Thursday, 23 December 2021

Mr P's bold gamble -but what is it?

Very expensive business keeping 100,000 troops on station and ready to go. Let alone prepare an area with bridging equipment, tanks and all the logistical supplies needed for a war. Sooner or late the treasury will start weeping at these costs and the men will want to go home to see their families. 

Mr Putin has been playing this game for months though, Troops positioned to both expand Crimea to attach to a Greater Russia and conquer the Donbass region with its big cities and heavy industry. More worryingly, the maskirovka is in full swing  - stories of the CIA prepping chemical weapons in Ukraine for example. 

The price would be high though, Ukraine will fight on home territory, they don't much like the Russians and the russian troops - who knows how they will do, many are just conscripts. Russian equipment is both good on paper and poor in performance. 

But the West will not defend Ukraine. Some sanctions yes, severe ones even, but Germany still need Russia's gas. Mr P is currently turning this on an off in a display of his power. How Merkel, so lauded like Obama, has left a gaping strategic wound. 

Can Europe survive without Russian gas? In the short term, no, not without power cuts which will visit the UK too. In the long term yes. Plenty in the tank of Uncle Sam that can be shipped (at a price!) to Europe in a war-footing scenario. Equally though, the yanks might let Europe squirm a bit, having told Germany not to do this for decades, they will be very keen on an 'I told you so' moment. 

For Mr P, the upside is an odd one. yes an expanded Russia but international oblivion for 20 years. Long-term, less dependency on her gas which is the only valuable product they have. Maybe he plans to sell it all to China, who are less concerned about CO2 emissions anyway. 

Maybe it is all an elaborate ruse to get Ukraine to say it will never sign up to Nato and to get Nord-Stream2 approved which will in turn impoverish Ukraine suitably. 

But the troops are there now, the stand-off has a time limit. 

42 comments:

Anonymous said...

“20 years”

Swedes, Poles, the French, Brits/Americans, Germans…..

And that’s just since 1700…

I don’t think he’s fucking around.

DJK said...

Hard to see how the Russians back down from their recent statements, without doing something dramatic. The price of invasion might be high for Mr. P, but the price of doing nothing might seem higher. If the Russians do nothing, then there will be a hostile Nato/US army at Russia's borders. We might not see it as hostile, but the Russians see it as another Grand Armee, or a potential second Barbarossa. Any price might be worth paying, if you think the alternative is another invasion from the West.

Seelby the Berk said...

I don’t think he’s fucking around either.

Trouble with Russian thinking and mentality it isn’t what the west think.

My Ukrainian friends have gone very quiet lately.
Eastern Ukrainians are very ‘Russian’ they remember the propaganda of how bad us westerners are.
I’m thinking they are increasingly worried.

Seelby the Berk said...

With regard power cuts.
Let’s hope all our core infrastructure suppliers have invested in standby diesel generators and UPS’s

I think it was this blog that touched on ‘portable’ diesel generators maybe 10 years ago (?)
‘Portable’ as in on the back of an articulated lorry in the
~150kVA three phase diesel generator range.

The installations I’ve worked on have fixed diesel generators that’ll make Greta weep.
Keep filling those fuel tanks and they work.

Don Cox said...

AlJazeera has a report of Putin's press conference.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/23/putin-talks-ukraine-covid-and-navalny-in-annual-news-conference

Don

Nick Drew said...

Here's the Graun's (rather thin) take on L'il Volodya's designs on Ukraine.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/23/vladimir-putin-russian-president-ukraine-analysis

(He seems to view Belarus as part of the old 'Rus' bloc, too - http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181 )

FWIIW, I'd say he's either concluded, or possibly even been told directly, that Xi intends to take Taiwan soon-ish, and doesn't see why he shouldn't be just as big, bold and nationalistic in the face of Biden's weakness

If I lived in Estonia / Latvia / Lithuania, I'd be nervously thumbing through my heavily dog-eared NATO manual of "An Attack On One Is An Attack On All"

(Recall my one *ahem* Great Annual Prediction Success back in '08 when I called the invasion of Georgia, in the first BTL comment here:
http://www.cityunslicker.co.uk/2007/12/2008-predictions.html )

Nick Drew said...

PS, CU is absolutely right that you can't keep a big force in the field like that indefinitely - and not just for treasury reasons. History is chock-full of lessons on that.

