appears to have made great progress with the UK caving in a little re the ECJ and the EU retreating from demanding extra-territorial rights for its UK citizens, plus with the end of free movement but allowance for a Common Travel Area, a deal is in sight.


When you read the article, this has made the Irish nervous, they are the last piece of the jigsaw and fear the EU riding-roughshod over them (if only there were a solution to that.....). Their new super Pro-EU PM has also sensed, rightly, that now is the time for a battle. After December and a deal is agreed, the real Brexit tension will be off.


Also, more genuinely, a land border with the EU is a much harder deal to both sell to the Irish (note in the UK the hard border with France even today, versus the no border in the six counties) than anywhere else. The Good Friday Agreement is not just a stick to beat the English with, there are some substantive points that the UK has not really addressed. As such the Irish have gone in strong and demanded Northern Ireland effectively stay in the Single Market and Customs Union.


Although aggressive, this is the neatest bureaucratic solution, politically it is very tough to sell to the DUP who are the co-partners in the UK Government. British Ministers seem reticent to engage, from the Republics view, likely because they see the three issues as one and are doing horse-trading scenarios with the EU. The Republic is understandably not very keen on this, but equally has peeved EU negotiators by upping the ante when things are already fraught.


One thing unacknowledged by the article though is how credible the threat is, after all, if the Irish veto a deal, the default no-deal results in a much worse outcome for the Republic than any other Brexit situation. The danger with brinskmanship for both sides is that one might actually cause the breakdown that both fear so much.

No change in Ireland for Brexit - or is there?

In a week where some demented person having a breakdown is merrily providing the press with all sorts of nonsense stories, reality is slow to creep back to the table.


Just as James Chapman accuses David Davis of being a part-time layabout, he comes forward with all the proposals the EU has been asking for.


Interestingly, the UK Government has chosen the strategy that I find works really well. Admit defeat, agree to the enemy demands and then see what they do. On Ireland, the proposal is that nothing much changes with the exception of some agri-tariffs.


This meets perfectly what the EU wanted; but its a nightmare for Ireland - effectively it means in theory they could end up the "The Jungle" in Ireland, either at the NI border or in NI itself.


To me this is super idea - no immigrant is going to want to hang around forever in the hideous physical and social climate of Northern Ireland - it is like our own version of the successful, but much maligned, Australian strategy of holding immigrants in an off-shore processing centre. 


So we push most of the problems back to the EU by being broadly compliant with their demands. I like this strategy, there are many ways for it to fail - basically, the EU can always be unreasonable whatever we decide to do, given we are leaving and Article 50 is triggered, but this is nice approach.


Shame everyone is too busy slagging off the entire Government to notice or to give it any credit when it does get things right.

The Blarney

OK, so I am in Ireland just now, working (as ever) on an energy project, which requires me to grapple with the electricity market rules that will be coming into effect in a year or so when the two parts of the overall Irish grid system (North and Republic) harmonise into a single market regime.  Needless to say, this will be broadly along the lines pioneered in the rest of Great Britain nearly 20 years ago, with some very excellent new Irish twists, such as: wind farms must take their chances in to grid along with everyone else, and pay for their own imbalances.  Fair play to the lads! - we could benefit from that here.

Anyhow, as always, the rules are extremely complex, so the designated market operator 'SEMO' has kindly provided a handy guide: "Imbalance Settlement Plain English Version".

And here's an extract (I think it's in gaelic).

Still, that is the simplified version, as they say.  Wish me luck, boys, I'm going in ...

ND

Is There Life Outside London?

...  never mind those 300 billion planets.

Not if you inhabit the Labour Party metro-bubble.  Here's a front page from Labour List and they are reporting on how the party has just lost a council seat in its north-east heartland of a town called "the Brexit-backing city of Middlesborough" (sic) which, apparently, is in somewhere called "Teeside".  It's the first time the Wickedtories have ever won this seat, they say.

Is this perhaps in one of Kev's 20 trillion parallel universes, where there's a river called the "Tee"?   Could it be that the reason Labour loses these elections is because their metro-elite haven't a clue what and where these places really are, or what they are called?

Always nice to be taken seriously and valued.  Maybe even visited once in a while, in a missionary sort of way.  Some of that fine guacamole with my cod-and-chips, please.

