Resignations ahoy!

Dodds a Dud

As Anneliese Dodds heads for the backbenches in high dudgeon, Starmer's thoughts must be ones of pleasure that he curtailed her short outing as Shadow Chancellor so decisively before the GE.

And thoughts here at C@W turn to the Qn 2 of the 2025 predictions Compo!  But it's strictly defined, as follows: 

Date of Starmer's first Cabinet reshuffle, as defined below. One bonus point for each correctly-named departure or clear-cut demotion. Two bonus points for any complete change precisely identified (named outgoer and named replacement). "Cabinet reshuffle" = two or more changes to the Cabinet roster, unforced by resignation or death. Splitting of an existing Cabinet post into two or more new positions doesn't count per se - only if accompanied by reshuffle as defined above.

So - anyone care to update their predictions?

ND

Friday Fun - "We're alrigght!"

 So with the vaccine first phase roll out going very well and the lockdown working from a cases perspective, we have seen two weeks now in the UK of rapidly falling cases and hospitalisations. 

Inevitably we are back to splits in the cabinet about when and how to ease back to real life. It seems to me this might happen a lot more quickly than we think, having all been battered with bad news for so long, hope is hard to create.

What do you think will happen?

A) end of lockdown in early March, into national tier 2, end of that by June. then next winter occasional tiering in areas with low vaccine uptake or new variants. International travel dependent on other countries getting their vaccine act together. 

B) Tier 4 by end of march, slow reduction in tier levels over the summer, with most restaurants and shops open by May or June. Maybe even sports events over the summer. 

C) Lockdown until end of April to really lower cases and allow vaccine her immunity effect to kick-in. Tier 3 over the summer and then staying there until year end and the whole population vaccinated. 

Which will it be, the sun is our I am plumping for A...

Extra points if you can name the accent in my head of the phrase, together with the date and place. 

Friday Fun - Viral Market Turmoil

How low will the markets go?

In what proved to be a dead cat bounce for a couple of days, it seemed that Global markets had rallied off the lows. I spoke to a few city types who assured me the Hedge funds had closed their shorts and gone long.

But then today has proved another tough day with the FTSE down 3.5% to a new low for the year and Global markets all in risk-off mode?

So for the weekend, where are the markets going to go. Oil is down below $50 a barrel and staying there, will this itself cause a bounce as that has a deflationary effect across the whole world? Will that save airlines (I doubt it)? Will the market carry on witht he FTSE headed toward 5000 and the Dow 20,000?

Or is this all overdone and the bounce back be strong next week?

Interesting times ahead.

End of week: Predictions Results

Last Sunday I posted my thoughts on what I though would be a pretty chaotic week in the world economy; got that bit right. below are last week's predictions and in highlights the actual results:

- RBS. Barclays & Lloyds/HBOS will announce taking of the Governments' shilling before the markets open tomorrow. Despite the huge knock to dividends, this will temporarily support their share prices. The CEO of RBS will resign.

RBS has held up, LLoyds HBOS not so well, they may come back a bit if the Government allows Dividend payments within 5 years. Fred the Shred did resign. Prediction Accuracy - 50%

2- The markets will continue their downward trend as more bad news seeps out into reality. Perhaps not with the vigour of this past week and with a bear rally for a day or two, but downwards nonetheless. Lehmans fall-out will be main bad news to financials sector.

It was a nice Bear Rally, but unless the markets are up over 5% (currently 3%) by the end of Friday then my prediction was spot on. Lehmans fall out will be next week, post 21/10. Prediction accuracy - 90%

3- After the failure of the Sarkozy talks today (prediction), the Euro will weaken further against the dollar and pound. Serious questions will begin to be asked about its viability.

The talks succeeded by the standards of European agreements, but the Euro has fallen heavily. Prediction accuracy: 50%

4- Commodity sell off will continue, as will gold and silver to some extent as margin calls for big traders continue to force liquidation of assets. Maybe some respite by Friday, Oil will end the week under $70 unless OPEC cut production.

