Russian 'milblogging' is an interesting phenomenon of the Special Military Operation. Almost all milboggers are fervent nationalists, and some are self-evidently very well informed. Nationalism doesn't always prevent them from being critical of their own side and, since most of them have high regard for the ordinary Russian soldier, their criticism is mostly aimed at the General Staff and points north, all the way up to Putin himself in some cases, encoded or en clair. Given the epic military and geopolitical failings of Putin's Plan and its utterly crass execution (see this blog passim), they've had plenty to complain about.
Behind the glass wall, facing the cameras |
But that doesn't detract from his knowledge and insight. As a judgement from a distance, I'd also assess that he's entirely straight (within his own frame of reference) and sea-green incorruptible. And brave with it. Insofar as one can tell. He has frequently given airings to views that oppose his own, and admitted mistakes. (He also has the tremendous Russian facility for heavy-duty sarcasm: I have to believe many of his American readers would have a lot of difficulty in making out some of what he writes.) And now he's been locked up.
Why now? Good question, since Putin has put up with his trenchant critique for well over a year. Well, characters like this are always difficult to deal with. Strelkov was initially surprised by the invasion, and on the very first day presciently offered the observation that the attempted coup de main against Kyiv itself via the heli-landing at Hostomel was risky. However, he immediately suppressed his doubts in public and, in his nationalism, loyally tracked events online in as supportive a mode as he could muster. That lasted for about a month, after which he could no longer contain his disgust at how badly the invasion was being, and has subsequently been, conducted. And in ever greater and compellingly accurate technical detail - the criticisms not of an armchair general** but as one who could have done better himself, even with the inadequate forces Putin threw into the fray.
In his nationalism, Strelkov has long been deeply suspicious of Wagner, and had no time for what he called its "Verdun" strategy at Bakhmut. But it was Prigozhin's Moscow-bound flying column that tipped him over the edge: Wagner deliberately spilled Russian blood on its way north and that, for Strelkov, was the limit. Unrestrained rants against Prigozhin followed. Now obviously, Putin and Prig have come to a tense and complex modus vivendi; and it would seem that non-stop carping from sniper Strelkov is no longer acceptable.
The irony, of course, is that if they'd followed his sound military prescriptions from around mid March 2022, they'd be in a lot better shape than they are now.
I shall miss Strelkov's bracing analyses.
ND
_________________
** We had some amusing BTL contributions mocking my own rather distant armchair commentary, but the authors might like to go back and check: I got to Strelkov's conclusion - it wasn't difficult - quicker than he did, at least in public.
.
34 comments:
It'll be interesting if he pops back up, and where.
He's a resource that would be useful, but that would require the navigation of Putin's pride and ego.
Of course, post Prigozhin, it's debatable if he's still capo dei capi, or just capocrimine now, so that might not be as insurmountable as once before.
The lesson is also that if you're going to annoy Putin, get yourself an army. You'll get a bigger prison cell, indeed a veritable nation size one.
I agree with Trelkov and have (unknowingly, of course) all along. A tragic, reckless and pointless waste of young Russian lives indeed (as is the historic nature of Russia at war.)
Putin has proved to be the grade 1 nutter that we were told he was and the EU/NATO ignored all warnings that he would react if pushed hard enough. Suits the US industrial military complex down to the ground, coincidentally.
*Strelkov* Sorry.
Ukraine bothers me a bit, all looked to be going well but now Putin looks to be getting his act together for the long term and Ukraine seems unable to progress very much. Then the EU is putting in piddling amounts of mil aid, the UK has got no money and we wait and see how the US elections pan out.
My worry is that this will drag into this winter and probably winter 2025. The longer Putin is left in place the more he is be forced to adapt his disfunctional military into something resembling a functional military. The opportunity to crush him seems to be slipping away.
Jim - We get a Labour Govt next year and the Tory Extinction Level Event (their words) due, in great part, to the Putin famine and the Putin refugee crisis.
While we concentrate on the Ukrainian 'football pitch' we forget that this is a tournament being played out on many pitches and the British aren't doing very well at all.
@ E-K, "due, in great part, to the Putin famine and the Putin refugee crisis".
Thats a novel analysis. Are you arguing the Tories could have prevented this with their well-known veto on Putin's actions? And that voters blame them for not preventing it? And that it's why they are riding low in the polls? I never heard any TV voxpop or pollster even remotely suggesting that. You should have a column in the Guardian, they like anti-Tory theories.