One of the (many) clever things we did in Gulf War One - the 1991 vintage, not Blair's time (see this blog interminably a few months ago -
http://www.cityunslicker.co.uk/search/label/saddam)
- was build up to full strength only right at the very end of the several months of the preparation period, with very few ground troops at the start (mostly air to begin with, and a lot of that comfortably on big bases or carrier-borne). There wasn't too much hanging around for the ground elements.

Seelby the Berk said...

@Don Cox

The link you’ve posted. Oh dear there is section on Covid19 by Putin
The anti vaxxing (pricks) chumps will be along soon enough.

At least Elby and Lady Lil are old and can’t actually have real guns to shoot themselves in the foot.

E-K said...

It isn't Russia that's holding us to ransom over gas - it's the green lobby and Boris Johnson and the Tories.

dearieme said...

"they don't much like the Russians": except the ones who view themselves as Russian, perhaps. Though even they might not like the close-up view of an invading army.

The West has no vital interest in Ukraine. And thanks to that old East German, Ma Merkel, Russia has Germany by the throat.

Personally I think HMG should give serious thought to leaving NATO. There might be a Gibbering Joe window of opportunity.

Wildgoose said...

I've been in favour of leaving NATO ever since the so-called "defensive" alliance attacked Serbia in an act of pure aggression.

You want to know why the Russians don't believe they would be safe from NATO forces parked on the borders of Eastern Ukraine? That's why.

And of course, the Americans in particular insist on continually poking the Russian Bear. It's difficult for a naturally paranoid State to imagine a peaceful co-existence when faced with constant anti-Russian rhetoric.

Mind you, "Irish" Jo has made his contempt for us pretty clear as well. I agree with dearieme, we should be giving serious thought to leaving NATO before we get dragged into something we want no part of.

jim said...

The French and German news does not seem too het up about Russia. A bit of US gas may draw the teeth of any threat to cut the gas supply. So it's poop or get off the pot - and it looks as if there is no real advantage to Russia. So quietly fold the tents and move away - we hope.

I suppose the interesting question is how things will pan out over the next 20 years. Energy looks like a problem and finding a use for the population another. Style of government also looks to be important, no extant style seems to have all the advantages, the key seems to be choosing the least bad.

Russia seems an enigma, possibly too big ever to thrive as a unit. Its geographical spread looks to be an advantage - or a curse. Be better off if the geography went north-south perhaps.

Merry Christmas all.

Old Git Carlisle said...

Is there any confirmation that the Ukraine supplied North Korea with missile technology?

If so let them stew in there own juice.

WOn different tack what about shale gas!!!

E-K said...

Quite, Old Git

P wouldn't have the same leverage if we'd used our own resources.

Anonymous said...

It's true - NATO attacked Serbia and encouraged/forced the removal of a historic (and historical) chunk of their territory - Kosovo, whose grateful citizens can now be seen selling the Big Issue in many a UK town centre.

Nick Drew said...

Shale gas, OGC? Give it time. It ain't going anywhere.

Watch the Germans insisting that gas must be classified "sustainable" in the EU's new "green taxonomy". They know what has to happen if they relinquish coal & lignite. Greta is in meltdown about this, but who's listening anymore?

MERRY XMAS TO ALL !

Thud said...

Comrade P can declare any sort of concession as a victory and pack up, after all who is there to dispute his claim in Moscow?

E-K said...

Nick

Greta has gone beyond puberty and is turning into an ugly bitch.

Sorted.

andrew said...

On green nuttiness saw a link that pointed out the entire german car industry is priced to have a value of 0 in 5-10 years time.
Not sure of the maths but DAI BMW VAG all yield about 5-6% and are on pers of 5-6.

The implication for me is not bankruptcy but an indication of the immense social disruption Germany is about to go through over the next decade.

That TSLA is on a per > 100 tells me someone is wrong.

I can see putin annexing more of the ukraine and the west declaiming loudly of the evils of that and then doing little other than providing a lot of 'defensive' weapons that can be used by the resistance in disputed territory

The question is : how ukrainian are the ukranians?

James Higham said...

Merry Christmas you capitalists, you. :)

Don Cox said...

Yes indeed.
A Merry Christmas and a profitable New Year to all.

Don Cox

Elby the Beserk said...

SeelbyTheberk said...
@Don Cox

The link you’ve posted. Oh dear there is section on Covid19 by Putin
The anti vaxxing (pricks) chumps will be along soon enough.

At least Elby and Lady Lil are old and can’t actually have real guns to shoot themselves in the foot.

