Emerging from the ruins of the Independence campaign that saw their charismatic leader resign and the Independence issue booted down the round for twenty years, incredibly, the new look SNP is stronger and has more support than the party that was heavily defeated only a few months ago.
On tonight's Question Time , from a traditional labour stronghold in Glasgow, the answer to why a sudden surge in SNP support became clearer.
"On the doorstep we are hearing 'Labour sold us out. I will never vote for them again'.
"Labour's decision to join forces with the Tories has cost us very dearly", said Labour's deputy Scottish leader.This was reflected in the audience who asked why Labour had endorsed Tory policies. They didn't need to. They should have campaigned on their policies. Not the coalitions!
So there is one reason. Opportunistic politicking over ideology. Traditional supporters don't like that.
The SNP QT rep raised that "Labour MPs have been instructing their activists to vote Lib dem, or , God forbid, vote TORY, to prevent an SNP win."
That shocking short term vote grab explains an awful lot.
Scottish labour MPs have lobbied Ed Miliband to specifically rule out a deal with the SNP purely to frighten voters into thinking about a possible Conservative victory. Both these attempts are to shore up their own chances of a slender Scottish victory. But by deceit. By fooling and disrupting the usual democratic process. The people won't stand for it..to say to labour supporters vote Tory to help Labour is one thing. To let that message out into the wider world is an appalling gaffe. Setting the idea loose that socialist Scots would rather vote in a Tory government than an SNP one. Its Almost certain to create more SNP voters than before.
Tonight on QT Labour's message was vote Sturgeon..get Cameron. Over and over again used that 'the wider issue is Ed or Dave ..and you will get Dave"
That message isn't really working against UKIP, where it does at least have an element of truth to it.
In England a split Tory-UKIP marginal seat goes to labour.
In Scotland, where the Scottish national party is already the ruling party, that is simply untrue. An SNP seat is just a conditional Labour seat. The SNP have before , and again on Question Time tonight, said they will never, under any circumstances, do any ..ANY..kind of deal with a Tory government. There are no options and nothing is on the table and nothing is going to be put on the table. That's pretty clear. But they will, providing they can get a deal, work with and support a Labour government.
Humza Yousef, of the SNP, was also quite silent when Toby Young suggested that the SNP might demand a scrapping {probably moderated to..no immediate renewal} of Trident for their support. Toby said Ed would readily agree to that.
Which he would .
It delays the nuclear weapon decision for 5 years. Saves Ed the problem of having to deal with it during his minority government that will contain some 50% of Labour MPs who are CND types. With an even higher proportion of 'just say no' amongst its voters.
Toby also reminded the audience that Sturgeon has said she wants £180 billion extra cash for Scotland. She wants the mansion tax money from London as much as Murphy does for Labour.
But a vote for the SNP makes something like this more likely than a vote for Labour.
Because a weak labour party will have to accept the SNP's terms, or hold another election. Something that they could not afford to do, even if they wanted to.
Add to that the Liberal Democrats meltdown. Something that is going to be much worse in Scotland where the Liberals pre-coalition traditional two faced stance was very much to the left of labour and their Tory bed hop was like an act of treason.
So now we can see it.
The SNP is on the rise even after its total defeat on the platform of its very existence, because of the mistakes of the big national parties in recent years. The SNP has a very clear and very strong message. It sounds buoyant. It sounds positive. Labour sound frightened, desperate and panicked.
The voters sense that Scotland can gain a lot more through voting for local politics than it can through voting for national politics.
They are probably right.
20 comments:
It's obviously a long con to keep the union together.
If the SNP are in a coalition with any party at Westminster they will self destruct just like the Lib Dems did. Same goes for the Greens and UKIP.
Before, Thatcher treated the Scots to the Caledonian Poll tax by diktat. Aye before that, in Scotland there always was a considerable blue vote.
These days in Scotland, to admit to voting Tory would be like signing tickets an invitation to your own public tarring and feathering.
What the heck happened to Scotland's sober electorate? Where have, the Protestant vote - sympathetic to all things 'union' gone to?
Have they all moved south, or even further away or gone to earth, subterranean?
Voting SNP, is a suicide trip to financial implosion.
I am not saying that I don' think Scotland could go it alone - of course they could!
Heaven forfend but it would need careful, capable and thoughtful government - none of these qualities are apparent in Pàrtaidh Nàiseanta na h-Alba, indeed the very opposite of all the above is more true.