Incidentally, though I'm sure experiences difffer widely, I came across a Ukrainian refugee crowd in a pub/restaurant recently and everyone (includes local residents) was having a fine old time. One of the Ukies was the chef. Food was great. Rather more "integration" there than with the average "refugees" arriving at these shores.
E-K - no Putin famine AFAIK, but massive inflation caused in the main by "our" response to Putin's (eventual, reluctant, he told us and told us) response to "our" 2014 coup.
"We" didn't have to blow up NS2, "we" didn't have to turn away Russian crude - which ended up being processed in India then sold back to us.
US foreign policy - to sever Europe-Russia links - has been very successful, and very bad for Europe, who are as dependent on the US as ever they were in 1946. Sad!
Anon - I know an (ethnic Russian) Ukrainian family here, thank the Lord their son was 17 when they came over. No plans to go back and get killed AFAIK, indeed the daughter is pregnant by an English guy. Their desserts are good, mother's layer cake fantastic. Can't find a recipe, it has a dozen layers or more - not honey cake.
Feel sorry for their mother, a sweet sad woman whose heart is obviously back in Kharkov - a place which IMHO will end up in Russia.
No famine here but huge Tory-threatening food price inflation - where do you think the shortages that cause this inflation are manifesting themselves in empty bellies worst ? Why - the nations that are sending us their Tory-threatening migration, of course.
Boris was front, left, forward and centre on stoking war war war and not jaw jaw jaw in Ukraine.
For this we are about to become proper Communists. Oh, the irony ! In defending democracy in Ukraine and in defeating Russia we become Communist !
And our military a mere husk of what it was and interested only in diversity and equality and political correctness.
A couple of years back ND and I exchanged on the reduction of the British forces capability to filter Special Forces troops because of a reduction in numbers. I argued that the genetic material still exists in the country but will probably only be tapped from reservists who no longer have the desired 2 to 3 tours under their belt. I fear it's worse now. Standards will be dropped as in the show Who Dare's Wins was pretty quickly.
If all the barrels used in that show were 40k then why were they numbered individually to match contestant's armbands ?
I cannot stress the harm that this war is doing our nation.
E-K - it would have been easy in the early noughties for the US to say to Russia "we don't think Ukraine in NATO is a threat to you, but we understand it's an emotive issue, especially given your history, and so we are happy to declare that it's not something we'd ever contemplate".
But... the Wolfowitz/Brzezinski doctrines said "we must permanantly detach Ukraine from Russia to prevent them ever generating power that could compete" and so it was.
https://www.docdroid.net/v0NfJDB/grand-chessboard-pdf
Pity - I loved seeing the SU-27s and Mig-29s at Fairford. The chief test pilot was killed early in the war.
EK - Boris also rewarded Brexit voters by granting 1.1 million visas a year. Sunak is IIRC even worse.
Still, at least they're not racist. Except maybe against UK natives.
2 things
1) the fact that Ukraine are up that creek where no paddle may be found seems to be sinking into organs as far removed as the Kyiv Post, the Telegraph and the WSJ/NYT. Does this presage an outbreak of realism or a call for "MOAR NATO"?
2) the drone wars seem to have gone maritime with this mornings failed attack and the bridge bang. I remember Russia did something similar to a rail bridge. If stuff develops as it did with aerial ones... drug smuggler cartels use just-submerged subs - could be interesting.
And it's good that ND and I agree on something, namely that Strelkov is a patriot who walks the walk, why he's been arrested is beyond me.
Sensible move, or huge graft opportunity for connected persons?
"The State Duma adopted a law facilitating public procurement for the SVO: For these purposes, the Ministry of Defense will be able to conclude contracts in any form when purchasing from a single supplier. This will speed up urgent small purchases for military units, eliminating paperwork and organizational red tape, and will also allow you to pay for deliveries in cash."
https://t.me/llordofwar/178977
@ Anonymous 10:49
Not sure how you work out the “massive” inflation is caused by European or U.K. responses to Russia’s invasion? Wheat prices are back to historical norms. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/wheat (see the historic 10 year view) And Natural Gas prices too pretty much back to where they were five years ago https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cxwdwz5d8gxt (see the historic 5 year view). The inflationary shock, if there was one for solely the situation in Ukraine, was unavoidable as Russia made itself an unreliable partner and suddenly sources of supply had to be re-orientated. Natural Gas transit routes via Ukraine were never going to be lacking in risk, this would have been reflected in pricing. And as has been noted here before, Natural Gas prices were already edging higher, reflecting post-COVID demand returning. So some inflationary pressures were baked in.
