I have always loved UK politics, I remember being very into the 1987 General Election, I was 12! I guess that makes me a nerd. I was even a very active activist for a while in the late 1990's and early 2000's.
As such, I reckon I know quite a bit about the subject. So I can't really believe what I am about to write, but here goes.
Theresa May's manifesto launch was awful, really awful. The BBC focused on protestors, the policies were anti-old people, anti-libertarian, tax rises and doom and gloom. And even with that it still did not reduce the deficit properly.
Corbyn launched Labour's fantasy manifesto to a group of highly-motivated toddlers who clapped and cheered. People talked about how some of these policies were a good idea; in the same way that the sun rising and blue skies are nice, but still. They did.
The Lib Dems, having chosen the worst strategy ever, being pro-remain, economically lefty and socially liberal in the UK in 2017 is, well, politically toxic. They also have some sort of stop-motion model as their leader. They will lose seats in the election and they only had 8 to start with.
UKIP, well, UKIP. I pity the receptacle of my vote for the past 10 years. They too have a total plonker as loser, having rejected some better ones along the way. They have no coherent policy base to speak of and have to hope they will keep some vote share. Their vote share though will be around 1/3rd of what it was just 2 years ago. Their victory in Brexit was awesome, their usefulness to UK domestic politics is at an end.
So now the polls are showing UKIP and Lib Dems as near wipeouts. The loony Greens can happily vote Labour as they have the same mad policy platform.
But Labour have the momentum, they started from a low base so just adding on the suicidal Lib Dems vote, shows them to be firming up. The Tories, having started so high, could literally only go backwards - and they are, albeit very slightly.
May gambled that an honest manifesto which was realistic could work. Perhaps she was wrong. Many people are silly these days;
'I'll vote for Corbyn, then I won't have to pay Uni for my kids, someone else will"
Of course someone does, but that someone is not you, it is those evil businesses and city types and those baby-eating Tories. I watched a bit of the ITV debate last night, it is sad how partisan the Country now is, the Tories made out to be actually evil and 'murdering the disabled.'
So Corbyn has the momentum, plus he can campaign, it is thing. The press are bored of reporting the Diane Abbot levels of incompetence, so look for them in the Tories too, when the comparison is fatuous. The Tory front bench has little real talent. The Labour front bench is actually full of morons, Angela Rayner struggles to even string a sentence together; it is woeful.
So there are only 2 scenario's; Labour advanced, the Tories wobble and the election gets much closer. After all, if May gets less than 50 majority she will in reality look a fool for holding the election.
Or perhaps people get over this mid-election wobble and flood back to the Tories at the end.
The way I see Corbyn winning is not in 2017 however, but in 2022. Brexit will be hard, the EU will make it tough, a recession is nailed on for sometime in the next 5 years. A Labour party within a few points of the Tories in 2017, will win in 2022 - imagine if that is a party still led by the hard left SJW faction! It will be time to emigrate, sharpish.