Thursday 5 November 2020

The Trump who cried wolf

Quite interesting seeing the US have to wait for the Presidential outcome, like here in the UK when we had to wait in 2010 for the coalition to form - all very odd for those not used to it. 

I think Trump is about to learn the moral of the the tale of the boy who cried wolf.

Hard as it is to ascertain facts in this hyper-partisan time, it seems very odd that in a few key states something like 98%+ of the postal ballots went Biden. I mean it does not pass the smell test that. Even in Islington in the UK you would not get that level vote or indeed in say Surrey Heath. 

However, Trump has been on about this forever and is on about it in other cases where it is far less likely to be true. Mass accusations generally are a bad idea becuase they don't stand up to scrutiny.

Additionally, by signalling for months that he was going to do this, the Democrats have got their act together, with their own lawyers and attack lines. So Trump has given away his offensive advantage. 

So now he is going to go mad about fraud, he may even be right about a few things, but it wont be enough and he wont be believed without amazing hard evidence - which is unlikely to be found and will be strongly contested by the Dems anyway. 

Still it is possible he will sneak a win in Arizona and come through, but would be a big surprise from here. Joe Biden a strong favourite to be the next US President for a few months. 


Lord Blagger said...

it does stink. That's the issue.

How did the Democrats lose in the other elections at the same time, but get that percentage of postal votes?

The Rep only have to one win case, and it throws the whole thing in the air.

Now Trump has broken US politics in the sense that the Rep will go after the low skilled workers. They will go after the Latino vote. They will go after the Black vote. Trump has shown them that they can win those voters over.

The Dems are wailing that these people didn't do as they were told.

The big winners are the techs. They will be protected for 4 years. The idea that the Dem can now target them, when the techs demand their pound of flesh in return is what's going to happen.

Anonymous said...

With the postal votes, there are questions, but I suspect a lot of the answers will be "covid."

I reckon most of the on-the-day votes will have been Republican, but then the majority of the ones who think covid is a mild flu, or a hoax, or nothing to worry about vote Republican.

The postal votes will be mostly Dem, as they'll be from people scared of covid, or lean to Dem because of underlying health issues and the Dems want socialised healthcare.

Freakonomics at work.

As for Arizona, Trump has spent a lot of time and effort denigrating the late McCain. A lot of proud Arizonans do not take kindly to a draft dodger doing that to someone who actually had the balls and spine to serve, so he's going to have lost some voters there who might otherwise have voted for him.

It would be richly deserved if his own bluster lost him an entire state.

Elby the Beserk said...

1. After four years of claiming it was the Rooshans wot dun it, it was entirely predictable that this would happen.

2. There is a lot of damning evidence.

2.1. I've been following Project Veritas for some months, who have been conducting secret interviews with people involved with the Dem campaign. Fraud is widespread.

2.2 There are some REALLY bad things happening. Biden suddenly clocking up an extra 200,000 votes in no time at all in Michigan and Wisconson

2.3. Evidence of more votes than registered voters in some states.

2.4 Pennsylvania deciding to allow postal votes for some days after the election. When DT was close to winning.

Sorry. American friends have told me they are almost used to electoral fraud but that this time it has been on the grand scale.

Anonymous said...

@Elby - allowing postal votes after the election is standard practice, it's how those serving military know their votes will be counted, and with covid the sheer volume means more time to count is needed. They're valid votes so long as they're datestamped before the cutoff, and should be counted.

There has been some claims of postal votes getting date-stamped before the cutoff, despite arriving afterwards, which would be fraud, but also ties into the postal vote == dem vote as they've no way of knowing who the vote was for.

It's similar in the UK too, although Gordon Brown reduced the timeframe in an attempt to reduce Tory votes and disenfranchise the military.

The Biden clock up of those votes, if it's the same I saw, it was an error corrected minutes later and Trump got a pile of votes, also in no time at all. So, if one is fraud evidence, so is the other.

And if there are more votes than registered voters, then that's a red flag that indicates fraud and a re-run needed in those districts.

Anonymous said...

As Stalin said, it's not the votes that count, it's who counts the vote. When the media have been screaming for 4 years that Trump is Literal Hitler, is it surprising there's cheating? After all, if you could have tweaked the vote in 1934...

From Theodore White's 1978 memoir In Search Of History. Note that this Dem supporter, whose "Making Of The President 19nn" series were standard texts for students of politics, kept quiet for 28 years. I guess if he'd spoken up he wouldn't have got to write the 64-72 series.

