Wow, we have copped Interesting Times, right in the solar plexus. Given that these days, everyone operates under the slogan never let a good crisis go to waste, there's a lot of manoeuvering in prospect. And lucky old Alex Salmond, eh? And lucky old Labour Party (EHRC report).
Now then, the Left: and first to Xi, the ultimate leftie. He's probably thinking he's ridden this one out, and taken the opportunity to ramp up universal, highly-granular state micro-control into the bargain - so a rather good bargain it may seem, to him. As we wrote in Feb, mass outbreaks elsewhere may take the heat off him good and proper. Now all he has to do is promote the "US biological warfare" meme in his spare time.
Now to our own miserable Left. Obviously they are itching to go Full Hostile against Boris' handling of the thing, and of course they have the luxury of making free, cowardly sniping attacks, thinly disguised as innocent questions etc. They have form, bigtime. In WW2 they sniped at the National (coalition) government mercilessly: Churchill survived several ultra-close votes. At the start of the war, of course, the far left opposed it altogether, on Uncle Joe's orders, as a capitalist war against his ally, that nice Herr Hitler. And at the height of the Battle of Britain (as Londoners of my father's generation never forgot) the Liverpool dockers were on strike. Oh, the luxury of opposition.
And then of course there was the relentless work of the Labour Party to advance their strategic cause, triumphing in 1945 while the war on Japan was still being waged. Don't all the Labour hopefuls dream of playing Attlee to BoJo's Churchill? (Though they wouldn't want to push the analogy too far.)
Trouble is, notwithstanding the free hits the Left can make with their peashooters, their opponent Boris-Cummings seems to be sticking to the rather compelling advice of his impressive and highly-regarded scientific advisers. Experts! So all the predictable Polly Toynbees and the silly Simon Jenkins have to hold back a bit (just a bit), because what do they know? And because the government's sages advise differently to the foreigners (and who on earth would want Christine Lagarde running their banking?) ... oh, all manner of puzzles for a lefty to grapple with. (Even Aaron Bastani is a teeny bit inclined to be impressed by the government's actions. And what are the Euro-maniacs to say? "Extend the transition period" (© Lisa Nandy 2020) is a pretty feeble battle-cry from a desperate politician. (Where are Starmer and Wrong-Daily in all this, BTW?)
And: what do I know? Except that there's an acid test coming soon. Perhaps the most interesting political development is the would-be Red Guard of Momentum supposedly mobilising its private army of 100,000 to Do Good in their communities. This tries to tap into the strand of altruism, love and goodwill (sic) that definitely is to be found within the nastier rantings of the youthful 2017-vintage Corbyite left. (Seriously, it really is in there, in all the bile.) Now my observation is that, however honourable this sentiment, it doesn't typically stretch to the traditional kinds of Salvation by Good Works like actually rolling up sleeves and becoming a decent, hardworking local councillor. But who knows? The Chinese CP gained power by many years of slogging away at local level, solving ordinary people's pressing practical problems. Oh, and adroit military tactics too.
Interesting Times, eh? Keep safe, everyone.
ND
UPDATE: Kier Stamer has duly broken cover with this pious and platitudinous pile. Précis: I want to be Attlee ...
Showing posts with label Emperor Xi. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Emperor Xi. Show all posts
Tuesday, 17 March 2020
Thursday, 13 February 2020
China: an Update
So, continuing our watching brief through the lens of the virus, and with the same caveats as before, how are things panning out?
Badly for China, I'd say. Early gushing approbation from the WHO worthies has subsided just a bit, notwithstanding the Chinese Ambassador to the Court of St James feeling able to harangue us for our insolent ingratitude (you can easily imagine the tone they hope to be able to employ a few years down the road whenever the fancy takes them ... or perhaps that's hoped). And they've definitely achieved promulgation of a meme that says any aspersions are racist - a meme that finds receptive carriers on the left, of course.
On the other hand.
The Chinese people are evidently getting restless, as well they might. It didn't take Peter Mandelson to advise Xi to keep his head down (though he probably did, with invoice in the post), but Xi will struggle to avoid opprobrium. Notable is this fine, brave essay which will probably cost the author dearly. Less eloquent people in their millions will probably be thinking parallel thoughts; and "when fury overcomes fear..." well, who knows? There have been rumblings about other disasters in the past, but perhaps this is the Big One. It will be if it triggers a serious economic downturn coupled with a drying-up of trade - the very thing the CP fears most. (What price a favourable trade deal soon, eh?)