7:01 pm
====================================

Well, I have no problem with anyone who wants to have toxic spike proteins in all their organs, just count me out.


https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/circ.144.suppl_1.10712

ARTERIOSCLEROSIS, THROMBOSIS, VASCULAR BIOLOGY
SESSION TITLE: DAMPS, INFECTION AND CARDIOVASCULAR METABOLISM
Abstract 10712: Observational Findings of PULS Cardiac Test Findings for Inflammatory Markers in Patients Receiving mRNA Vaccines
Steven R Gundry
Originally published8 Nov 2021Circulation. 2021;144:A10712
This article has an expression of concern
is corrected by
Abstract
This clinic has been using the PULS Cardiac Test (Predictive Health Diagnostics Co., Irvine, CA) a clinically utilized measurement of multiple protein biomarkers, which generates a score predicting the 5 yr risk (percentage chance) of a new Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS) called the PULS Score. The score is based on changes from the norm of multiple protein inflammatory biomarkers including IL-16, a proinflammatory cytokine, soluble Fas, an inducer of apoptosis, and Hepatocyte Growth Factor (HGF) which serves as a marker for chemotaxis of T-cells into epithelium and cardiac tissue, among other markers. Elevation above the norm increases the PULS score, while decreases below the norm lowers the PULS score. The PULS score has been measured every 3-6 months in our patient population for 8 years. Recently, with the advent of the mRNA COVID 19 vaccines (vac) by Moderna and Pfizer, we tracked the changes of the PULS score and three of the inflammatory markers it measures in all of our patients consecutively receiving these vaccines."

Also, those who are content to take experimental treatments not full trialled - feel free, be a guinea pig. But any real clinical trial needs a control group. We are that control group

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/results/NCT04368728

"Study to Describe the Safety, Tolerability, Immunogenicity, and Efficacy of RNA Vaccine Candidates Against COVID-19 in Healthy Individuals"

"No Study Results Posted on ClinicalTrials.gov for this Study"

You, sunshine, are SO stupid you signed up to be experimented on with a completely new means of destroying your immune system.

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3563

"Covid-19: Do many people have pre-existing immunity?"


BRAVO!

(None so blind as them as wot don't want to see, eh?)

And so what re the immune response paper not being pal reviewed - as is noted.

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210510/Research-suggests-Pfizer-BioNTech-COVID-19-vaccine-reprograms-innate-immune-responses.aspx

"A pre-print version of the research paper is available on the medRxiv* server. A preprint is a version of a scholarly or scientific paper that precedes formal peer review and publication in a peer-reviewed scholarly or scientific journal.
Preprints: how draft academic papers have become essential in the fight against COVID"

Someone say summat about shooting themselves in the foot?

Don Cox said...

Why do you think the spike proteins are toxic ? They will only survive for a few days at most, anyway.

The point of a vaccine is to show the immune system a harmless sample of the hostile organism, so that it recognises the real thing quickly when it comes along, and can go into action against it before it takes hold. The information is stored in the memory T cells. A vaccine trains that memory.

Do you think that a single molecule from a virus is more dangerous than a complete functioning virus ?

Don Cox

lilith said...

"Do you think that a single molecule from a virus is more dangerous than a complete functioning virus ?"

That very much depends. It should be obvious by now that you can have all the antibodies in the world and still die of Covid if your T cells are crap. You can be incapable of making antibodies and survive or swerve the virus entirely.

A jab doesn't contain "a single molecule from a virus". If you want to give me a single molecule from Covid, bring it on!


lilith said...

It isn't at all clear to me that the vaccine enhances immunity to Covid in any way that justifies blanket treatment of the entire population (without a control). Let the vulnerable take it if they so desire. I personally have at least half a dozen good reasons not to, not least a horror of Government forcing novel drugs on a population that is not at risk.

Don Cox said...

The anti-vaxxers are the control.

Don Cox

lilith said...

The vaccine sceptics are indeed the Control Don. Don't you think it strange that the sceptics are the only people arguing for a Control?

Elby the Beserk said...

"Don Cox said...
Why do you think the spike proteins are toxic ? They will only survive for a few days at most, anyway"
=====================================

Oh dear, Don. It's the spike proteins that make Covid is so horrible for the sick. They bind to various organs and
enable the virus to enter them. They are a weapon specifically designed to make you sick.

"They will only survive for a few days at most" They survive as long as they need to to damage you. For heaven's sake.