Even in the most corrupt states of the Union, one cannot steal more than one or two percent of the vote… The AP was pressing its reporters for returns, and the reporters were trying to gouge out of the Republican and Democratic machines their vote-stealing, precinct by precinct totals. … It was downstate (Republican) versus Cook County (Democratic), and the bosses, holding back totals from key precincts, were playing out their concealed cards under pressure of publicity as in a giant game of blackjack.

… the AP ticker chattered its keys once more and reported: ‘ With all downstate precincts now reported in, and only Cook County precincts unreported, Richard Nixon has surged into the lead by 3,000 votes.’

I was dismayed, for if Nixon really carried Illinois, the game was all but over. And at this point I was jabbed from dismay by the outburst of jubilation from young Dick Donahue, who yelped, ‘He’s got them! Daley made them go first! He’s still holding back — watch him play his hand now.” I was baffled, they were elated. But they knew the counting game better than I, and as if in response to Donahue’s yelp, the ticker, having stuttered along for several minutes with other results, announced: ‘With the last precincts of Cook County now in, Senator Kennedy has won a lead of 8,000 votes to carry Illinois’s 27 electoral votes.’

Later that evening, Kennedy told his friend Ben Bradlee of an early call from Daley, when all seemed in doubt. ‘With a little bit of luck and the help of a few close friends,’ Daley had assured Kennedy before the AP had pushed out the count, ‘you’re going to carry Illinois.

Elby the Beserk said...

@Anon : 11:54am

"Even in the most corrupt states of the Union, one cannot steal more than one or two percent of the vote…"

Quite often enough to swing the result...

Anonymous said...

Elby - very much so in this election.

I note the strategy is the same - wait to see how many votes you need, then miraculously find them.

E-K said...

And there is zero curiosity from our own BBC.

E-K said...

I think Trump is trying to instigate a civil war. He's not trying to claim the votes back ... he's trying to signal to his faithful that a coup has taken place; which it looks like it has. Accessories to the crime are the tech giants and MSM, hence his alleged crying wolf - I think crying too much rather than crying wolf. That's the danger of unfiltered tweeting but it was the only way to cut through and in spite of Chinese flu and in spite of an utterly biased MSM he's almost got a second term.

tolkein said...

Arizona looks good for the Donald and Wisconsin looks off the scale for fraud (see
Georgia looks v close.
So, giving Wisconsin and Arizona plus PA and Ga (and Nevada) to Biden gives the Donald victory. I think he'll sue over Michigan as well.

Elby the Beserk said...

Anonymous said...
@Elby - allowing postal votes after the election is standard practice, it's how those serving military know their votes will be counted, and with covid the sheer volume means more time to count is needed. They're valid votes so long as they're datestamped before the cutoff, and should be counted.


"The state's Supreme Court has extended the deadline of postal ballots by three days to allow thousands of late-arriving ballots to count - a decision Trump said would allow cheating. "

Elby the Beserk said...

This would be beyond blissful if it is true...

jim said...

Come off it, Donald is behaving like a spoiled brat. He knows that once out of office he faces a good kicking from his creditors and from the law.

What does not pass the smell test is his claims of electoral fraud. Republicans have had plenty of time to prepare any monitoring of electoral fraud and so far - nada. The vote counters have known all along that lawyers would be all over any disputed results and have been extra careful this time round. Even the 'cases' brought to the courts have been chucked out.

Meanwhile perceptive female friends have whispered 'I don't know how Melania stands him, once he's lost she will be off to the divorce courts'. Well they could be wrong but I reckon Donald's troubles are just beginning.

Anonymous said...

@Elby - yup. Pennsylvania extended due to expected volume of postal votes and the states refusal to allow early counting. Florida had pretty much counted all its postal votes before the November 3rd deadline, other states allow for longer. So, y'know, legal, valid votes.

It has been this way since the US Civil War, when absentee ballots were introduced, and it's down to state law as to the cut-off date for postmarks. But it is standard practice, and has been for years.

With the evidence of fraud, the only one that really set off the red alert was the Wisconsin one where votes apparently exceeded registered voters. Turns out that evidence was based on old data, in actual fact it's under the number of last registered voters.

And we've the narrowing of votes, which is apparently only a sign of fraud when it narrows for the Dems. It's narrowing for Trump in Arizona, and that apparently isn't a problem, because reasons.

So far the only evidence of someone trying to steal the election, is someone trying to stop perfectly legal and valid votes being counted. That person is Donald Trump.

Let's just be clear on this, there is actual concrete evidence of Trump trying to interfere, and none for the Democrats, mostly as he did very publicly and still managed to royally screw that up that by being too late and targeting the wrong institution.

