Euroland updates

One interesting side-effect of Brexit has been the sharp drop in interest in the actual runnings of the EU. Now that the #FBPE crowd are all around, there can be no criticism of 'the project' to do so is to undermine everything.


And on the Brexiteers side, having sort of won the vote, the focus on just how rubbish aspects of the EU are has fallen away - sadly in favour of infighting and mass navel gazing.


Two current issues demand some attention. The first is economic, as we approach the top of the cycle (sadly for much of Europe as EU members have stagnated for over a decade, shame), members need to get their act together. Italy is the key concern - it has a debt to GDP ration of 130% and increasing. The new populist Government is trying tax cuts to remedy the austerity which has not worked for them for 10 years. The jury is out as to whether it will work, but abandoning the policy chosen by the Bundesbank EU Central bank is not going down well. There are real threats of fines as well as much hand-wringing. Longer-term, France owns a third of Italy's debt - should Italy go the way of Greece we will have 2011 Euro run part two, run harder!


Then there is the result of the EU elections - without going into the huge detail here is an excellent article on Politico.


My main takeaways from that are the EU is entirely made up of smoke-filled rooms and driven by the whimsy of Merkel and Macron - but only at a distance. The likely EU President of Guy Verhofstadt should be enough to even make Remainers take a sharp breath - the guy is a maniacal integrationst zealot. The democratic will of the EU - increasing the share of anti-EU parties in Parliament only to see the most pro-integration President ever get elected in the back room deals - seems to be a winding river indeed.


Remaining will be such fun!

The Great Migration resumes, will the EU sit and watch?

Just as the EU was getting all excited about besting the UK, reality is intervening once more to show its utter failure as an institution.


It is all great fun for the remainers and liberal media to have a jolly good laugh at the recent election victors and to praise the idiotic socialists. they are really enjoying their summer, never in my lifetime has a losing side been so happy with the world.


Reality in this case, is the arrival of economic migrants from Africa into Europe, now primarily via Italy - aided and abetted by 'friendly' NGO's who don't recognise borders etc in their utopian dreams.

So far this year, Italy has received double the amount of migrants that it did last year. Whilst Greece is still under pressure, really this all falls on Italy.


Of course, there is not much the EU can do. Eastern European countries are rightly refusing to take on the migrants in order to protect their culture. Merkel's 2015 statements on wanting to take them all in Germany are no longer so popular, plus she has an election to fight in a few months.


So Italy is left to confront the humanitarian disaster alone, Italy with its already high youth unemployment and sclerotic economy.


Much harder solutions are needed to stem the flow and close the door. There are over one billion people in Africa and the majority live in poverty, they can't all come to Europe en masse without also destroying the European states.


But of course, the EU is led by socialists and Marxists, obsessed with racism and intent on fixing the world's ills. In addition, they are bound by getting agreement and funds from the EU countries who are not co-operating. It is a very tough situation for the EU to handle - one which really exposes its weaknesses as a non-state actor.

Italy continues Populist trend

Whatever you think, Bepe Grillo and his Cinque Stella movement are utterly nuts.


They are in origination closer to the Monster Raving Loony Party than UKIP.


With success, they have moved to have some actual policies which are suitably anti-elitist. Leave the Euro etc. All in good order really. Even better, the EU approach of appointing PM's from Berlin and Brussels has been proven a failure, hopefully this pathetic experiment will not be re-tried for the sake of the poor countries subjected to it.


Italy itself remains ungovernable, split into regions and hampered by the populace happily ignoring nasty things likes rules, regulations and taxes (makes it a great Country, I love visiting!).


For the UK, the May Brexit plan is perhaps working out. Fillon or Le Pen, Grillo or Berlusconi, the people in charge of the EU will be markedly more friendly to the UK next year. Merkel will be more isolated - though looking at her history this won't bother her much.


Meanwhile, still trying to find the most leveraged way to short these Italian banks....