ND  

PS - speaking of delicious regional food: I am in Ireland at the moment and have been invited to indulge in what they proudly call the "Full Irish Breakfast".  It is attractively advertised on my hotel menu with this picture. I think I'll have the porridge, actually.

So: Farewell Martin McGuinness

In his fighting prime Martin McGuinness was a seriously professional urban guerilla - and ruthless with it, not least in the business of enforcing discipline within his own ranks.  Many a Brit had reason to view him as the personification of the foe.

But the great genius of the British people is to be pragmatic to the point of magnanimity.  In the aftermath of the brutally-fought Boer Wars Britain's prompt practical and financial support for reconstruction in South Africa led to that new nation being a material contributor to our efforts in both World Wars.  Not for us the old, ahem, Irish game of bitterly nurturing grudges down the centuries.  Settle up and move on.

So when McGuinness converted to the cause of the Peace Process (and peace, too, after a fashion) he was welcomed on board as a constructive actor.  Doubtless it served his political purposes - which is fine: it was a settlement, and politics is generally better than fighting.  

We won't find out what position he'd have taken in the forthcoming argy-bargy arising from the implications of Brexit on British-Irish dealings (although Gerry Adams is clearly much enthused by the opportunities it presents).  What we can say - from across the water - is that he seems to have played the power-sharing game in a fair spirit, right to the end.

So, one way and another: fair play to Martin McGuinness, serious opponent and notable representative of Irish nationalism.

ND

Where should you flee Brexit too if you are a Capitalist Corporation?

So this is easier than you may think to decide. There are five major considerations that any company has to take account of:


Regulatory Environment, Tax, Employment, Language, EU exit potential


For the first, this is how seriously a country takes enforcement or regulatory rules and therefore how much time and effort you will have to put into pretending your company is operating there.


This is quite a hurdle, Ireland for example are saying you have to have significant operations in-country to count. This is not surprising, given how close to death Ireland came in the 2008 Financial crash.


What this means is that very few countries are able to offer the light regulation (this means a brass plate address a la the Cayman Islands). The EU Countries that do are Malta and Luxembourg. Neither of these places really wants large movements of people to them.


Of the other major Countries, Germany, Ireland, France, Holland, Iceland and Lithuania  offer a more challenging regulatory regime, but at least you could actually move people there. Here though both Employment and Language come into play. Ireland apart language is a real issue and notably in France employment issues too - not point being a capitalist company if you can't sack the staff or only hire contractors. The employment element rules out most countries.


Then of course, France and Holland may exit the EU themselves, so why move there for only a temporary escape.


So when it comes down to it, there is only really Luxembourg, Malta and Ireland as serious places to go. Luxembourg ins hands down as many financial services funds are already domiciled in Luxembourg to pay no tax. of course, if you have actual people and business to move then there is Ireland but there regulations mean that is a long process that you really should have started already.


For how long though will the EU put up with Luxembourg offering its companies and UK companies a no-tax jurisdiction within the heart of the continent? Also, when the Financial Transaction tax hits, how much will that hurt the EU trading companies - why bother moving now only to come back later?


As a final thought, due to the above I fully expect to see Luxembourg and Malta veto any moves towards allowing UK passporting or other deals with the EU. They will push for hard Brexit all the way as for them it is a one-way bet.

£13 billion fine for Apple for Irish Sweetheart tax deal

A big fine, worth around €3250 to each Irish citizen.


The US are already unhappy because Apple plays as little tax as possible in the USA and is now daring to pay some in Europe too. Not that Apple will mind, might be quite a relief given the huge cash they have built up and limited investment opportunities open to it.


What of Ireland though...the EU is clearly stepping in, rightly, to stop a sweetheart deal in an economic zone of freedom of capital movement. Other companies may be dissuaded from signing such deals and moving there in the future.


Which all makes sense in the EU zone. It does present an opportunity for the UK; attract Apple with a low rate sweetheart deal and get them to base in the UK post-Brexit. Exactly the kind of mercantilist policy Germany has been using for years via the EU.


Interesting choices for Ireland coming up,  its corporate back taxes, it should go to Ireland, but no doubt the EU will try and claim it as a fine for the EU coffers.


