The Robin Day trophy presentation ceremony.

Winner of the Robin Day Question Time trophy is

BOTOGOL

Who managed to score consistently in what was a very long and arduous competition.
Top marks
Contact Mr Unslicker with your address and your prize will be speeding to you.

Congratulations to everyone. This is a gruelling competition and I'm always amazed so many routinely take the time and exercise the memory to take part. Well done to you all.

Team event next time perhaps?

Final standings

Botogol - 41

Measured - 39

BQ - 38
Appointmetotheboard - 38
Budgie 38

Nick Drew - 37.5
Hatfield Girl - 37
Dick the Prick -36½
Philipa - 36.5

Hopper - 35
Mark Wadsworth - 35
Timbo614 - 34½
Sebastian Weetabix - 32
Malcolm Tucker - 31½
Miss S-J -31

GSD - 29½
Hovis - 29
CU - 29
Miss CD - 28½
Andrew - 20½
Jan - 19

Sean -9.5
Woman on a raft - 8
Electro-Kevin - 4

Anon {1} -3½
Alex - 1½

In the meantime, best wishes to Botogol for his victory, Measured for a very, very close second place.
And the 3 way tie for the bronze. BQ. Appointmetotheboard. Budgie.

Goodnight!

The Question Time Cup: World final

David Dimbleby is joined in Stoke-on-Trent by Claire Perry, Tristram Hunt, Constance Briscoe, Lord Simon Wolfson and Mehdi Hasan

Dash/ dash - looks like a Typical tory girl, backs the usual nannying campaigns, Labour hot prospect and BBCs goto guy for revisionist history. Riots apologist, Business exec {Next} and Labour's version of Dr Goebbels, except Mehdi isn't quite as impartial as Josef was. {He's a good writer though. I often read his nonsensical stuff.Its quite entertaining on many levels}

Final Round. 2 point lead Botogol is looking good for the title. But as we saw ... even the great Man Utd/City can trip up.

Leaderboard as of
1/12/12
The Bot still looks a certainty.

Botogol - 39
Measured - 37

BQ - 36


Appointmetotheboard - 35½
Budgie 35.5


Nick Drew - 34.5

Dick the Prick -34
Hatfield Girl - 34
Philipa - 33.5
Hopper - 33
Mark Wadsworth - 32.5
Timbo614 - 32
Sebastian Weetabix - 30

Miss S-J -30
Hovis - 29
Malcolm Tucker - 29½
Miss CD - 27
GSD - 27
CU - 27
Jan - 19
Andrew - 17½

Sean -9.5
Woman on a raft - 8

Electro-Kevin - 4
Anon {1} -3½
Alex - 1½
James Higham -2 {you'll get the hang of it one day JH}

The Pain of the Euro

Day 542 of the Euro Crisis and the leaders of Europe are meeting today with statements such as 'everything has to be done to save the euro" (From the President Baroso no less). However, the chance of a meaningful deal is less clear. Germany and France are determined to press through with their wishes - but these are entirely self-interested.





The German-French plan is based on the following key provisions:

- the European Commission to have the power to impose penalties for nations that run excessive budget deficits

- all 17 eurozone nations should amend their national legislation to require balanced budgets

- the eurozone countries to have common corporation and financial transaction taxes

- any future bailouts would not require private investors to absorb part of the costs, as happened in the Greece case"

Translated this means:

- Germany will not allow anyone else to invest in their economy or try and alleviate economic difficulties in any other way than domestic austerity
- see above point, multiply by 2
- Ireland and other countries trying to grow through either competitive tax rates or in financial services can go hang - All tax rates will be aligned with Germany and France to help their economies.
- German and French banks are very weak and are not able to suffer any more haircuts, therefore we want these outlawed.


Not a recipe for success so far, where is the discussion of assitance to the Countires on the brink of insolvency?

Trading Update: the Precious Metals Strategy

Well since CU mentioned it, *ahem*, it is indeed a fact that the PM strategy has worked out OK.

As updated a while back, silver trading on a fairly active basis (by my sluggish standards) has yielded a tad over 40% - which is obviously sub-optimal but I failed to sell at the April peak. I've been flat since August, so there it stays. The issue with this book has been the grotesque VaR I was carrying whenever long. Boy, that's an ugly market: don't ever be away from your desk.

The gold is up just a tad over 30%, for zero activity and a very much lower (though by no means insignificant) VaR, depending on how you factor in the powerful multi-year (upward) drift. That's why the long stays on - and of course the valuation is MTM, with potential for an update by year-end.

Since all of this is considered (by me) a hedge against the other awful stuff away from the Drew trading-floor (e.g. the pension, for starters), I may end up needing every penny ... still, a few glasses to be raised when the C@W annual staff party convenes!

ND

Britons Uncaring and Thatcherite, says BBC

Nice coverage of a new report out today by the BBC.