There's another strand to this: the reaction in Hong Kong. When I was last there, a couple of years ago, I was a bit surprised to hear strident admonitions over the tannoy in various public places: "Use your handkerchief when you spit!", and "Do not urinate in the street!". I was told these are occasioned by the reprehensible habits of "foreigners", by which is meant mainland Chinese. Increased tension - from an already heightened level - is only to be expected.
So we watch and wait and hope for various developments that might, in the long run, be for the greater good. It has to be said, though, any week now we may get the answers to the dread questions being whispered nervously: why no news of the virus from the sub-continent? And why none from Africa? But we all think we know, really. And that may truly take the heat off Xi altogether.
ND
Badly for China, I'd say. Early gushing approbation from the WHO worthies has subsided just a bit, notwithstanding the Chinese Ambassador to the Court of St James feeling able to harangue us for our insolent ingratitude (you can easily imagine the tone they hope to be able to employ a few years down the road whenever the fancy takes them ... or perhaps that's hoped). And they've definitely achieved promulgation of a meme that says any aspersions are racist - a meme that finds receptive carriers on the left, of course.
On the other hand.
The Chinese people are evidently getting restless, as well they might. It didn't take Peter Mandelson to advise Xi to keep his head down (though he probably did, with invoice in the post), but Xi will struggle to avoid opprobrium. Notable is this fine, brave essay which will probably cost the author dearly. Less eloquent people in their millions will probably be thinking parallel thoughts; and "when fury overcomes fear..." well, who knows? There have been rumblings about other disasters in the past, but perhaps this is the Big One. It will be if it triggers a serious economic downturn coupled with a drying-up of trade - the very thing the CP fears most. (What price a favourable trade deal soon, eh?)
There's another strand to this: the reaction in Hong Kong. When I was last there, a couple of years ago, I was a bit surprised to hear strident admonitions over the tannoy in various public places: "Use your handkerchief when you spit!", and "Do not urinate in the street!". I was told these are occasioned by the reprehensible habits of "foreigners", by which is meant mainland Chinese. Increased tension - from an already heightened level - is only to be expected.
So we watch and wait and hope for various developments that might, in the long run, be for the greater good. It has to be said, though, any week now we may get the answers to the dread questions being whispered nervously: why no news of the virus from the sub-continent? And why none from Africa? But we all think we know, really. And that may truly take the heat off Xi altogether.
ND
Sunday, 26 January 2020
China: What Else Will the Virus Bring?
This is not to make light of the new coronavirus outbreak, which (we must suppose) could be the death of us all. It is, after all, pretty much exactly the scenario painted by those who write about how pandemics are much more likely to do for mankind than any other phenomenon you might hypothecate, in our world of careless hygiene and careless freedom of movement.
However, as is my wont I am following it with interest as yet another window on the ways of mysterious Cathay under the Xi regime. Many commentators have lauded the (relative) openness with which the Chinese have made information available on the current outbreak, in stark contrast with the SARS episode. Of course their idea of what impresses people - mostly, their own people, I suppose - is a little quirky by our standards: those pictures of earthmoving kit, working 100 to the hectare, on "a new hospital to be built in 10 days", are "impressive" in the way that 10,000 drummers were at the start of the 2008 Olympics. And it was a little two-edgey to hear the expert roped in by the Beeb, saying that it was a good job the outbreak happened in China, because "they can do remarkable things" - i.e. they are a dictatorship.
Xi doesn't seem to mind ordinary Chinese people being interviewd in the street about the outbreak, and they seem to say, quite spontaneously, things he'd be gratified by: "China is a very strong country, we can fix this" etc. We needn't doubt that's what they'd naturally want to say, and want to think.
Still, I can't help thinking ... isn't this just another small step along the road to "westernising" Chinese thinking? The idea - dinned into so many instinctively dictatorial western CEOs - that openness is its own reward, tht the cover-up is infinitely worse than the original cock-up, that honesty in the face of potential embarrassment is a sign of strength raher than weakness; that if you suppress the truth, the rumours get seriously out of hand, etc etc etc. And that eventually, when you take these small progressive steps and multiply them by 1.3 billion, with the further multiplier effect of social media ... And, not all of Chinese public reaction will be quite so congenial to Xi.
