Friday 16 November 2018

BREXIT COMPO: No Plan Survives First Contact With ...

... reality.  I wonder how well Mr Barwell's wargaming is standing up to what's unfolding before us.

Anyhow:  it's Compo Time at C@W!

At the start of the First World War the FT ran a compo.  They printed a big empty map of Europe, on which entrants had to mark what they reckoned would be the national borders when hostilities ceased and the losers had been carved up.  (History does not record who won, and how close they came to the actual result.)

So - your predictions, please, for the state of play on Brexit Day 29 March 2019:
  • who will be PM?
  • has there been a GE?   If so, what headline outcome?
  • has a 2nd referendum happened?  If happened - question? result?
  • in broad terms, on what basis is the UK / EU relationship set for the immediate 12 months following that date?
  • has Gove disappeared up his own fundament? 
  • do the LibDems still exist? 
  • tie-breaker: any other colourful details concerning British politics you care to append? (this is not mean as an open invitation to devise cruel and unnatural punishments for your pet-hate politicians)  
Events are obviously moving fast, so we'll set a closing date of midnight Friday next (23rd).  Anyone who offers an early entry is free to offer a revised entry up until that deadline.  Small prize.



Bill Quango MP said...

So - your predictions, please, for the state of play on Brexit Day 29 March 2019:

who will be PM? Still Lady Jane May

has there been a GE? If so, what headline outcome? NO

has a 2nd referendum happened? If happened - question? result? _ did not happen

in broad terms, on what basis is the UK / EU relationship set for the immediate 12 months following that date? - The UK will feel it has not got control it needs. The Italian problem will allow people to feel we might have dodged a bullet by leavingish.

has Gove disappeared up his own fundament? No - He is foreign secretary

do the LibDems still exist? - who cares?

Charlie said...

May will cling on as PM by dint of nobody else wanting the job. Gove has hedged his bets on this.

No chance of a GE.

Can't see a second referendum happening.

We'll leave with a slightly less shit deal that will allow us to forge our own trade deals, with none of this third country arbitration/ECJ nonsense, and we'll have told the EU to build a hard border between Ireland and NI if it wants one.

Embarrassingly, I used to defend Gove. How poor a judge of character I am.

Lib Dems are alive and well and still have 100+ MPs sitting on the government benches pretending to be Tories.

Anonymous said...

Can a newbie have go?

PM = May
GE = No
2nd neverendum = No
UK/EU relationship = status quo: classic EU can-kicking
Gove = who cares, the mans a little shit
LibDems = stll here, both of them
any other = Sadiq announces not going for Mayor again, Corbyn visibly in the next next to the door

Anonymous said...

That should be "bed next"!

E-K said...

I have no idea.

I expect we'll be remaining.

Anonymous said...

In reverse order

Lib Dems have a financial and existential crisis and after 10 minutes of navel gazing come up with a rebrand - Democratic Liberals. Silently leave parliament at next elections as the public don't know who the DL are.

Gov announces he has rejected requests to be Pope and will continue his current position as Archbishop of Canterbury from the church's new location at a Priory clinic.

The EU and UK announce a ground breaking new Long Term Economic Plan based on mutual respect for each other's interests and values. No change from current position detected. Pound reaches all time high.

2nd Referendum is cancelled in favour of plans for a third due sometime in 2029.

GE held in 2020 as planned with widespread gains for everyone apart from the Democratic Liberals. Electoral Commission puts the blame of the Florida "protocols" that were adopted just prior.

TM voted as PM for life as no one wants the job.

Tie breaker: All colourful details now with the Whips office

E-K said...

I now recall saying that Cameron would (in the event of a Leave result) say "Ah. Well. This gives me grounds to go back and renegotiate with Brussels."

It didn't quite turn out like that. He walked away. In all other senses I got it right though.

I voted for a cliff edge. We were told emphatically that Leave was a cliff edge. Here we are over two years later with no preparation for No Deal and it is clear that the ERG/1922 lot have bottled it.

They've lost the Daily Mail to a new Remain owner.

On this basis:

- PM = May

- GE = No

- 2nd referendum = YES (but not in the timescale given)

- We Remain, vassal state

- Gove - couldn't care less

- Lib Dems = Nick Clegg and Brussels love him, even better now that he's unelected.

dearieme said...

I'm quite prepared to believe that Grove is a clever chap but as a politician he's unimpressive. I suppose if he ends up PM he'll argue otherwise.

DJK said...

PM: May
GE: No
Ref2: No
UK/EU relationship: Indistinguishable from present day
Gove: Becomes May ultra-loyalist
LD: Nobody cares
AOB: Boris announces he'll be leaving the HoC to concentrate on journalism.

Jan said...

