Monday 27 June 2016

Victory Parade

We’ll all remember where we were. I’d been hors de combat all night (at a hospital bedside), but at 3 am found myself on a night bus, where a fellow night rider was calling the results off his phone. Nothing conclusive by that stage but when I went to bed at 4 am there was the first hint of dawn over the horizon from the north east - literally as well as figuratively. 

So now, a triumphal parade of the victors and the captives-in-chains 
  • Cameron 
Nothing became him in office quite like the leaving of it. He obviously came to his senses big-time in the early hours: and you gotta take your hat off. The delay in invoking Article 50 is a minor masterstroke (see Eurocrats below), echoing Michael Howard in 2005.  So much time, for so many Events to happen, for so much initiative to be deployed.  The weapon has been forged: no need to use it for a single, ill-thought-out stroke.  If Cameron continues to play the game with that degree of clarity over the summer, he’ll be well regarded for it. 
  • That old C@W favourite, ‘Strategic’ Osborne 
Manoeuvred himself right up his own fundament. The fatuous ‘punishment budget’ stunt suggests a conversation that probably took place 14 days ago ...
DC: You told me Fear would work, but it bloody doesn’t. We’re even having to wheel Brown out now! If this goes pear-shaped, you’re toast. Pull your finger out, matey! 
 GO: Errr, yes, OK, I’ll get cracking 

Now he’s not even among the Runners & Riders. Will have to play a Treasury blinder over the summer if he’s not to appear in history as the lowest form of political life. Or maybe leave it all to Carney … All those years of kowtowing to the Chinese, to underpin his 2020 government. All that promotion of Hinkley Point (EDF must be a screaming short trade). All those pathetic Tory backbenchers who grovelled to him. Toast?  Dust. 
  • Sadiq 
Clearly a bit of an operator. While the Benns and McDonnells and Hodges and Abbbottts and (eventually) Watsons are jerking off in various Westminster committee rooms and recording studios, Sadiq is actually angling to play serious power politics in a sphere of his own. Creativity-plus-initiative is everything at times like this. King over the water? It worked for Boris, and Julius Caesar. (But not for Ken. Or General McArthur.) 

PS, I did say that Sadiq was the price of Brexit … 
  • Momentum 
The McDonnell strategy is playing out. (1) protest undying loyalty to the Sainted Jeremy and his mega-mandate … (2) … in the certain knowledge this is a doomed cause; no need to be seen with a knife when every other bugger is wielding one (3) rouse the Momentum hordes into a frenzy of ‘keep-the-2015-flame-alive’ passion (4) watch Jeremy expire in revolutionary martyrdom with several blades between his shoulders (5) ride to glory at the head of the Momentum Massive (6) win the snap election of October 2016. Easy.  Actually, he must know that scenario isn’t remotely a shoe-in: but hey, what better chance does an old fully paid-up Stalinist have? 

PS what’s Watson up to? Sorry, I have no intelligence on that: but it is obviously designed to thwart (5) above. 
  • Boris 
Clever old Boris.  (Unless he offers Osborne a deal.)
  • MPs 
On one theory, there is a clear all-party majority of Remainder MPs. Parliament works by formed factions that command working majorities. If they were all as pro-EU as (say) Damian Green, one might imagine a functional Parliamentary Remain Party being created that could do, well, whatever it wanted in that cause (even appoint a PM and government of its own). If they were all really pro-EU. And if there was any serious natural leadership in evidence. 

There’s the flaw: because I reckon the majority of MPs are careerist tossers to whom the above strategy isn’t worth the candle. They’ve all got battles to fight within conventional existing-party frameworks, not least including de-selection (or being KIPpered) at the next election if they don’t get with the Brexit programme. 

Leadership? Heseltine fumes from the wings but, errr … But I suppose there may be some MP out there we’ve never really noticed. Could be interesting. Probably not.
  • Eurocrats 
Behaving as badly as ever, they learn nothing, they can’t help themselves. And, if we are correctly informed, they are about to open the sluice-gates on a pent-up flood of ‘sensitive’ measures they were holding back until, errrr, now. Good luck with making us feel buyers’ remorse when we watch you opening your doors to Turkey and banning our toasters.

Hint: there is no more BAU. If you haven’t spotted that, Merkel will be taking you by the elbow some day soon. Or the goolies. She’ll get the point across somehow. 
  • Sturgeon 
Thrashing around a bit, actually, in her proactive and articulate way. She really doesn’t want to negotiate separation terms with a confident new Tory PM, or to row off in her little boat into a world of $50 oil. And the Eurocrats may not offer her anything tasty on a plate: their instincts are not to trade with cessationists; just like the taxman won’t trade with you in hypotheticals. They’ll still be busily admitting Turkey and banning toasters. One other thought: if the Scotties are really pissed off, I’d say the prospect of copping the Euro will NOT be a major deterrent next time around. 
  • UKIP 
Interesting. Is their work done, do they go home now? The new PM had better hope not, because if the Tories get their act together, while the ex Tory Kippers will be drifting back, the Labour Party will still be haemorrhaging in that direction. Making that October election all the easier. 

*  *  *  *  *  *  *  *

Yes, quite a dawn. One that cheered up the hospital patient no end. 



CityUnslicker said...

The Tories have to go for UKIP a la the Lib Dems.

The 52% - see what the SNP have done for that. if the Labour loons go pro-EU (that always back a loser so have form for this) and Lib Dems too. Then those who voted Brexit will be getting a huge majority in Parliament. AN open Tory party, talking of NHS and workers rights, immigration and trade deals could easily win.