The report notes how much society has changed in recent years, with people moving towards self-reliance and a realisation that the State is not going to support them. Plus a realisation that State interference has skewed the benefits system away from people wanting to work.

Not much controversial there, but hey, this is the BBC reporting so the article instead focus' on how people don't want to pay for more schoolz 'n Ospitals. How they are uncaring about the 'poor' and worst of all that they are now more Thatcherite than the 1980's - the ultimate sin in any socialists eyes.

Sigh, just goes to show what 13 years of Socialist Government can do to the nation - push them to the right substantially...what next, campaigns against taxes on watching television and the end of  Western Civilisation?

Trading Update 2012 - Head in Hands epiphany

Sometimes in life we make big mistakes, this year in trading terms, for the first time in 3, I have managed to get every single call and every single trade wrong. I would have not previously thought it was possible to get every single one of over 50 trades wrong, but I have indeed managed it.

Far too much risk in my portfolio tied in with a very unlucky streak of results has done for me. Now looking at a portfolio at 55% down and having to raid it for funds too, so yuck.

In order of magnitude of bad calls:

CAZA - Bought in far to high on hopes of an big oil hit in the USA. A large drilling programme for 2011 has netted about 1000 barrels of oil per day rather than the 10-20k hoped for. In a harsh market the shar enow trades below its cash levels. 80% loss, little chance of clawing back to 50% in 2012. At least the company still has cash.

XEL (Xcite) - After a stunning 2010, a disastrous 2012. Poor handling of PR and finance requirements has left he company floundering 80% off it annual highs. This after a major North Sea oil discovery. All my losses are profits only so at least that is something, but with little news flow the shareprice keeps falling. perhaps back to the 50p where I bought in in 2009. Big lesson in selling more at the highs here.

EMED - Still awaiting permitting after 3 years. 30% down on the year, but at least with good hopes of major progress next year, albeit with a still high risk of not getting the permits in time.

XTR (Xtract) - Not so bad, still down about 30% on the year, but at least I sold at a large profit when the share went up to 5p and not the 2p it currently is. Actually, with good prospects for drilling in the North Sea 2012 could be a better year.

AST (Ascent) - The weirdest share of the year, found the largest onshore tight gas field in Europe - but it took a while to get results and the share price collapsed in the meantime from 7p to 2p. Even with the company making news it has recovered only to 3p. Bizarre one, again all shares here free as I have sold out at different points.

and one good call (but no trades so does not count as I just hold from last year)...

GKP (GKP) - Flat on the year, billions of barrels of oil in Kurdistan. Needs political resolution in Iraq that has not been forthcoming for 2 years. But the huge amount of oil underlines the price - as soon as the Iraqi politicians get an agreement, of which there appear to be signs of this happening at long last, the company will be taken out - probably at about £3 versus the current £1.80. So one of my major investments at least is in the blue.

I think Nick Drew's precious metals strategy has been somewhat more successful, so I owe him a beer on our annual bet....

RBS: Still Shocking After All These Years

Now here's a thing. Jeff Skilling (Enron) is doing 24 years, with a $45 million fine, for the crime of making misleading statements about the company's activities and financial well-being.

And did you watch the Beeb programme on RBS tonight ? (if not, it's worth it - unless you lost a packet on the bastards and you value your TV screen.) We've known it all for years, of course, but the culpable stupidity is still quite a shocker.
The film relies heavily on actual recordings of shareholder meetings, analyst calls etc, so we can all form our own views. Just how many of those softly-spoken senior Scottish banking types made misleading statements that you heard ? On sub-prime, ABN-Amro ... right up until the crash, and then some - condemned out of their own mouths.

Just sayin' ...

ND

Santa Rally week thanks to UK PMI

Here we go, UK PMI for the service sector was 52.1 for the November, up from 50.1 last time and way above consensus. Now normally I am not too over-excited by the monthly numbers as they are quite often wrong and only best for giving trends. However, with manufacturing shrinking and doom and gloom everywhere this is some good news.

And more importantly, if you are a fund manager sitting in Europe you are sat on some hefty losses for the year. You need to beat the benchmark, even if that benchmark is -10%. This is hard to do in a falling market so in December we always see Santa Rally's ( and there they go in the picture, the fund managers' off to work in the City at 6.45 this morning)

Better news to is that Merkel and Sarkozy are going to talk all week long, who knows whether this is going to achieve anything, but a whole week of talking will have traders thinking a solution is going to be arrived at.

This week, events aside, is going to be quite a decent rally in the markets as they get in the Christmas Spirit.

Osborne Just Can't Help Himself

Heaven knows, I have no time for Chris Huhne. And it certainly isn't unwelcome that he's been worsted on energy policy by George Osborne increasingly of late: we've been predicting this from the start, and following it blow-by-blow since the beginning of this year.

But Osborne just can't restrain his childish, student-politician ways. We've all read how, on becoming Shadow Chancellor, he sent nasty little notes to Tory backbenchers of the David Davis camp, assuring them their careers were over. This side of his character is written all over his smirk, and it needed to be reformed permanently no later than the day he took over the Treasury.