But I've been wrong many times on this, notably over the 2008 Olympics which I (and many others) felt would inevitably force upon China a step-change towards liberality. Well, there wasn't much sign of that. And one could float a couple of contra-indications.
Firstly, perhaps (after a putative success on the part of the Chinese authorities in getting on top of the outbreak) it'll be spun as a triumph for the dictatorial, controlling ways of Chinese government. See, telling people what to do for the best, and making them do it instantaneously, via habits of unquestioning obedience and trust in a wise government, is the way to solve 21st C problems ...
Secondly, take a look at the CiF BTL comments on the Grauniad piece cited earlier, reacting to articles on how "wet markets" for meat are to blame. The trolls (state-sponsored? freelance?) are out attacking any idea that China has to change its ways: e.g. this, from a commenter imaginatively calling themselves "ID9634782"
ND
However, as is my wont I am following it with interest as yet another window on the ways of mysterious Cathay under the Xi regime. Many commentators have lauded the (relative) openness with which the Chinese have made information available on the current outbreak, in stark contrast with the SARS episode. Of course their idea of what impresses people - mostly, their own people, I suppose - is a little quirky by our standards: those pictures of earthmoving kit, working 100 to the hectare, on "a new hospital to be built in 10 days", are "impressive" in the way that 10,000 drummers were at the start of the 2008 Olympics. And it was a little two-edgey to hear the expert roped in by the Beeb, saying that it was a good job the outbreak happened in China, because "they can do remarkable things" - i.e. they are a dictatorship.
Xi doesn't seem to mind ordinary Chinese people being interviewd in the street about the outbreak, and they seem to say, quite spontaneously, things he'd be gratified by: "China is a very strong country, we can fix this" etc. We needn't doubt that's what they'd naturally want to say, and want to think.
Still, I can't help thinking ... isn't this just another small step along the road to "westernising" Chinese thinking? The idea - dinned into so many instinctively dictatorial western CEOs - that openness is its own reward, tht the cover-up is infinitely worse than the original cock-up, that honesty in the face of potential embarrassment is a sign of strength raher than weakness; that if you suppress the truth, the rumours get seriously out of hand, etc etc etc. And that eventually, when you take these small progressive steps and multiply them by 1.3 billion, with the further multiplier effect of social media ... And, not all of Chinese public reaction will be quite so congenial to Xi.
But I've been wrong many times on this, notably over the 2008 Olympics which I (and many others) felt would inevitably force upon China a step-change towards liberality. Well, there wasn't much sign of that. And one could float a couple of contra-indications.
Firstly, perhaps (after a putative success on the part of the Chinese authorities in getting on top of the outbreak) it'll be spun as a triumph for the dictatorial, controlling ways of Chinese government. See, telling people what to do for the best, and making them do it instantaneously, via habits of unquestioning obedience and trust in a wise government, is the way to solve 21st C problems ...
Secondly, take a look at the CiF BTL comments on the Grauniad piece cited earlier, reacting to articles on how "wet markets" for meat are to blame. The trolls (state-sponsored? freelance?) are out attacking any idea that China has to change its ways: e.g. this, from a commenter imaginatively calling themselves "ID9634782"
"Guardian articles that cover the spread of the virus in China carry a racist undertone and as expected bring out a whole lot of racists crawling out of the woodwork. But in this case the racists are mostly from the so-called enlightened left who demands the Chinese people to change their living habits to suit their world view... how arrogant some commenters are to demand the closure of wet markets, which is an essential fixture of Asian cultures. Because your taste bud is used to the stinky smell of the frozen cold meat, it does not mean that Chinese people have to do the same."Old habits die very hard. And not just the culinary habits.
ND
Thursday, 5 April 2018
The trade war that won't happen
Let's start with what Trump'w National Economic Advisor is saying today:
"Trump is really the first president to fight back and to put a shot across the bow, stealing intellectual property rights, technology transfers, high barriers, investment limitations, high tariffs – this stuff really is not just unfair, it’s unlawful. It’s outside the boundaries of the WTO. Every country in the world knows this.