Commodities wrecked, oil at $66 a barrel. Gold ans Silver routed too. Prediction Accuracy: 100%

5- Questions will being to be asked of the strength of some UK Insurers as they are battered by huge markdowns to their assets; similar with large pension fund companies like BA and BT.

Insurers are down a lot this week indeed, RSA and Aviva more than the market average, L&G too. This was the front page story on the Telegraph today. BA and BT held up not so badly after last weeks decimation, but are still nearly off hugely. BA is 50% down on a MONTH ago and is heavily shorted.
Prediction Accuracy 100%

Overall Success - 78%. Do you agree?

5 Predictions for the week ahead.

Last Sunday I wrote that the week ahead would be the most decisive of the decade for the world economy. Sadly I proved to be spot on. Stocks markets melted down in a way unknown for 20 years and more like 30 years.

We have been left in a mess and it seems there is little that can be done now that the patient is in severe cardiac arrest (that patient being the credit markets).

However, for the week ahead its seems to me as though some things will happen, others in the comments please and then we can see who was right next Sunday assuming we have power for our computers....:

1- RBS. Barclays & Lloyds/BOS will announce taking of the Governments' shilling before the markets open tomorrow. Despite the huge knock to dividends, this will temporarily support their share prices. The CEO of RBS will resign.

2- The markets will continue their downward trend as more bad news seeps out into reality. Perhaps not with the vigour of this past week and with a bear rally for a day or two, but downwards nonetheless. Lehmans fall-out will be main bad news to financials sector.

3- After the failure of the Sarkozy talks today (prediction), the Euro will weaken further against the dollar and pound. Serious questions will begin to be asked about its viability.

4- Commodity sell off will continue, as will gold and silver to some extent as margin calls for big traders continue to force liquidation of assets. Maybe some respite by Friday, Oil will end the week under $70 unless OPEC cut production.

5- Questions will being to be asked of the strength of some UK Insurers as they are battered by huge markdowns to their assets; similar with large pension fund companies like BA and BT.

So all in all, looks like a great week ahead. Hope I am wrong. My hunch is sentiment will turn around the end of October

Zoom to Doom; follow-up

Some comments yesterday thought I exaggerated the plight of several airlines, see this news today re my key concern, Al Italia:

The airline's perilous position was put into perspective by Roberto Colaninno, appointed to take charge of the new entity that emerges from the restructuring.

"No one can buy Alitalia in the state it's in," he told La Repubblica newspaper.

"With all respect, I am not Merlin the magician. The business is toast. It doesn't exist any more. There's nothing left."

7 reasons to make the most of 2007

2007 is set to be a good year in economic terms, so make the most of it:

1 - UK growth is currently ticking along at a nicely overclocked 3%. As with all over-clocked goods, this means it will burn out faster and in all likelihood in a more catastrophic manner!

2 - The crap weather has really affected a lot of of our retail companies. Homebase had a 10% sale this weekend past and there will be more to come. Make the most of being able to do cheap DIY whilst the weather is bad. Statistically, the weather is very unlikely to be so bad next summer.

3 - Chances are there will be no election this year. This is a good thing as (for me!) the opposition are in disarray. Sadly, next year if the disarray continues then next year there will be an election and the Government will win by a country mile! This year I can at least travel in hope.

4 - The Stock market and investments are up hugely. Over 20% so far, if you have invested in these at all you will be well ahead of where you were (Up 50% if you have investor in Chinese or South American markets). Next year, is not promising to be such a good year, with the global economy overheating and higher interest rates slowing it down.

5 - Our generous Government has left you more money to spend. In 2008, with Government debt at high levels, taxes are almost certain to go up. At the very least a higher Oil price will mean more tax paid through petrol duty. A raid on our small pleasures such as drinking is on the cards too. More probably, there will be big extra taxes 'to save' the environment (and Government finances...)

6 - Next year the England football team, even if they qualify for Euro 2008, will be again boring the pants off half the population and making the other half scream and shout in frustration. Worse, Germany are resurgent as a national team and will probably win the tournament!

7 - Finally, from our more certain brethren, the world may well end next year, so time to make the most if it now