Hence the widespread clotting that is being reported as a result of the "vaccines" mimicking this. And remember, they are entirely synthetic. The Covid virus itself is yet to be isolated - the only thing we do know for sure is that humans have been fiddling with it for 20 or so years. And then we opened Pandora's box.

And yes, we are the control group. I even have the t-shirt ;-)

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02039-y

"How the coronavirus infects cells — and why Delta is so dangerous"

What is fascinating is how quickly those of us who have made a reasoned decision not to take an experimental and very novel medical treatment have been stigmatised and demonised. Even in these fine halls, the scapegoaters assemble. You must be very proud of yourselves, I guess?

Elby the Beserk said...

For Don, who thinks the spike proteins harmless... (btw, there's any number of similar reports from all over the world. None in the MSM. Indeed, were you to get all your news from the BBC, you would have NO ideas of the tsunami (for that's what we say now, innit?) of deaths and adverse reactions from the clot shots)

https://conejoguardian.org/2021/12/14/more-vc-nurses-blow-whistle-on-overwhelming-numbers-of-heart-attacks-clotting-strokes/


e has witnessed a surge in numbers of young people experiencing severe health problems after receiving Covid shots.

“We’ve been having a lot of younger people come in,” Sam says. “We’re seeing a lot of strokes, a lot of heart attacks.”

One 38-year-old-woman came in with occlusions (blockages of blood flow) in her brain.

“They [doctors] were searching for everything under the sun and documenting this in the chart, but nowhere do you see if she was vaccinated or not,” Sam says. “One thing the vaccine causes is thrombosis, clotting. Here you have a 38-year-old woman who was double-vaccinated and she’s having strokes they can’t explain. None of the doctors relates it to the vaccine. It’s garbage. It’s absolute garbage.”

Another woman, age 63, came in the day she took the Moderna Covid shot. With no previous cardiac history, she suffered a heart attack. Tests revealed her coronary arteries were clean.

“One doctor actually questioned the vaccine, but they didn’t mention it in the chart because you can’t prove it,” Sam says.

While hospitals are seeing more myocarditis, an associated side effect of the Covid shots, “Everyone wants to downplay it — ’It’s rare, it’s rare,’” Sam says. “Doctors don’t want to question it. We have these mass vaccinations happening and we’re seeing myocarditis more frequently and nobody wants to raise the red flag. When we discuss the case, they don’t even discuss it. They don’t mention it. They act like they don’t have a reason, that it’s spontaneous.”

E-K said...

Indeed. I see no point in vaccinating the young, much less children.

Vaccination does not prevent the contagion - it simply mitigates the illness.

My wife was very sick with the jab the other week. Are we supposed to endure this every two or three months for the sake of something as weak as the common cold (which kills vulnerable people too.)

Elby the Beserk said...

"On COVID vaccines: why they cannot work, and irrefutable
evidence of their causative role in deaths after vaccination"

For those who think the jabs are harmless. A lay person unread in matters medical should still be able to glean from this document why so many are being harmed by the jabs. It also explains why spike proteins are the
reason for the widespread reporting of adverse reactions*

Getting fed up with having to do research for those who a) can't be bothered & b( believe everything "authorities" tell them.

https://thewhiterose.uk/on-covid-vaccines-why-they-cannot-work-and-irrefutable-evidence-of-their-causative-role-in-deaths-after-vaccination/

*Which the PTB knew was going to happen, witness this tender... "...expected high volume of Covid-19 vaccine Adverse Drug Reaction (ADRs..."

https://ted.europa.eu/udl?uri=TED:NOTICE:506291-2020:TEXT:EN:HTML&src=0

Section II: Object

II.1)
Scope of the procurement
II.1.1)
Title:
SafetyConnect — AI

II.1.2)
Main CPV code
48000000 Software package and information systems
II.1.3)
Type of contract
Supplies

II.1.4)
Short description:
The MHRA urgently seeks an Artificial Intelligence (AI) software tool to process the expected high volume of Covid-19 vaccine Adverse Drug Reaction (ADRs) and ensure that no details from the ADRs’ reaction text are missed.

II.1.6)
Information about lots
This contract is divided into lots: no
II.1.7)
Total value of the procurement (excluding VAT)
Value excluding VAT: 1 500 000.00 GBP
II.2)
Description
II.2.2)
Additional CPV code(s)
48000000 Software package and information systems
II.2.3)

Place of performance
NUTS code: UK UNITED KINGDOM

II.2.4)
Description of the procurement:
The MHRA urgently seeks an Artificial Intelligence (AI) software tool to process the expected high volume of Covid-19 vaccine Adverse Drug Reaction (ADRs) and ensure that no details from the ADRs’ reaction text are missed.