Sturgeon is a canny operator like fish head himself but she is no visionary leader - she's a mouse.
Crikey, what do the cognoscenti in Edinburgh make of her? Or, have they just given up and are waiting for the EU gravy boat-train to come in?
Scotland is now, the new Lemming land, it will not end well for England nor indeed anyone, particularly the Scottish electorate and especially the poorest up there.
Always, be careful what you wish for.
"The SNP is on the rise even after its total defeat on the platform of its very existence"
Defeat, yes, but not total. From this far south of the border it appears: (i)the vote was close (ii) deperate measures were employed to get it (iii) most crucially the Scots saw the whole power of the establishment from BBC to the Queen politicised and lined up against them. Because of this the "Yes" and the SNP side feel they "won" morally if not actually.
From Elizabeth to Elizabeth: the rise and fall of an Empire.
I am really sorry to repeat this, we will all be the losers, but Scotland will become independent in the near future. With an overwhelming win, the SNP could just declare UDI, for example, but it is coming one way or another. Not least because of Cameron's completely misjudged capitulation to the SNP.
The consequences of this, coupled with our enormous debts, will set back the UK's position in the world drastically: no nuclear deterrent; reduced military spending; loss of power and standing; no seat at the UN; higher interest rates for our debts; 10% cuts to UK ministries; continued money wastage on DfID, windmills etc; exodus of business and the footloose rich; sterling crises; begging to join the euro.
Sturgeon has said she wants £180 billion extra cash for Scotland
No, she said she will want £180bn extra spending for the UK, over and above tory plans, for the years 2015-2020. That £36bn a year or around 2.5% of current GDP. It sounds a lot, but labour can probably manage that without causing a bond crash or run on sterling.
She wants the mansion tax money from London as much as Murphy does
You're so wrong. They want complete independence from London, nothing less. They want to leave the UK, and, I suspect, to join the Euro and run Scotland as a high tax and spend socialist economy.
The SNP is on the rise even after its total defeat on the platform of its very existence
Defeat? Support for independence went from low 30's to high 40's during the referendum. They gained 15% and unionists lost 15%. Plus they wiped out Labour who 'shared a platform' with 'the tories'.
The great pity is that the YES vote lost; had it won, with the collapse in the price of oil, the SNP would be looking like the arseholes they are, and Scotland would have been back with the begging bowl, just as they were after Darien. Now we'll be plagued with them for the foreseeable future.
K. I'm not so sure. They have learned that lesson from the Lib Dems. So they know how to effect a votes for results unofficial coalition.
Anon: Where are the Scots conservatives. They have gone the way of Asquith's Liberal party. They need Independence to resurrect.
Hovis/Steven_L: Now, the referendum was about independence for Scotland.is there any Independence?
No
Where is the leader of the SNP referendum party ?
Gone.
So the SNP was defeated.
But, as I pointed out, they managed their defeat well.
Whilst the victorious union managed their victory incredibly badly.
The SNP managed to bounce back, almost instantly, from their loss.
And it was a loss. They added votes, but nowhere near enough. They were behind on 51 out of 52 polls. That final panic from Dave-Gordon-Nick-Ed got them off the hook. Claiming a moral victory.
The AV referendum people have never been heard from again.
What struck me on QT was just how confident the SNP spokesperson and their audience members were. These weren't the shouty SWP loons. Or boring labour activists with their tractor stats of woe. Or even UKIP types whining about their lack of a voice.
They sounded like winners.
That should frighten the red underpants off of Miliband.
In Godfather II Michael Corleone , in Cuba, says "I saw a rebel today. He blew himself up taking a captain of the guard and some soldiers with him."
..
"What does that tell you?"
..
"It tells me they can win."
Budgie: That may be. Devolution is first step separation.
However, Northern Ireland, of which we hear nothing, is still hanging in there, almost 100 years after the first break up.
{not that we want to go through that sort of history with Scotland}
That final panic from Dave-Gordon-Nick-Ed got them off the hook
I'm not sure you know much about Scots politics. I reckon it was all of the Westminster establishment lining up together that pushed so many people over to the 'yes' camp.
It was basically the grey vote that kept Scotland in the UK. Old folk don't like change.
SL: I know little about Scots politics. You ares probably correct. There was a sustained attack from all quarters against separation.
even though there was probably a 35-45% wish for Scotland to go it alone in England.
