 |
| Dodds a Dud |
And thoughts here at C@W turn to the Qn 2 of the 2025 predictions Compo! But it's strictly defined, as follows:
Date of Starmer's first Cabinet reshuffle, as defined below. One bonus point for each correctly-named departure or clear-cut demotion. Two bonus points for any complete change precisely identified (named outgoer and named replacement). "Cabinet reshuffle" = two or more changes to the Cabinet roster, unforced by resignation or death. Splitting of an existing Cabinet post into two or more new positions doesn't count per se - only if accompanied by reshuffle as defined above.
So - anyone care to update their predictions?
ND
10 comments:
I hope someone - Guido perhaps - publishes a consolidated list of Two-Tier's cabinet resignations, with a summary of cause.
I suspect there are only two causes. (i) Caught out in corruption. (ii) Thinks Starmer hasn't done enough to betray the interests of the country.
OT, but that Trump, eh? Unless he's very poorly briefed, seems Ukraine ARE losing.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/28/trump-zelenskyy-shouting-match-oval-office
Zelenskyy tried to respond. Trump told him his country was in big trouble. He went on: “The problem is I’ve empowered you to be a tough guy and I don’t think you’d be a tough guy without the United States and your people are very brave. But, you’re either going to make a deal or we’re out. And if we’re out, you’ll fight it out and I don’t think it’s going to be pretty… But you’re not acting at all thankful, and that’s not a nice thing.”
This is diplomacy in a medieval monarch stylee.
I should point out that as of this morning, US spyplanes were still patrolling the Black Sea Coast* and US freight planes were still landing at Rzeszow. So there is a bit of carrot as well as the large amount of stick.
* it was a Brit one yesterday.
Zelensky will have to either resign, as Benes did in 1938 because
“he might now prove a hindrance to the developments to which our new State must adapt itself.”, or walk to Washington in a blizzard and wait in the snow for three days outside the White House.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Road_to_Canossa
"It is magnificent, but it is not war: it is madness".
A pretty disgusting sight. A good many leaders will be looking at their insurance policies and deciding they are now worth nothing. Perhaps Mr Xi is a man to do business with.
I do hope Kier and Brian are looking forward to din dins with Trump and Vance. The sight of Chateaubriand Bordelaise being eaten with fingers and swilled down with Pepsi should amuse the footpersons. The Times cartoon by Peter Brookes almost captures the feeling. With friends like that....
The big Q - where next. Perhaps a phone call 'didn't really mean it, let's kiss and make up and have these nice new missiles on us'. Oh and we don't really need all that titanium paint pigment after all.
That was a pretty unedifying scene. Zelensky didn't play it right at all - let Trump ramble, don't correct his falsehoods, chances are he'll change his mind anyway - and Trump held his temper, which lasted until Vance opened his trap, pushing Zelensky over the edge, which pushed Trump over the edge.
I've no idea if Trump wanted it it to play out that way - he has a history of showmanship after all - but it matters not in real terms.
Zelensky needs to start overtures to China, the prospect of military bases buttressing Western Europe and Black Sea naval assets ought to be enticing enough for Xi to pull in Putin's leash.
Regular diplomacy went out the door when Trump came in, you need to play it a little more like Yojimbo/Fistful of Dollars and play the warlords off one another.
I'm not keen on seeing China expand so explicitly into Europe, but for Ukraine, it makes sense in the short term.
As for predictions, unless Siddiq gets back in soonish, that one of mine is already for the birds!
"Zelensky needs to start overtures to China"
Can't see it myself, China and Russia being allies, although China in the Black Sea would certainly be something new. A Chinese naval base in Odessa would be interesting, especially when Russians pay fraternal visits.
No, Europe and UK now need to put their money and young men's bodies where their mostly female leaders mouths are. But they have no oil, and will Norway (even if they agree to it) want to empty their gas fields to keep Rheinmetall, Airbus and BAe factories busy?
"Europe and UK now need to put their money and young men's bodies where their mostly female leaders mouths are. "
Ignoring the issue that most young Western men, having been brought up in a society that has hammered into them the idea that 'women are more than the equal of men' will not easily be persuaded to be hauled off to fight while all the women are left at home, there's another little issue to consider - which young men get hauled off to fight? A significant proportion of young men weren't born here, or hold dual nationality. Do they get their call up cards or not? Because I don't see the parents of young native Brits being hauled off to fight putting up with it if Abdul gets to sit in his immigration hostel on benefits (or even gets to have a nice safe job in a munitions factory) while their son Steve is cowering in a trench in Ukraine, attempting to avoid killer drones. We aren't in 1939, when pretty much 100% of the fighting population were born and bred British citizens. Now approximately 11m people in the UK were born abroad and hold a non-UK passport. And a significant number of those born here have at least one non-UK passport holder parent and would be entitled to dual nationality. Most of whom could bugger off to somewhere not involved in the fighting if they were involved in a call up process. There no longer is the societal cohesion or the ethnic uniformity that would allow a conscription process to be accepted in the UK, especially for a war on a border over 1000 miles away.
You couldn't train them if you press-ganged 'em.
Post a Comment