Showing posts with label Euro Fudge. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Euro Fudge. Show all posts

Monday, 18 June 2012

Eurogeddon goes on - grexit postponed?

Europe's never-ending supply of tin cans
Probably the worst result possible in the Greek election. A narrow and unconvincing win by the pro-bailout parties - with the crazies like Syriza and New Dawn Nazi's getting ever more percentages of the vote.

Perhaps they will get a Government that agrees to follow the austerity route, but the dynamic of the Greece economic collapse means that bail-out is just going to be followed by needs for another bailout. An 10 year internal devaluation is not a plausible or realistic scenario.

What we have got is another decent effort at can kicking - lustfully jumped on by all the Euro elites as some kind of salvation. However, Spain is not sorted, nor Portugal, nor Italy  - so none of the PIGS then. They have been PIGS for a long-time.

Of course, there is still a chance that the a Government can't be formed and we go around the houses again and have new elections, so the whole dispiriting enigma can continue for a few more weeks and months at least.

Now to the G20 and let's see what non-event communique they can come up with later tonight and tomorrow...

Monday, 11 June 2012

A House Divided will fall

Back from Spain, where the tourist-y parts that I was in seemed quite normal and there was little sign of angst on the streets. However, these parts are no doubt not he bits that are suffering from 25 percent unemployment. What you can see is the half-finished flats and buildings wasting away on the edges of most urban areas - much like Ireland is too. Not that surprising since both of their economies followed the same policies.

However, the new Europe plan to save Spain is yet another bandage that raises as many questions as it answers. Firstly, as only loans rather than payments, this in many ways increases substantially the debt profile of Spain. Hardly something that is going to enamour it to international investors.

Furthermore, with the recent Bankia disaster in Spain - where a 5 billion bailout became 23 billion in a week - is 100 billion euros really enough. Or is it, again a staple of euro-fudge - enough for a plaster but not for a cure.

Then we get to the state of the other PIIGS. Spain has a better deal with no EU Troika oversight than any of Ireland, Portugal or Greece. The unfairness of this situation will not be allowed to rest by desperate populist politicians who want to see easy answers and blame all problems on foreigners. This action to help Spain may well end up helping Syriza in Greece, as it can claim better terms can be had from the EU. Sinn Fein will take up the baton in Ireland too with wearisome predictability.

Again, we see the European House divided, not just the PIIGS but Finland, as usual is decrying any use of bailout monies. This position overall is clearly untenable, either Countries want a single currency or they do not.

A momentous week awaits again, lets see what it brings.