Giving Devo-max concessions, when they really didn't need to, did give the SNP a victory of sorts. Allowed them to say this was just phase one..each time we will get more until victory.
It is a terrible mistake to allow the enemy to march off the field with their arms and colours, when they have been defeated.
The defeat can quickly be brushed aside.
That 'stab in the back' myth gains acceptance ?
I tell you something, Mandy will be pouring out instructions to Mili just now, the lines will be red-hot
knowing (as a spectator) how vicious scottie politics are, I can imagine some really nasty things are gonna happen in the next two months
Politics in Scotland (particularly in Glasgow where I grew up) is a rough old business, with a lot of sectarian undercurrents that pass you English by. Labour getting on the same platform as the Tories is seen by some loons as akin to Gerry Adams joining hands with the UVF. Sounds ridiculous, doesn't it? Except that the Scottish Tories are really the inheritors of the old Unionist party in Scotland, all Paisley's mates, the ones who march around with large drums, hate the Catholics and in the late 60s offered thousands of informal 'reinforcements' for the nutters in Ulster who were beating up the civil rights marchers who simply wanted the suffrage extended. These undercurrents are still there and people's memories are long. There is also the unhappy Scottish characteristic summed up in the phrase "he'd rather have the grievance."
I was back home the other week and got into a furious row with a relative who called me a quisling who should fuck off back to England. All because I happened to venture the opinion that the Union had worked well and we should keep it. Scotland has become insular and nasty in a way it wasn't when I was a young man. You hear people say things about "the English" that if said about, say, black Africans, would get them banged up. These nutters used to be a freak minority, but the dungheap in Edinburgh has given them a bully pulpit they have exploited very cleverly. They are authoritarian nationalist socialists who behave like Militant Tendency, and I fear for the future.
Anon 5:39am said: "... Thatcher treated the Scots to the Caledonian Poll tax ...".
I do get bored with that sort of me-me whinging - "Thatcher" treated the rest of the UK, not just Scotland, to the "poll tax" as well. Moreover, it was not just "Thatcher" it was the entire Conservative cabinet that supported it, not least because of complaints from Scotland, and the rest of the UK, about how unfair the rates were as a system.
An old, non-existent, unpopular tax system does not seem to me an adequate reason to break up the UK. Thatcher, whatever her imperfections (like all of us) was tremendously popular, never voted out of office by the electorate, and transformed this country from the 1970s "sick man of Europe" into a success story copied all over the world.
If only Blair and Cameron had been both as honest and competent as Thatcher we would not be in the mess we find ourselves today.
The best view of the referendum was given by the Fat Bigot http://thefatbigot.blogspot.co.uk/
We went to Scotland in the run up to the referendum. As a boy, I was taken to Scotland for the Royal Scots reunion, a regiment in which my father served, despite being a Sarf Lundun lad. I was therefore unprepared for the way we were treated. The anti-English feeling was palpable.
The worst incident resulted in my wife and I being thrown out of a hotel restuarant at 9:45 because the owner decided he wanted to close. The cab firm that we had booked the return trip with for 10.00 denied any knowledge. Fortunately, the English lady manager gave us a lift back.
So, the SNP have carte blanche to screw the English. Dave has been an utter failure, Miliband, were he the leader of any other party would have been put down years ago and I won't even bother with Clegg.
So thanks to all of the above I, an Englishman, will be ruled by a Marxist wet Kleenex and a Marxist Scot.
Suddenly, even Marbella looks attractive...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWNDX19okqs
For your enjoyment!
Stirring myself out of my gloom, I suppose the obvious answer to the question is that the 45% deadheads are all voting for one party, whereas the sensible people's votes are split at least 3 ways. So in first past the post the SNP will win big, and the "wrong type of Scots" will be unrepresented.
Seb - The best thing about Jock-mcjock link is the number of people strolling about behind the person talking.
Can't imagine that in London. Someone would have waved..someone run away and someone shouted out "wan-###ah"
Lord Baker's suggestion of a Con/Lab coalition would also play into the SNP's hands - can imagine the claims of a Westminster stitch up already, which would further entrench the SNP. I think we need to just accept Scotland is drifting away.
ditto in Wales....strong anti-English sentiment....they will be next.
Yn gyntaf Alban , Ar ôl Gymru
- David Llewellyn
Post a Comment