And not understanding how the US voting system isn't evidence of fraud, it's evidence of not understanding something. And given there are 50 different state rules, along with federal rules, it's hardly surprising it's a complex topic.

@Elby you also point to a link about tracking, postal votes are barcoded for tracking. Not sure when that was introduced, but it's been there for the last several elections - some states even provide an online tracker like you would a parcel, which is quite nifty.

And on the theory of the Dems committing fraud - riddle me this, the real prize the Dems want isn't so much the Presidency, but control of the Houses and control of voting district boundaries.

They have, yet again, lost this to the Republicans who have (unsurprisingly) gerrymandered it to their benefit over the years. The Dems have lusted after that ability for a very long time to redraw districts to their benefit instead.

If they were going to use fraud to win, why would they go for the big shiny piece of cubic zirconium everyone is going "oooh" at, rather than the more valuable diamonds scattered around it that most people aren't looking at?

Anonymous said...

It seems very odd that (apparently) hundreds of thousands of Republicans have voted Biden but then for the Republicans down the ticket. My impression (admittedly from across the pond) is that Trump is more popular than any other Republican politician. In 2016 90% of registered R voters said they'd voted for him, this time 93%.

Down the ticket republicans have gained, not lost seats.

I think a deal has been done between the Dems and the NeverTrump Republicans who he so humiliated in the 2016 primaries. After all, they have what they want, a conservative SC, control of Senate and improved seats in the House, now a tiny Dem majority.

Now they can get back to the real business of Republican government, open borders, low wages, and Middle East wars, maybe with Ukrainian and Belorussian sides.

The 1960 election was stolen by Kennedy, when the US was a lot less divided than it is now. But jim and anon, carry on listening to the BBC.

A former Judge of Elections has been convicted for his role in accepting bribes to cast fraudulent ballots and certifying false voting results during the 2014, 2015, and 2016 primary elections in Philadelphia. Domenick J. Demuro, 73, of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, pleaded guilty during a sealed proceeding on March 16, 2020, before U.S. District Judge Paul S. Diamond to conspiring to deprive persons of civil rights, and using interstate facilities in aid of bribery. The court unsealed the matter today. Sentencing is scheduled for June 30, 2020.

During his guilty plea hearing, Demuro admitted that while serving as an elected municipal Judge of Elections, he accepted bribes in the form of money and other things of value in exchange for adding ballots to increase the vote totals for certain candidates on the voting machines in his jurisdiction and for certifying tallies of all the ballots, including the fraudulent ballots. Demuro further admitted that a local political consultant gave him directions and paid him money to add votes for candidates supported by the consultant, including candidates for judicial office whose campaigns actually hired the consultant, and other candidates for various federal, state and local elective offices preferred by that consultant for a variety of reasons. Demuro also admitted that the votes he added in exchange for payments by the political consultant increased the number of votes fraudulently recorded and tallied for the consultant’s clients and preferred candidates, thereby diluting the ballots cast by actual voters.

Anonymous said...

OT - I see Dominic Chappell got six years for tax evasion. The capo stays in his tax haven, the hitman goes down.

Apparently he was jailed for living high while the company collapsed. I can think of a few other companies where directors have done the same and walked away.

Anonymous said...

"The folks who firmly believe that Putin rigged the 2016 election and studiously ignore how supposedly neutral platforms like Google, Twitter, and Facebook have tilted their coverage in favor of the Democrats, now would have us believe that Democrats would not do anything to cheat."

We've been lucky in the UK - since the franchise was extended in the 1920s, I think only Ulster was big on vote fraud until mass immigration from places where it's the norm.

Teresa May will be getting even higher speaking fees now, for what turns out to have been a brilliant Brexit delaying action, perhaps the most successful she's ever been (ignoring the fact that she was elected to do the opposite).

Anonymous said...

@anon 10:42 - I love the response to actual facts, information and evidence is "keep reading the BBC." Diddums has had a bad couple of days, I get it.

And look, you have even linked to an actual story where voting fraud was proven and people convicted. You know why? Evidence.

That's how it works. Let's see actual evidence of fraud, not misunderstandings of how voting works in the US, not regurgitated tales that have already been disproven, but actual solid stuff that can be taken through the legal system and the guilty parties charged.

And you can't say that doesn't happen, because you've just proven that it does.

I'm not expecting any of that though, but I am expecting years of whining from the Trumpentum brigade about how Tangerine Jeebus had the election stolen with the square root of fuck nothing to back it up.