Not sure then how you disentangle all the various effects on inflation from Russia invading Ukraine, the post-COVID economic normalisation and, say, sanctions, to arrive at a very definitive statement that recent inflationary pressure were just caused by the latter? Do please show us your workings, if you have them.
And now, commodities have stabilised at their previous prices. So what is the incentive to return to Russia as a trading partner for these? It seems happy to weaponise these for its geopolitical aims. Since we can manage well enough without them, why bother?
"Russia made itself an unreliable partner"
No they didn't.
"and suddenly sources of supply had to be re-orientated"
No they didn't. We chose to do that.
Energy is key to our inflation, because everything uses it.
Of course there are some other forms of inflation - let a million people a year in and watch rents soar!
"commodities have stabilised at their previous prices"
Is that why prices have fallen so much?
PS afaik the natural gas route through Ukraine is still running, E. Europe still paying Russia for the gas, and Russia still paying Ukraine!
@ Anonymous 4:23 pm
So, no workings to show on what events contributed what portion of inflation, then, just opinion?
When a major Natural Gas transit route is subject to being in a conflict zone, markets for what gets transited assume there is some supply risk and price accordingly, reflecting a possibility of added scarcity. Supply doesn't have to be interrupted for prices to rise, it only has to be at risk of interruption. That's how markets work. Saying "someone" "did" "something" to cause prices to rise to reflect a risk is therefore false. It was a long-recognised phenomena of the invisible hand of market forces. If you want to replace international energy markets with something else, operating in some other way, that would have prevented this, please do let us all know here what you'd like us all to do.
If alternative, less risky, sources of supply hadn't been found (and finding them meant contracts being needed, which locks you into those new sources lest you cancel thereby incurring penalty clauses) and transit through Ukraine had been impacted, the population would -- rightly -- chastised their governments for wishfully thinking everything would just work out fine.
Finally, as I'm sure you're well aware, inflation is a lagging indicator. Inflations is falling everywhere, sometimes a lot, sometimes in economies prone to stickier inflation (like the UK) not so much, but still falling nonetheless. It's forecast to falls still further as input prices make their way though the value chain. But you knew that, didn't you?
Clive, "If alternative, less risky, sources of supply hadn't been found ... the population would -- rightly -- chastised their governments for wishfully thinking everything would just work out fine."
Yup. And note this: given the remarkable scale of the dislocation, the global gas market has responded with astonishing effectiveness (and no government direction, though plenty of government actions of greater or lesser efficacy). The gas market has cleared at all times and, though liquidity has sometimes been thin, price discovery has been continuous, accurate and meaningful. In short, a well-functioning market has efficiently allocated limited resources. (And all at a time when very many French nukes were largely in pieces on the floor being mended.) There's no suggestion this has been pain-free. Indeed, the marginal price has frequently been set by demand destruction, sometimes in Europe, sometimes in Asia.
Historical note: in the mid 1990s I was part of an OECD team that studied security of gas supply in Europe. The work concluded that with only one limited category of exceptions, every country could survive the loss of its biggest single source of gas supply for one winter. Of course, 'survive' didn't mean without dislocation, cost and other pain, as stressed above. (The exceptions were countries like Ireland with only access to one external source.) The details of 2022 are a lot different to how the world was back then, but the basic reasoning was sound. Note, "one winter".
In response to a really silly comment that high gas prices were caused by our sanctions on Putin, for a bit of proper perspective I stuck this up at Stumbling & Mumbling:
https://stumblingandmumbling.typepad.com/stumbling_and_mumbling/2023/07/inflation-a-political-problem.html#comments
(1) From their extreme covid lows, energy (and metals) prices were clearly on the move, upwards, just as soon as every nation's post-covid economic recovery programmes kicked in, starting in the Far East, Jan-Feb 2021**. Literally everyone in the know was hedging against this (or betting on it) from Feb-Mar 21 (which explains why so few energy suppliers of any substance went bust in 2022, and why so many commodities players made massive profits)
(2) This upward trend received a serious boost across the summer of 2021 (repeat, 2021), as Russia unilaterally ceased sales of non-forwarded-contracted gas into Europe (in order to force Europe into winter 21-22 with low gas inventories). That's Russia, pre-invasion, acting unilaterally, strategically, with hostile intent. Gottit?
