Darren Jones: a different kettle of fish

In the right hands, the plumb job in Government is Chief Secretary to the Treasury.  Seat in Cabinet.  Just below the radar, but enormous power.  In charge of government spending - everybody needs to be your friend.   The best springboard imaginable: the partial list below is revealing[1].

And now, CSttT Darren Jones has sprung into another such job: CSttPM, no less, invented specifically for him, it seems (and to help dig the Starmermobile out of the rut in which its wheels are spinning idly as the engine races).  Yes - Darren, the sharp, confident, facetious smartarse, is in charge of more than just spending now.  Let's see what he does with it:  because such jobs and such people are in the type of pivotal position that can see significant results along several axes, personal as well as political and practical.

In business, the term once used was "troubleshooter" - a person appointed to get something Big & Awkward done, often away from the corporate centre.  Julius Caesar is perhaps the greatest example in history; there's Wellington and Slim in British military annals (and many other besides, of course).  Douglas MacArthur: the list could go on.  Right now, Putin has Sergei Kiriyenko[2].  It's happened to me three times in my career: being given plenipotentiary powers in the hope I could fix some unexpected, pressing difficulty.

The thing is: you're never sure how things will turn out - with the task itself, and what the Man does afterwards.  Caesar came back in triumph from Gaul - and immediately mounted a successful coup.  MacArthur had a coup in mind himself.  Wellington was a bit more constitutionally correct when he had the whole of Europe at his feet: he still became PM.  But Slim just quietly slipped away[3].

The troubleshooter appointment will always be given to someone believed to be capable - that's the whole point - but often also to someone viewed as maverick, which can give rise to the problematic aspect of what happens after the hoped-for success; the unwanted consequence of the Faustian pact.  And if he wasn't (identifiably) a maverick before the assignment, well, lots of power and a free hand, sometimes exercised way out over the horizon ... it can turn a man's head.  Capable, and hitherto reliable, doesn't always mean predictable.

We shall follow Mr Jones' progress with interest.

ND

____________________

[1] Past CSttT's include: James Callaghan, Geoffrey Howe, Michael Portillo, Alistair Darling, Danny Alexander, Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak.  (Oh yes, and Chris Philp, whose ambitious little heart nearly exploded at the prospect he had it made, when he briefly held the job.)

[2]  If you haven't heard of him, well most people haven't.  Aye, there's the wonder of the thing - as Sherlock Holmes said in related circumstances

[3]  Zhukov, of course, was effectively banished to Siberia!  but the CP has always been paranoid about military leaders: when you need 'em, you really need 'em.  But afterwards ...  

Danny Alexanders desperate fuel gambit

So typical of a failing minister - th fuel gambit. Whenever a nice, populist and patently untrue statement is demanded, fuel prices are right up there.

It is the mark of the unthinking, publicity seeking MP to roll out this old chesnut as soon as they notice the price of oil going down. Extensive research today has revealed, exclusively to C@W, that no minister in history has ever come out to note that petrol prices are low and should go up to keep up with the market.

61% of the price is petrol is Duty - Petrol taxes and VAT. So given crude oil has fallen $30 over the last few months, which is about 30%, you would only rationally expect to see a fee through of 18% in terms of a real price impact.

DECC handily keeps the stats, so we can see what has actually happened. Brent oil has hovered for most of the year around $103 to $108, with one spike up to $115 when ISIS really kicked off. The is has dropped down to $82 today.

UK retail fuel prices matched this, at around staying between 128p and 130p for most of the year. The big dive in Brent pricing occurred in September and since then the petrol price has dropped 6p per litre, down to 122p average today. Of course, this equates, accounting for duty staying the same, to around a 10% drop.

Perhaps Danny Alexander is right and there is a 8% price gap here - petrol should around 2-3p cheaper. Of course, plain market mechanics explain this, crude oil is not petrol, it needs to be bought, shipped, cracked and distributed. This all takes around 2 months. We should be seeing further price drops in the next 2-3 weeks as the supply chain catches up. Perhaps another 2p before Christmas depending on whether the market stabilises.

Of course, Danny Alexander is a Lib Dem, famous for their election leaflets where they stand next to fixed potholes in the roads with their thumbs up, as if somehow this was their efforts on behalf of the electorate. The same is true of this, Mr Alexander knows full well prices will fall and no doubt before Christmas will make an announcement about how wise the petrol retailers were to obey his orders on this.

Shame he can't lose his safe seat at the election, eh?