Sound. Fury. Nothing at all signified. It's like the Marxists, but at least they've got funkier wall coverings.

I have plenty of humble pie at the ready should I be wrong, but I suspect I'll be saving it for another day.

Anonymous said...

"Joe Biden a strong favourite to be the next US President for a few months."

Not even sure (if he 'wins') that he'll make it to January. There's a reason they kept him in the basement most of the time. He's older than Reagan was on leaving office and just as confused. Stand by for President Harris. Has anyone ever got to the top here or elsewhere via their back (or knees) before? You used to get Royal favourites like Gaveston or Alice Perrers, but did any make it to the top job?

If she succeeds that'll be two "black" presidents neither of whom were African American. She's Brahmin-Jamaican.

Thud said...

Anon, thats why Trump has lawyers, to change the anecdotal into evidence and fact....I doubt it will change things but there was mass fraud, but given your dislike of Trumpy I doubt you care.

Anonymous said...

"Trump has been crying wolf for months..."

Perhaps that is because it takes months for a fraudulent postal-vote strategic reserve on this scale to be built up, and calibrated to the necessary swing States?

Clues on that have been appearing (see Project Veritas), despite the Democrats need to keep it all concealed.

Meanwhile, the BBC keeps parroting that "there is no evidence." Not something they ever said when the Democrats alleged that the Russians had intervened on behalf of Trump in the 2016 election.

iOpener said...

The "crying wolf" analogy is wrong because the boy who cried wolf was lying and Trump has not been lying.

He has been correctly and truthfully pointing out fraud and preparations for more fraud for a long time.

Perhaps you allowed your dislike of Trump and his mannerisms to overcome good sense.

Anonymous said...

@Thud - yes I care, elections should be free and fair, but it only appears to be a problem now, despite Republicans having gone out of their way to disenfranchise people who tend to vote Democrat*, and even Republicans who may have wanted to vote for someone other than Trump on their Primary ballot, along with the aforementioned gerrymandering**.

These are things with actual evidence, being on state statute books, unlike Trump's claims?

And let us not forget, Trump is making these claims as concrete fact and providing nothing to back him up. Let us indeed see what the courts say, however given how badly his first couple have gone - hasn't his second case been dismissed on the basis it doesn't understand how elections work? This, after the first one was an absolute embarrassment of process? Who are his legal team? The Three Stooges' Dewey, Cheatem and Howe?

As for my dislike of Trump, yes, I detest him as he's a habitual liar, unable to deal with bring wrong, and a wolf in sheep's clothing when it comes to the elite. But on the other hand, I've agreed with some aspects of his policy, and he's changed my mind on some things.

I *am* highly contemptuous of Trumpentum though, coming from a libertarian background, I've been horrified as seeing many of them all swoon at Trump who is an out-and-out statist, and also several people who have banged on about States Rights for decades throwing that out the window because they've got a Great Orange Hope now. I'm used to godbotherers doing the mental contortions to justify being a shitehawk, deeply disappointed seeing libertarians and some conservatives doing the same, and I feel personally betrayed by one or two of them over in the US who I've known for a long time.

*Some of which I could be convinced on, e.g, voter ID, just so long as the state provides a free/cheap one rather than enforcing a need for a passport or driving licence which turns voting into something that then costs.

**Not like the Democrats wouldn't do the same, mind, and I'll point fingers if they ever do

Anonymous said...

"just so long as the state provides a free/cheap one rather than enforcing a need for a passport or driving licence which turns voting into something that then costs"

Immigration sceptics have been arguing for ID ("e-Verify") since forever, sadly it's one of the many open goals Trump missed (though I'm sure there would have been fierce opposition from the cheap labour lobby).Have you seen the cost of a license in swing states? $35.50 in PA, not exactly a fortune. Most expensive licenses are in liberal enclaves. And how many Americans don't have a license? They can nearly all drive.,_2018

Aren't libertarians the people who say, when someone's barred from Twitter - "build your own twitter". And when they do (like Gab), their hosting company shut them down, and it's "build your own hosts".
Then they do, and Visa blacklist the hosting company
The end game of this is "build your own SWIFT".

Anonymous said...

A guy was raising funds for a statistical analysis of the Biden vote in swing states. There are techniques for spotting man-made figures.

GoFundMe took the fundraiser down.

Anonymous said...

"They illegally spied on a campaign in a manner that would make Nixon blush. Then they used falsified information to impeach a President. That’s after they used the superdelegates to kill dead in the water Bernies campaign. There was literally no ill consequences for any of it. Why stop? Why not crank it up higher? The bureaucracy supports them wholesale."