(3) the recent 'energy crisis' dates from around Sept 21 (repeat, 2021) when this hugely significant price-trend became universally recognised. Memory failing you? Go back and look up news reports of the time.
(4) of course, Russia's (entirely uncalled for) invasion of Ukraine absolutely supercharged all this: but let's not have it framed as being caused by "our Russian sanctions". If anything, that final 2022 twist in the whole complex account should be stated as "our collective refusal to buy from an outright warmonger, even at high cost to ourselves".
___________
** when I started writing about it here
"our collective refusal to buy"
Don't remember being asked or given a vote.
"from an outright warmonger"
Serbia, Iraq, Syria, Libya... Afghanistan was maybe just acceptable if you believed bin Laden did 9/11, but as a 19thC style "butcher and bolt" expedition, not as a long term attempt to recreate Bexley Heath circa 1955.
"even at high cost to ourselves"
Thank you. But I don't recall being told that there was going to BE a high cost - to us. Russia was going to be on its economic knees in weeks, remember?
I think ND has German.
https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/wirtschaft-verantwortung/iwf-wirtschaftswachstum-in-deutschland-schlechter-als-in-russland-li.372686
"2023 forecast growth in Germany worse than that of Russia"
What kind of warmongering ally deliberately destroys a country's energy infrastructure? At least we were open about Toulon in 1940.
Don't remember being asked or given a vote ... don't recall being told that there was going to BE a high cost - to us
Well.
(a) in no country does the populace routinely get a vote on foreign policy emergencies. Once in a blue moon, Parliament does (Cameron / Syria). Even less frequently, there's sometimes a full national vote centering on broadly geopolitical issues (the "Dreadnought" election of 1910) or indeed a referendum (2016). But the days of Athenian "agora" democracy are well and truly over - and that didn't always end well, did it? (Syracuse)
(b) then you obviously weren't reading this blog in Feb/Mar 2022: we were as specific as it's possible to be that there would be a serious cost to us - and to Germany in particular. If you are looking to vent on this, I suggest that German politicians are your proper target - they didn't understand their utter dependency on Russia for gas, and thought Germany didn't even need gas anyway, and could simply switch to renewables. Such is the pernicious ignorance fostered by greenism. Had they realised, it's hard to imagine they would have hastened to penalise Russia in the precipitate way they did.
So kindly take your complaints elsewhere instead of implying this blog had any part in either ignorance or deception on the matter.
As I wrote in March 2022, Putin clearly assumed German politicians were fully conversant with their energy dependency on Russia. How fatally wrong he was. On that and of course very many other strategic matters. Dished by the greens! - how ironic.
http://www.cityunslicker.co.uk/2022/03/energy-ignorance-has-dished-putin.html
Thanks ND, I'm not implying anything* and am a great fan of the blog** (but whoever agrees with everything?).
But it's very hard to accuse Russia of warmongering when they step in (after 7 years!) to protect their kith and kin just over the border - we bombed Serbia to bits, hitting water and power from Day 1, over much, much less.
* I hope I'd say things straight out.
PS - sorry, it wasn't Toulon, it was Morocco where we attacked the French Fleet in 1940. It just amazes me that such a major attack as NS is met with ... silence... no one WANTS to know who did it. Wars have been declared over less.
** btw whatever did happen to the EMED/Atalaya share price?
O/T
I'm not well educated in science, but is this something to get excited about.
An ambient temperature/pressure conductor.
https://twitter.com/alexkaplan0/status/1684044616528453633
M.
Room temperature superconductors have been claimed a number of times by various people, and all so far have turned out to be either fraud or self-deception.
I suggest waiting until any such claims are replicated before celebrating.
Don Cox
Putin "Outright warmonger"
Well. It took him twenty years to finally have his tizzy.
Grain, fertilizer, weapons supply, gas ... war is always inflationary, it creates demand for some things and reduces the supply of others.
"Nick Drew said...
Don't remember being asked or given a vote ... don't recall being told that there was going to BE a high cost - to us
Well.
