Some pretty dire scenarios are easily envisaged, but it's anyone's guess now, on any geopolitical question you care to speculate on. Has global politics ever hinged on pettiness and petulance to this degree? Even remotely? "well, checks and balances ..." Really?
There is, at least, one thing we may be sure of: Xi will be determined to make his move on Taiwan before November 2028.
ND
23 comments:
Would Xi really want to make a move?
Unless it’s agreed in advance with the USA.
Putin has shown what happens when it goes wrong.
He could have lost everything.
So will Xi really risk the entire kingdom for the island?
He’s certainly better placed than Putin.
But Trump’s visibly orange, thin skin, would want wreak a terrible revenge for a Pearl Harbour on his watch.
I think the Israeli PM sent missile fitments to Argentina during the Falklands so they could use Exocets, because the Brits hanged one of his mates forty years before. Seemed to get away with it OK.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dov_Gruner
Why would Israel have missiles fittings for a missile they never possessed?
Don't know, perhaps Israel used Exocets on their planes. But Israeli specialists went to Argentina.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1379008/A-deep-rooted-hatred-British-How-Israelis-armed-junta-Falklands-conflict.html
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/falklandislands/8463934/Israel-supplied-arms-to-Argentina-during-Falklands-War.html
https://www.timesofisrael.com/uk-opens-files-on-israeli-arms-sales-to-argentina-during-falklands-war/
Sorry, it was fuel tanks to enable the planes to get into range, not exocet fittings. They also supplied air to air missiles:
"There were five flights in total from Tel Aviv to Buenos Aires via Lima, loaded with equipment such as gas masks, radar warning systems to prevent fire from enemy missiles, air to air missiles, duvet jackets and spare parts. Additional fuel tanks for fighter bombers supplied by Israel were particularly important for Argentina's war effort as they enabled pilots to fly to the Falklands and return to the Argentine mainland without stopping. Dobry discovered that Israel sent 1,500-litre tanks rather than the standard 1,300-litre models and writes that this meant the British Task Force had to move its fleet further east to prevent further bombings."
I could see Xi preparing for a move, pretty much everything but starting the fireworks display with Trump in power. Actually kicking off? Not sure, Trump wants no new wars on his watch, solve the ones already occurring to his satisfaction - not the participants - in his hunt for a Nobel Peace Prize, or at least be in a position to complain loudly about not getting one.
Hegseth looks to be slowly closing Cyber Command under the guise of peace gestures towards Russia, although the NSA looks to have said "haha, no" to their equivalent being shut down.
Trumps numbers are taking a hit too, and solidly Republican areas have been getting increasingly irate at Musk's cutting, and, in some spots, upon discovering the DOGE Meister isn't from the US. Amusingly enough, the "Free Speech Absolutist" has been unleashing the censor's scissors on some of the videos on X.
Trump isn't going to want any embarrassing midterm kickings, so he's only going to tolerate so much after the first 100 days have passed.
The 'Krasnov' thing has been entertaining too, there's no evidence backing it up but the words of a former KGB staffer, but Trump's actions hardly undermine it.
I'm more inclined to put it down to a geriatric bromance, but I guess we'll never know - it's not like the US government would ever admit to having a Russian asset in he Oval Office
US spyplanes are still doing the Black Sea Coast run though, there was one today.
Caeser - Obama got the Peace Prize pretty much on accession, I tended to assume for his melanin amount.
RAF Menwith Hill.
RAF Fylingdales.
Most likely people won’t have heard of either, nor have much notion of their unique, irreplaceable significance. They are crucial to US defence interests and simply cannot be replicated or replaced or have alternatives found. “Ye Cannae Change The Laws Of Physics” reasons (over-the-horizon radar beam limitations and azimuth requirements for Fylingdales, satellite orbits for Menwith Hill).
And these are just two, off the top of my head. Europe is festooned with similar, invaluable, vital facilities to the US.
Once all the nonsense has died down, even Trump and Vance have no choice but to appreciate who your allies are and where they are and, in respect of defence assets by the dozen, the, literally, lie of the land.
It's OK, Clive, Trump will be doing one of those DEALS with Putin, who'll promise not to launch any of his shiny new hypersonic missiles over those particular horizons.
Obvious, innit?
Kaja Kallas, calling for Western unity: “If we are not able to put enough pressure on Moscow together, how can we claim that we will be able to defeat China?”
Hmm. Diplomacy isn't what it was. Maybe no one from China was listening.
"“If we are not able to put enough pressure on Moscow together, how can we claim that we will be able to defeat China?”"