All this on a day when France followed Germany in pulling out of TTIP trade negotiations with the USA too. Brexit shares still moving up, EU ones down.

Huffing, puffing and bluffing

Whelk Stall, Irish-style  (pic: Wiki)

Oh, what a game energy policy is - government picking winners, inventing schemes & subsidies & limits & caps & tax-breaks: industry lobbying, grovelling, blustering, threatening, dissembling, blackmailing, exaggerating ...

Just two examples from the DTel today:

• Exhibit A. Eggborough (a very big coal-fired plant) wants the same ludicrous subsidy promised to Drax (even bigger) for converting to wood-burning.  But the minister has awarded himself discretion and says 'no' - so they are going stamp, scream and hold their breath until they go blue.  Oh, and since price rises are the bogey of the hour, they claim that electricity prices will "spike" 10% upwards  (10% ain't no spike, sunshine). Oh, and since Chinese investment is the order of the day, they claim the Chinese really wanted to buy into Eggborough and will be upset
• Exhibit B.  Centrica, having threatened to withdraw from the UK in response to Milibong's "price freeze", are exiting a UK windfarm project and buying up Irish gas asssets - see, we weren't bluffing !  (Fair play to the Irish for holding out on the price.  But where's Centrica's Chinese angle ? - come on guys, tell your lobbyists to try harder !)

There's decades more of this nonsense still to come.  What a way to run a nuclear-powered whelk-stall.  

ND

Irish Eyes Smiling Again

OUR 3,000 th POST

Back in Dublin after a 6-month gap - and there are striking and visible signs of turn-around to accompany the departure of the Troika.

Yes, after 3 years of their stern bail-out regime, the hated Troika have almost packed their bags.  "The Troika has done more damage to Ireland than Britain ever did in 800 years," said David Begg, head of the Irish Confederation of Trade Unions.  Well there you go, mate: but in a show of bravado the Irish have decided not to have a stand-by credit facility when the bail-out comes to an end a few days before Christmas.

And just hours after all this was announced, the Irish government felt able to call a halt to the big asset sale that was one of the planks of the recovery programme.  The supply business of state gas company Bord Gais had been on the block: but they only received low-ball bids - notably from Centrica, always in the market for fire-sale opportunities - and have decided not to bother. 

The feeling is very much of a people less crushed than they have been for quite a while.  And there are plenty of visible indications of a turn-around.  More traffic on the Dublin streets (though not yet back to the permanent gridlock of the manic Celtic Tiger years); Boris-type bike-racks being installed everywhere, and digital indicator-boards at bus stops.  In a short walk through a scruffy area just south of the river I encountered two brand-new, well-patronised gyms, and a very up-market new kitchen showroom.

And yes, of course, the property market has turned.  Ireland famously saw one of the more dramatic European bubbles expand and burst: for several years property price small-talk replaced the horses as the main topic of conversation - both on the way up and, bitterly, on the precipitous way down.  The number of high-profile bankruptcies and criminal prosecutions that followed in its wake was impressive, day after day in all the papers.

Now, glancing at the property pages over breakfast I see an unremarkable modern 5-bedroom house (southside) at EUR 2.75 million.  And EUR 835 k asked for a 3-bed terrace,  - "even if it is on the northside" as the blurb endearingly admits.

It's not all over yet.  The non-sale of Bord Gais, ditto Aer Lingus and state-owned forestry properties leaves them with a funding gap of several billion.  And in a feisty festive move, employees of the state-owned electricity company ESB are threatening to have the Christmas lights off across the country in a strike over the funding of their pension plan.

And then there was the narrow failure to beat the All Blacks ten days ago, which has everyone down in the mouth.  But hey, that was a glorious and spirited effort.  Probably a metaphor, too.  Fair play to the lads - hope they remember who their friends were.

ND 

Iceland or Ireland?

As time goes by we often wonder what would we have done differently if we had our chances again? The fate of life means that we do not get to undo our mistakes or change our choices. Nor do we know how things would have worked out if we had chosen a different path.

Yet, in our economically broken Western world, there is one nation that chose a different path. Iceland did not go for a too big to fail choice - after all who was going to help? Iceland went for the full blame the bankers option, including defaulting on all foreign debt and leaving the UK and Netherlands to pick up the bill for defaulting Icelandic banks.