(a) in no country does the populace routinely get a vote on foreign policy emergencies. Once in a blue moon, Parliament does (Cameron / Syria). Even less frequently, there's sometimes a full national vote centering on broadly geopolitical issues (the "Dreadnought" election of 1910) or indeed a referendum (2016). But the days of Athenian "agora" democracy are well and truly over - and that didn't always end well, did it? (Syracuse)
(b) then you obviously weren't reading this blog in Feb/Mar 2022: we were as specific as it's possible to be that there would be a serious cost to us - and to Germany in particular. If you are looking to vent on this, I suggest that German politicians are your proper target - they didn't understand their utter dependency on Russia for gas, and thought Germany didn't even need gas anyway, and could simply switch to renewables. Such is the pernicious ignorance fostered by greenism. Had they realised, it's hard to imagine they would have hastened to penalise Russia in the precipitate way they did.
So kindly take your complaints elsewhere instead of implying this blog had any part in either ignorance or deception on the matter.
As I wrote in March 2022, Putin clearly assumed German politicians were fully conversant with their energy dependency on Russia. How fatally wrong he was. On that and of course very many other strategic matters. Dished by the greens! - how ironic.
http://www.cityunslicker.co.uk/2022/03/energy-ignorance-has-dished-putin.html
8:36 am"
And when Trump pointed that out to the Germans, MY! How they laughed...
Note that Europe WAS energy independent enough to resist decoupling before NS2 went pop. Now, not so much. If the US says "jump", Europe can only ask for an altitude figure.
Interesting the number of messiahs or those with messianic traits appear when talking about Ukraine and Russia.
We are all fools. We should be listening to them. It's a secret plot which if they showed you the evidence they'd have to kill you.
Seems to be a human trait whenever 'normality' is displaced.
Meanwhile the world turns. Atlas shrugs.
Must admit I can't see any Messiahs on the horizon any time soon.
But Russia's in a different place to US/China/UK. It looks as if in all three there's a state underlay/Deep State/oligarchs/what you will that represents a sort of continuity, even if that continuity's pretty crap. See the problems Trump had actually getting stuff done (the Pentagon literally lied to him about troop reductions in Syria) or the way Boris rewarded Brexit voters with 1.1 million new UK visas the year before he left. Basically neither Trump nor Brexit actually changed much. China does have its power struggles, but outward face is maintained. The dogs bark and the caravan moves on, if we're getting literary.
Russia otoh - Putin is pretty sui generis, the oligarchs wait in the wings and the succession could be an issue. How old's Medvedev?
Medvedev's not The Man.
@ Anonymous 1:26
But that's not true though, is it? There was never any natural gas distribution system capacity constraints prior to NS2 were they? The transit capacity though Ukraine was more than sufficient for continental Europe's demand. What NS2 did -- and all it did -- was to cut Ukraine out the loop as far as Germany was concerned. It merely deepened Germany's dependence on a single-source supplier. A has been remarked before, I'm not sure what you wanted anyone in the UK (or the US, for that matter) to do about that. Germany never listens to us, anyway.
As for the UK -- and most of the rest of continental Europe too -- we (and they) have highly diversified energy sources and even for natural gas, it's only Germany in a league of their own with their former dependency on Russia. Everyone else is well-hedged in terms of diversification.
So I'm not quite sure where this "Europe is dependent on the US for energy" comes from. Even for just natural gas, it (the US as a supplier) is a mid-table player at best.
Cheer up all. Go and read Boris's piece in the DM on his favourite subject - females. A delightful piece of writing - he has found his metier at last.
With Strelkov gone, others are gaining a bit more prominence, and the interesting bit is the sheer negativity - and I'm not talking about the usual Russian indulgence of moping around like they're stick in mid-90's Seattle.
It's a counterpoint to the Western media grouching over not having a shiny counteroffensive they can breathlessly report on, but one that isn't just hard work, but _looks_ hard work. It's not photogenic, and when de-mining at night, I guess anything photo-worthy would come with an obituary.
Meanwhile, the Russians in general appear to be really hankering for the Barbie movie.
Clive
It looks like America has decided whom Germany (in other words THE EU) can do business with.
Was NS2 the EU's Suez ?
OT but did CU or ND notice the Eastward swivel of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation at the Vilnius summit?
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_217320.htm
"2. We warmly welcome President Zelenskyy to the inaugural meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council. We look forward to our valuable exchanges with the Heads of State and Government of Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and the Republic of Korea..."
The North Atlantic has already subsumed the Baltic and the Black Sea, and failed in an attempt to subsume the Caspian a few years ago. Now it looks as if the Coral Sea, the Tasman Sea, and the Sea of Japan are targets. This really is stretching geography.
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