PM Jacob Rees-Mogg
No general election or 2nd referendum
Clean(hard) Brexit
Gove still lurking in hie Environment post
LibDems no change
Hunt still at FO; Savid still at Home Office; Teresa May resigned in a huff and is writing her memoirs; Boris has a ministerial post (DWP would be a laugh); his brother is promoted to a cabinet post

Probably a long way away from what will happen.......who knows?

dearieme said...

How about a touch of the Roman Empire: Boris and his bro as joint emperors?

One for the West (Wales, Cornwall, Scotland and Northern Ireland) and one for the East, principally Constantinople-on-Thames.

E-K said...

Please don't be taken in by the "Stoic May" con.

She is being VERY well looked after. Particularly her mental state.

"Keep fucking it up, girl. That's all you have to do."

Sleep deprivation. A great device in negotiation and interrogation. I expect Ollie and Theresa were well dosed up.

Anonymous said...

"They've lost the Daily Mail to a new Remain owner."

It's still the same owner, Lord Harmsworth. His wife is fanatically pro-EU, and got upset with being jeered at by Establishment types at smart dinner parties because of the Mail's pro-Brexit position. She nagged her husband into appointing "Gordie" Greig (Old Etonian, chum of David Cameron, even more of a pro-EU fanatic) as the new editor, to replace Paul Dacre.

What the Daily Mail itself has lost is 15% of its readership in the past month, with the slide continuing.

E-K said...

Thanks, Anon.

I still visit online. Does that count as readership ?

Anonymous said...

"Readership" refers to the figures for the print edition. I do not know about the web-site.

Despite the Mail's snake-like editorial U-turn, and the consequent capitulation of most of its journalists, one of them managed to sneak a subversive comment in today, at the very end of her page.

This was a Twitter-quote from a man in Cornwall, who wrote: "May's Brexit plan reminds me of Dunkirk, but without the boats."

AndrewZ said...

My guess is that Tory loyalty to the party, fear of a GE and fear of "No Deal" will ensure that the current draft of the Withdrawal Agreement just squeaks through Parliament. Therefore:

1. PM = May
2. No GE
3. No second referendum
4. UK/EU relationship for the next 12 months after 29/03/19 is as defined in the current WA
5. Gove still in the same position, but keeping his head down until it becomes clear how this is all going to end
6. LibDems still exist but hors de combat while they try to deal with the party's financial crisis

Tie breaker:

1. ECJ is hearing a case on November 27th about whether the Article 50 notice to leave can be revoked. It will rule that this can be done because it would be absurd to insist that such a huge decision was irrevocable no matter how the circumstances changed (e.g. election of a new government that was opposed to leaving the EU).

2. Remain ultras will be ecstatic until they realise that it doesn't matter because the government has no intention of ever using that option.

3. Labour finally has a coherent policy on Brexit - no, wait, that's ridiculous. I'll go with something more plausible. The little grey aliens finally return Elvis in a gold-plated flying Cadillac to stop Hitler's brain in a jar having a secret conference with one of JFK's clones at Watford Gap service station on the M1.

Anonymous said...

pm: corbyn.
ge. yes after no confidence motion early dec.
2nd ref. no.
lib who ?
exit. clean/hard, relationship with eu confrontational.
everyone sensible deeply depressed. pound parity with euro. socialists happy. train staff ecstatic. boris loses seat. gove head of opposition. crossrail still not open. russia does something provocative beginning april.

andrew said...

who will be PM?
TM will announce resignation on 29/3/19
Gove will stand in until election
has there been a GE?
If so, what headline outcome?
has a 2nd referendum happened?
If happened - question? result?
in broad terms, on what basis is the UK / EU relationship set for the immediate 12 months following that date?
much the same as the previous 12 months except the UK has absolutely no influence and the EU are unaccountably (in every sense) in control. There is a boot that is pressing down on our faces for the indefinite future. Everyone is discontent and all think that if only... all would be well about three contradictory courses of action.
But there will be no such word. That word which is not will be Weltschmerz.

has Gove disappeared up his own fundament?
only visually.
do the LibDems still exist?
at best there are only a few contradictory urban myths that indicate there ever were any.
This is the final victory of the deep state.
Our governing classes can continue blaming their failures on the EU
- even once we have left the EU.

Hopper said...

1. who will be PM? (gulp)

2. has there been a GE? If so, what headline outcome?
Yes. Labour/SNP coalition squeaks a 5-10 seat win. (Headline "Decisive Labour triumph")

3. has a 2nd referendum happened? If happened - question? result?
No. Lots of excuses about timing which are true but not that germane.

4. in broad terms, on what basis is the UK / EU relationship set for the immediate 12 months following that date?
Camouflaged trade war.