Ireland went for bailing out banks it could not afford and believing a promise from the EU that it would help out. Now Ireland and Iceland both suffered huge jumps in unemployment, whilst the Irish currency held together, the Krona collapsed and with it living standards in Iceland...fora while.

But here we are 4 years later and Iceland has 2% growth, is being re-rated in the debt markets, has strong exports and a primary budget surplus. Ireland has only the good exports bit, unemployment remains high, even having the euro as its currency has not kept up the living standards as wages have fallen so far.

Indeed in Iceland the rich have suffered by far the most as their assets were wiped out, this has a long-term impact on ability to grow the domestic economy as the savings rate has fallen, but then Iceland's populace has voted in 2 referenda to make sure it happened this way

So here is the comparison, yes Ireland is 10x the size of Iceland and all comparisons will have to be seen in the light of this, but 4 years on and the economies are going in opposite directions. I can;t say that Ireland made the right choice looking at the results - sometimes a hard landing is worth the pain in the medium term.

Some Rather More Tangible Help For The Irish

But enough of your soft diplomacy - here's the real deal.  From the Irish Independent: 

UK slashes its interest rate on our £7bn bailout loans: the UK has cut the interest rate it charges Ireland for £7bn of bailout loans -- with the Government now set to pay dramatically less to borrow from our nearest neighbour ... Under the new pricing the UK will charge Ireland just 0.18pc above its own borrowing costs for the bailout loans, and the new rate applies to all past and future loans ... would mean Ireland could borrow from the UK at less than 2pc. 

Haven't done the detailed sums yet, but this would appear to be a bit more costly than lending them the Olympic flame.  Funnily enough I can't find it being reported in the UK press this morning ... (though I don't have full access to the FT).

Not sure what message this sends to Alex Salmond ...

ND

Good Diplomacy Needn't Cost Much

I am pretty much of a curmudgeon when it comes to the Olympics but I have to say that someone - Coe ? Moynihan ? Cameron ? HM the Q ? - played a blinder by deciding to let the Irish have the flame for a day. 

Cost to us: zippo - and they loved it ! and are really, really grateful, beyond anything you would guess, nicely consolidating the terrific benefits of the Queen's visit a year ago.  Heart-warming stuff, loads of goodwill towards GB (- if only it were always that easy to please).  You never know, but that sort of thing may pay off handsomely one day soon - Sinn Fein or no Sinn Fein (see post below).  Soft diplomacy ? Why not ?
 
Of course it was all pretty chaotic ("would you ever imagine if they let us organise the whole feckin ting!") but it was fun for all that.

Everywhere I go outside the UK there is a cheery disregard for elf-n-safety and Dublin is no exception, witness this young lady in her enthusiasm to see the flame pass by her office.  Fair play to her !

ND  

C@W in Ireland

So last year I sent a missive from Singapore, noting how well the local branch of C@W was doing on the back of the ads we run there.  And, yes, this occasioned some banter in the comments ... water off a duck's back, business is business.

Well, I am pleased to tell you that my latest inspection reveals our Irish affiliate is also thriving in these hard times, and that advertising is holding up there, too.

 Though what exactly it is for, is another matter altogether ...

ND

Ireland & the Wheelie-Bin of History

Oh dear.  Voting has commenced, starting with Craggy Island, and on Thursday the rest.  They've been told what to do and they'll probably do it.

After years seeking freedom from Britain, and more recently from the Church of Rome ...  and now this.  Recycle your hopes and ballots here.

Oh, and no rollerblading, Dougal !  Behave yourself.

ND


photos (c) Nick Drew 2012

Remind Me How We Got Into This Mess (2)

When you've had a property boom like they had in Ireland, boom-type thinking gets under your skin.  With headlines like this from the Irish Independent, will they ever learn ? 

It's a good time to buy house [sic], says report, even though prices could fall further 25pc. ... There is a huge excess supply [of housing] across the country - 68 months worth of excess supply.

Sounds good to me !  I'm sure the report has lots of sophistry to justify its conclusions.

BTW,  Remind Me How We Got Into This Mess (1) was this, from 4 years ago.  Memories are, as ever, short.

ND