This is the biggest unknown question at the moment - jut how bad is Covid-19 and how bad is the economy?
Boris is back at work today, but after the scare he had you can imaginehe will be very conservative on following the health guidance.
But the Government is rapidly getting into crazy amounts of debt and the economy is ruined for a generation already. People are talking about a recession worse than 2008 (supposedly a once in two generation event) but to me it seems not really dealing with what that means.
The comparison is now crucial because it will determine the next phase. At some point lockdown will be releaxed, but I fully expect a crash in the stock markets and property prices at that time, as the damage becomes more visible.
In parrallel we will know if the end of lockdown increases the virus spread once more and by how much. It could be we get back to the early March situation very quickly, or it could be that we stabilist with it in our society but at a lower level.
Closing our economy will kill tens of thousands of people, this will only exaccerbate the curretn situation. Already hospitals are empty as people stay away, many of the 'excess' deaths reported are likely to be not Covid but people dying of strokes and heart attacks at home. Missing cancer scanning and treatment is also lethal.
Such a hard balance to get right, but to my mind the Government should press on with ending lockdown at the beginning of May to begin an assessment of the situation, following the Red/Amber/Green type strategy recommended here and elsewhere a couple of weeks ago.