Every analyst knows this is the case. Somebody’s got to deal with it. President Trump is going to deal with it. There’s no trade war here. What you’ve got is the early stages of a process which will include tariffs, comments on the tariffs, then ultimate decisions and negotiations. There’s already backchannel talks going on. So look, I understand the stock market’s anxiety. I get that. But on the other hand, don’t over react. We’ll see how this works out.
My view Stu, look, you know I’m a growth guy, I’m a Reagan supply side growth guy. I think that at the end of this whole process, that at the end of the rainbow, there’s a pot of gold. And if you open up that pot, you will see better economic growth, more trading going on, improved wages for both sides.
Anytime you lower barriers, anytime you lower barriers, and that’s the key, the president will say this, lower barriers is the key, don’t raise the barriers. Anytime you do that, it’s good for growth. It’s good for American growth and American workers, it’s good for China’s growth, it’s good for the rest of the world’s growth.”
When you read the contest you can see that Trump is, as the private deal maker he is, just raising the game and not going through the usual channels of the WTO etc.
It is good to recall that the US has won 16/16 claims against China in the WTO and a fat lot of good it did as its consumer manufacturing base was hollowed out.
By way of return, I note that China is being very cautious with its retaliatory tariffs. One sector targeted is Soy Beans, but China imports so much Soy Bean that really, the Tariff's are unlikely to reduce demand and will instead just add to the US tax income. China needs raw materials more than the US needs cheap TV's. Of course, if China targeted iphones then it would be a real threat, as we have seen of late, the millenials can get very voiceferous and excited about access to social media!
So, as is a pattern, the crazed Trump might achieve some of his ends by taking this route. I compare and contrast to Obama, who hand-wringed and talked his way to achieving so little. It is really hard after a year of Trump not to think he is a far better President at getting stuff done. Of course, his tone and associations are dreadful, but his actions do deliver results. This area will be one to watch, albeit the Chinese play a much longer game, much better, as there are no pesky elections to worry about for Emperor Xi.
"Trump is really the first president to fight back and to put a shot across the bow, stealing intellectual property rights, technology transfers, high barriers, investment limitations, high tariffs – this stuff really is not just unfair, it’s unlawful. It’s outside the boundaries of the WTO. Every country in the world knows this.
Every analyst knows this is the case. Somebody’s got to deal with it. President Trump is going to deal with it. There’s no trade war here. What you’ve got is the early stages of a process which will include tariffs, comments on the tariffs, then ultimate decisions and negotiations. There’s already backchannel talks going on. So look, I understand the stock market’s anxiety. I get that. But on the other hand, don’t over react. We’ll see how this works out.
My view Stu, look, you know I’m a growth guy, I’m a Reagan supply side growth guy. I think that at the end of this whole process, that at the end of the rainbow, there’s a pot of gold. And if you open up that pot, you will see better economic growth, more trading going on, improved wages for both sides.
Anytime you lower barriers, anytime you lower barriers, and that’s the key, the president will say this, lower barriers is the key, don’t raise the barriers. Anytime you do that, it’s good for growth. It’s good for American growth and American workers, it’s good for China’s growth, it’s good for the rest of the world’s growth.”
When you read the contest you can see that Trump is, as the private deal maker he is, just raising the game and not going through the usual channels of the WTO etc.
It is good to recall that the US has won 16/16 claims against China in the WTO and a fat lot of good it did as its consumer manufacturing base was hollowed out.
By way of return, I note that China is being very cautious with its retaliatory tariffs. One sector targeted is Soy Beans, but China imports so much Soy Bean that really, the Tariff's are unlikely to reduce demand and will instead just add to the US tax income. China needs raw materials more than the US needs cheap TV's. Of course, if China targeted iphones then it would be a real threat, as we have seen of late, the millenials can get very voiceferous and excited about access to social media!
So, as is a pattern, the crazed Trump might achieve some of his ends by taking this route. I compare and contrast to Obama, who hand-wringed and talked his way to achieving so little. It is really hard after a year of Trump not to think he is a far better President at getting stuff done. Of course, his tone and associations are dreadful, but his actions do deliver results. This area will be one to watch, albeit the Chinese play a much longer game, much better, as there are no pesky elections to worry about for Emperor Xi.
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