They can even shed a good 10% of people who are busily re-canting under media and peer pressure and still easily win a majority in the commons.

It is a big ask mind!

Elby the Beserk said...

Cameron may have resigned with dignity - but the fact that the government has clearly made NO arrangements whatsoever to deal with a Brexit vote shows him to be the hollow man he is. Thwarted, he's stamped his foot, said sod this, and buggered off. I'm not sure he even considers himself to be PM any more. Get a bloody grip man - and for starters, send in the Black Suits to have a word with the BBC, who seem to be leading a charge to destroy democracy.

Sebastian Weetabix said...

I've been grinning since about 3am last Friday morning. There is something magnificently obdurate about the English working classes. The more you threaten them the more likely they are to tell you to fuck off.

I'd keep back Article 50 for at least a year. Keep Schulz & Juncker dangling. In the meantime we can take a leaf out of the German book and make our supreme court the equal of the European one.

I wish that screeching Jack Lemmon lookalike in Bute House, that dead ringer for Wee Burney, would just shut the fuck up. In the mean time Mr Cameron could do the country a good turn simply by saying there'll be no Scottish referendum until after the separation from the EU is complete. Then we'll have a vote. If the EU is still in existence by then.

Electro-Kevin said...

I still don't think we'll be leaving the EU.

The young are being deliberately antagonised. The one an only reason for a demographic and geographical breakdown of results was to foment division.

I have read internet comments this morning "The old can try out-rioting the youth if they like."

Well I'm in no mood for violence but I have told my pro EU son (the other sceptic) that if he does not respect the democratic will expressed through this vote then he will be struck out of my will and his university assistance stopped.

He can riot when he's paying his own bills.

By then he'll be grown up enough not to do it. We really are going to have to be this tough on them, I'm afraid.


How peculiar that over 50% of the population are anti EU yet 2/3rds MPs pro. This is deliberately engineered by those with true power.

Electro-Kevin said...

55% of Scots did NOT vote to Remain by my calculations.

Electro-Kevin said...

Loose Women (the ITV show) have just declared themselves a 'Brexit Free Zone' to much orchestrated cheers and applause.

Bill Quango MP said...

Rioting and violence?
Seems a lot of agro for the 5% total change to everything that is coming our way.

L fairfax said...

If Sadiq Khan becomes leader it could hurt Labour in the North.

Dick the Prick said...

Hope all's well ND.

Gay marriage and Brexit such is his legacy.

What puzzles me is why lead the campaign? The only important point of the referendum was to shoot UKIPs fox - it didn't matter at all what the bloody result was. Had he made some private deal, assured the G7 it was in the bag - 'if it looks dodgy, i'll put my back into it'?

I'm not totally sure this was a class thing as such, I think a lot of us had made our minds up 5 years ago and, if anything, their woeful and mendacious campaign made it worse. It's one thing Farage wandering about talking bollox but quite another for the Treasury.

I share EK's concerns that we're gonna get blind sided but that's how these fuckers operate and where Ukip need to remain viable for the next election. I can't see Tories profiting oop north much.

Anyway - that was Cameroonism, I guess. Probably represents his character a bit too realistically - good PR but quite vacuous.

Blue Eyes said...

It seems to me that Cameron resigned only to prevent Art 50 from being triggered on Friday morning. He bought some time rather than encouraging the country and continent to panic.

Maybe the Tories can find a consensus candidate: do you think David Cameron can be persuaded to stand in the leadership election?

Sebastian Weetabix said...

I think the country has had enough of that particular old Etonian. He couldn't negotiate anything last time round & I doubt he would be any better this time.

Dick the Prick said...

That's all he's ever been, the compromise candidate. Can you remember that he beat Dave Davis by err... making a speech without notes and wandering about a bit? That's how high the bar was!

Elby the Beserk said...

Anonymous Sebastian Weetabix said...
I've been grinning since about 3am last Friday morning. There is something magnificently obdurate about the English working classes. The more you threaten them the more likely they are to tell you to fuck off.

I'd keep back Article 50 for at least a year. Keep Schulz & Juncker dangling. In the meantime we can take a leaf out of the German book and make our supreme court the equal of the European one.

Ah - all very well, but the German Supreme Court has NEVER actually asserted its supremacy, and has always bowed down to EU legislation. The pretence of democracy is as bad as the deliberate destruction of it. As a large part of the UK now seem intent on, egged on ny the ever impartial BBC.

CityUnslicker said...

BE - no, he really meant it. That is why he told George to do the punishment budget thing. That alone probably lost the vote.

The pair of them have talked the country down, Osborne this morning trying to calm things is not going to work. he should resign immediately and let one of his deputies who is for leave take over.

PM is one thing, but GO has to go.

Blue Eyes said...


Anonymous said...

37% of Labour voters choose Leave - sky falls in on Corbyn.

36% of SNP voters chose Leave - Sturgeon supreme and in every news outlet.

How odd.

Nick Drew said...

Thanks, DtP

markc said...

I don't want to appear stupid (yeah, I know, forlorn hope) but what is BAU?

Nick Drew said...

Business As Usual, mark

markc said...


Thanks, Nick.

Nick Drew said...

professor google for you next time ..!

markc said...

I did, I promise! Done let me down..........

Nick Drew said...

fair enough: but g + wiki is the favoured approach, you get their excellent 'disambiguation' service ...