Sobers said...

The odd thing is that all the data to show the vaccines are a bust (ie do nothing to prevent its spread, that the protective effects wane very quickly and that they cause all manner of nasty side effects, up to and including instant death) is out in the open. You don't even have to accuse the authorities of operating a cover up, they have been meticulous (particularly in the UK) in documenting and publishing the statistics. All you have to do is look at it. But of course the MSM never do, they just print ludicrous made up scenarios dreamt up by Professor Doom and Gloom and his ilk.

BlokeInBrum said...

Yep, it's true.

The chap who was instrumental in the creation of the delivery mechanism for mRNA 'vaccines', Dr. Robert Malone, has been quite vocal in condemning vaccine mandates and the mass vaccination pogram. He is especially critical of vaccinating children, who are almost wholly immune to Covid.

Yet you don't hear much about him or the criticisms he makes in the mainstream press.

There's a widely circulating Danish academic study showing the results of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccinations (2 doses) in Denmark - after 3 months the effectiveness of them against Omicron goes sharply negative.

There's also the epidemic of fit young people suddenly dropping dead from blood clots and heart attacks for no attributed reasons. You would think the MSM might want to take a look in to that.

Anonymous said...

Do all blogs have this phenomenon of threads falling into an ineviatble fug of covid? Is it like Godwin's Law?

lilith said...

I don't know Anon 8:40 but many, many blogs have an Anonymous Snarkwomble.

Elby the Beserk said...

Anonymous said...
Do all blogs have this phenomenon of threads falling into an ineviatble fug of covid? Is it like Godwin's Law?

8:40 am
===============================

Hey, it makes a change from "Global Warming..." - and as a nailed on sceptic on all matter govt promoted, I've been sitting in the firestorms that both matters have created for a long time now. Water off a duck's back.

Tho' the level of ignorance amongst even the apparently articulate and intelligent on both matters is alarming.

I gather some people not only watch, listen to and read the BBC - but worst, they believe them. Turning on the radio when I got up to hear what disaster had befallen our pathetic cricket team (the usual. Another batting collapse. Still, The Hundred was GREAT wasn't it? Or so I am told), Robinson had some nutter from the Scottish health mafia who was stating that Omicron would devastate the health system as it were March of last year.

Did Robinson interject or try to calm him down? No, he just whipped up more frenzy. I switched off else the radio would have been defenestrated.

BlokeInBrum said...

In a sane world, the Covid epidemic would be a newsworthy, but fairly unimportant story - relegated to the health section of most news outlets. Maybe with a few tips about how to get through this holiday season without spreading it to elderly relatives. Easy ways to protect yourself by taking cheap supplements like Vitamin D or Zinc. Maybe a fashion section about the latest trend in masks etc.
Perhaps with some journalistic investigation about the collusion of the American pharma industrial complex with the Chinese Communist State to develop bio-warfare pathogens.
But that's not where we're at.

Seelby the Berk said...

LOL

“ I don't know Anon 8:40 but many, many blogs have an Anonymous Snarkwomble.”

… said full name lady lil from Devon or is it Somerset ?

Actually wet myself

Seelby the Berk said...

At anon

I reckon we should have bets on which of the chumps / anti vaxxers / deniers first comments OT on the next post which could be retitled

‘last man standing’

lilith said...

Poor, incontinent, righteous Seelby. Glad to give you a giggle.

rwendland said...

Not sure this is that expensive or difficult for Russia. The satellite photos of lots of stored equipment in the MSM early this month were of a Russian training area in the Yelnya area (Pogonovo training area I think - eg 51.5005,39.1615 google maps), 300 miles from Moscow and 150-250 miles from the Ukrainian controlled territory. This seems in large part more like the cost so far of a very large training exercise using existing training areas, than a foreign adventure. Close enough to Moscow that troops can have occasional short home leave while things are still cool.

According to CSIS, U.S. European Command estimated a 100,000 Russian troop exercise there in March 2021 as well, so it doesn't even seem that much bigger now:

https://www.csis.org/analysis/unpacking-russian-troop-buildup-along-ukraines-border

Anonymous said...

"Eurasia is at peace with Eastasia. Eurasia has always been at peace with Eastasia. Oceania has always been at war with Eurasia and Eastasia..."

As Orwell did not quite predict.