Who is this 'we' kemosabe? I get that the US can put pressure on who it likes, it still has the wherewithal to back up words with actions where it counts. What wherewithal does the EU have? Threaten to unleash the massed ranks of the immigrants? Intimidate with a Net Zero audit? Let loose the menace of the LGBTQ+ divisions?
Europe is a busted flush without the US military to back it up. Its a 6 stone weakling shouting insults from behind its 16 stone back row forward mate.
The Romans and Nero. The top 10% will carry on sucking up 'cos that's where the money is. The bottom 30% won't notice whether they are slaves or min wage workers. The middle will pay the taxes. Plus ca change.
I reckon the White House realises the meeting did not provide a 'good look' and we can see a bit of victim blaming. The comments from US media are telling, they have to be careful, the White House has dangerous animals roaming the corridors.
Long ago a chat with a military type went 'Oh we will fight for about 3 weeks then we'll have to go nuclear'. No one is going to play nuclear so long as you might get one back. Except perhaps the 'billion + countries'. ABMs? After the first fireball all radars are more or less blinded and not reliable. That series 'Yes Minister' had a good one on nuclear deterrence.
An article on “Emergent Misalignment: Narrow finetuning can produce broadly misaligned LLMs“ tells us that AI systems (and human systems) can be thrown wildly off beam by small changes in incentives. But we knew that....
Well, the US currently have a spyplane circling Kaliningrad, and another on the Black Sea beat, so it's possible that Trump is just putting on a show to make Europe remove their digit - which seems to be working if War Leader Der Starmer's conference is any sign.
Any chance this was all scripted and Starmer is in on it? Then he just has to solve the riddle of rapidly increasing defence spending AND making people better off. Good luck with that.
Good to see Kemi Badenough getting the lessons of the Cuban Crisis 100% base over apex.
"In the face of implacable US determination, the Russians backed down."
And the US removed their missiles from Turkey, which is what made Russia put theirs in Cuba.
There is one leader inside Downing Street with a great big army, seen recent fighting, tough opponent.
But Erdogan's price would almost certainly be EU membership.
Such statesmanship. Such foresight from The Russians. To force the USA to remove the obsolete missiles I no longer required.
The Politburo got rid of Khrushchev.
On 14 October 1964, the Presidium and the Central Committee voted to accept Khrushchev's "voluntary" request to retire for reasons of "advanced age and ill health."
Adventurism is dangerous folly , Komrades!
Someone should have told Putin.
"it still has the wherewithal to back up words with actions where it counts." Doubtful: try reading the US blog "Navy Matters". It gets easier and easier to imagine Xi giving the USN a tremendous beating.
That alone might explain why Trump is trying to withdraw from military and naval commitments elsewhere. Mind you, even if the USN's ships and aircraft functioned its clearly been built for the wrong war i.e. for a "blue water" war in the Pacific. Midway revisited.
But China will fight a naval war largely on her continental shelf. You cannae sink a country, Cap'n. Land-based missiles will win.
@anon 8:56 - I doubt you'll find many who thought Obama was a deserving recipient, so I'm not sure what your point is?
That, as Obama got it for being first Black President, Trump should get it for being the first (and second) President to be more than 78% fake tan by body weight?
Point is that you reckon Trump is on the lookout for one.
(Point 2 is that Swedish liberals love the idea of a black leader more perhaps than the reality. Trump is in many ways 'blacker' than Obama.)
@anon 1:29 - I don't "reckon" Trump is on lookout for one, Trump has frequently stated how he deserves one, you don't moan about how you deserve a prize if you're not interested in getting one.
It would be entirely to Trump's credit if he managed to preserve peace during his time in office and yet didn't win the Nobel Peace Prize. That has been forever tarnished by the award to Bomber Obama.
Whilst I'm at it;
"Xi will be determined to make his move on Taiwan before November 2028."
Eh? Assume Trump & Co's broad attitude is transactional, then as soon as additional foundries a la TSMC Washington & Arizona are online, or Intel's model shift takes off, the the USA no longer gives a rats arse about Taiwan - their historical red lines are elsewhere.
Xi (or his successor) only has to wait until those facilities are up and running. Then they can just walk onto the beaches of Formosa, pausing to smell the plum blossom on the way.
He's only 71.
(TSMC has foundries in Singapore and Japan as well, for what it's worth.)
Given Trump's petty vindictiveness, and following the 'great man' theory of history (which posits that history is made by a small number of 'great' men), it would not be at all surprising if Ukraine did not already have an assassin or two in the US targeting him.
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