5. has Gove disappeared up his own fundament?

6. do the LibDems still exist?
Hard to tell./

7. tie-breaker: any other colourful details concerning British politics you care to append? (this is not mean as an open invitation to devise cruel and unnatural punishments for your pet-hate politicians)
I'm hoping for Diane Abbott to be in some analogue of Minister for pseudo-Brexit, mostly for comic relief.

Nick Drew said...

I had better take a crack meself:

PM: May
GE: No
2nd Ref: No
UK/EU relationship: essentially as per current draft following mass failure of nerve by Tory Brexiteers, plus Labour MPs finally losing patience with Corbyn

(Gove: still runting about, trimming & positioning & nipping off for little convesations with Murdoch)
(LibDems: ditched Cable in disgust at weak performance, no-one notices)

Other: my reading of Murdoch - he seems to be lining up to support the current deal (you can generally tell by the line Guido promotes or, as in this case, fails to promote) which will be significant during the Parliamentary shenanigans

CityUnslicker said...

PM: Corbyn
2nd Ref: YES
UK/EU Relationship - remained.

If you all insist on being middle of the roadish then mine in the value bet in the compo!

GridBot said...

Left field punt at 100 to 1...

PM: Sadiq Khan (having some how maneuvered to be Labour Leader)
GE: Yes 20 seat labour majority with a resurgence in scotland/decline in SNP popularity
2nd Ref: Yes with a 48.1 Leave and a 51.9% Leave on a lower turnout (it is later proven by historians that the vote was rigged/influenced by momentum activists)
UK/EU Relationship - remained and also signed up for greater union - Pound scheduled to be replaced by Euro.

Other Juicy bits. EDL/UKIP resurgant in a big way, civil disorder, Sadiq Khan declares emergency measures to increase control - paves way for Further islamification of UK. Rise of right wing terrorism across EU/UK ultimately leading to significant conflict across EU.

ThomasBHall said...

1. PM -May
2. No GE
3. No second referendum- but still plenty of talk on one
4. UK/EU relationship is as today- as a special extension has been given on Article 50.
5. Gove still in
6. LibDems still exist

Nick Drew said...

GridBot's well in front for genuinely imaginative narrative

and that's a compliment - lack of imagination in strategical thinking is the big problem

Anonymous said...

I'll have a punt for shits and giggles!

May will survive the potential no confidence vote as the Brexit wing has, errr, no confidence in itself as well as no confidence in May.

Her Brexit bill will fall at the first hurdle and, in a spat, will then be turned into a referendum, with No Brexit, May's Brexit and No Deal Brexit as the options. Parliament will happily accede to the request and to make it binding, as the Remainers will be confident we'll vote Remain, the Brexiteers will be confident we'll vote No Deal and the Maybots, using the same incisive tools that delivered at the last election, will be confident we'll all vote May's Deal.

Remain will succeed as no one will vote for May's Deal, and the Brexiteers have been worn down by the crap government and all the incessant infighting and farting around.

May will step down and trigger a GE.

A population agog at two years of twatting around over Brexit, irate at a police force that'll not turn up to actual crimes, main roads resembling Himalayan dirt tracks and a train service that aspires to being fucking useless will not so much turn their back on the Tories, as concluding watching a repeat on telly will be more beneficial to their life than ticking Conservative.

And so Corbyn will get in, not through his own success, but through the torrent of Tory failings going back to the Coalition days. And then he'll spend ages being frustrated at EU rules stopping him turning the UK into a Marxist paradise and all those Corbynistas who voted Remain will turn into Brexiteers all to late.


1: PM Grandpa Spart
2: GE, record low turnout, and a slight Labour majority
3: Second referendum, which will just be grim for all concerned
4: Getting ready to be fully EUthenised
5: Gove ends up leading to Tory party. And discovers he's useless, to the shock of no one but himself.
6: The Lib Dems will rebrand themselves as Kaiser Soze, mainly as everyone has heard of them, but no one has seen them.

andrew said...

If there is a prize for best story, anon gets it imo

botogol said...

gosh, entering a C@W compo - it feels like 2008

boring answers: move on, nothing to see here.

Who will be PM?
- May, still
has there been a GE? If so, what headline outcome?
- Nope
has a 2nd referendum happened? If happened - question? result?
- Nope

in broad terms, on what basis is the UK / EU relationship set for the immediate 12 months following that date?
- Transition - ie status quo

has Gove disappeared up his own fundament?
- he has actually unveiled some bold new, well thought through environmental poicies.

do the LibDems still exist?
- who? but sadly yes

tie-breaker: any other colourful details concerning British politics you care to append? (this is not mean as an open invitation to devise cruel and unnatural punishments for your pet-hate politicians)