There is nothing clever about baiting Huhne publicly when you are Chancellor of the Exchequer (- leave that to C@W). Quite the reverse: knowing full-well that the greening of the Tory party was a significant part of the absolutely necessary de-toxification programme (ask Hague, IDS, Howard), the trick is to unpick the green nonsenses with as much finesse as possible. That shouldn't be difficult in the current economic climate - for a politician of Osborne's supposedly masterful strategic and tactical skills.

But no: he wants to do it with a flourish - in the same week that Cameron is putting his name to the latest (daft) Carbon Plan. Is it supposed to win him the support of Tory backbenchers for the great leadership showdown against BoJo in, err, many years from now ? Or can he just not help himself ? There's a reason rugby players are warned not to swallow-dive as they cross the line.

The Huhnite agenda can be neutralised quietly and with finesse. The risks of doing this noisily and with blunt instruments are manifold: (a) it is a massive distraction, and a source of governmental inefficiency - what is the point of allowing Huhne's plans to go ahead and then subsidising heavy industry to compensate ? (b) it forces Cameron to address an obvious rhetorical contradiction instead of quietly getting on with re-directing the green-policy supertanker, as he had in fact been doing: who knows which way he will jump if Clegg forces him to choose explicitly ? (c) it gives Huhne eventually the opportunity to stomp off, on his own terms, to lead a green-Lib faction to highly disruptive effect, just when the early Lib malcontents (Kennedy, Ashdown, Hughes) have been brought onside; (d) it provides a focus for some heartfelt, cohesive (if incoherent), wide-spectrum opposition that could be a lot more telling than anything the self-serving public sector unions or unwashed occupationists could ever achieve.

Osborne, there is too much at stake for this: you arrogant, juvenile idiot.

ND

Market Research.

Updated

Capitalists At Work market research.
Where do you stand?

Where do you stand on?
1} Public sector pensions
A} They are barely adequate
B} They are decent, but then they need to be to make up for their poorer wages
C} They are far too generous. They must be brought into line with the private sector

This was pretty unanimous and one of the most open questions asked. 88% felt that a PS pension cut was in order. 0% felt they weren't adequate. A bit worrying for Mr Prentis.
For us at C@W it indicates a strong private sector readership, but we knew that already.

2} Defence Spending
A} Its far too low for all the commitments the military has.
B} It needs to be cut in line with other government departments.
C} Its a complete waste of money. Scrap Trident and the the carriers and halve it now.

An even split. 41% for cut in line and 41% for its too low. The too low indicates an increase is needed. But defence has been the most wasteful of the departments. Carriers, Nimrods, Typhoons, SA-80s, all being scrapped or going unsold in the wider world. The non-flying Nimrod MRA4 cost at least three £3 billion The US sells its M16A2 main infantry automatic rifle to 95 different countries, including 15 Nato ones. The SA80 is sold to Jamaica.
However, many feel the military needs more cash.

3} Unemployment Benefits.
A} Unemployment benefit needs to be increased to be adequate to live on.
B} Benefit should be paid for a fixed period only, say two years. Then it is reduced.
C} You've got 12 weeks to find a job or starve.

64% go for option B. Currently JSA ends after 6 months. It then becomes income based. If you have a home or savings, you might get nothing. Its a very poor system. The question implies two years is plenty, and if after that time you haven't found something in your field, its time for a complete change.
But quite a generous response for the babbling blues?

4}Coalition government
A} It seems to be working quite well
B} Well..its better than Brown
C} I never thought I'd support Labour again but ...

Another firm decision.68% say Better than Brown. That is something I feel. When Cameron goes to Nice or Strasbourg I never expect him to get off the plane with one black and one brown shoe or his tie tucked into his top pocket like a handkerchief. With Gordon it was always likely the airline steps would be too short and he'd have to jump down 6 feet or when the heads of the G-20 all trooped back in from a photo shoot on the steps he'd somehow be left locked outside trying to find the bell to be let back in.

5}Europe
A} We have to go along with any bailouts, if we don't we'll be sunk.
B} We should do our limited best to help the Euro, without making too many commitments
C} Not one more farthing should be sent across the channel

50-50 for limited help and no help. The euro heads are hoping for the traders Christmas like never before. This summer, for the first time in memory, that didn't help. The stock markets sold in May and went away and....it got a lot worse.

6}Cameron
A} He's doing well in very difficult circumstances.
B} He's not as effective as I'd hoped. But compared to Miliband he's a giant of a politician
C} You're seriously asking me about that 'Call me Dave', hoody hugging, Green faced, windmill tilting, u-turning, Euro loving, liberal coward Cameron?

11% doing well -52% OK and 35% he's a traitor. Pretty much the same as the last YOUGOV.

7}Economic action
A} The government should not cut spending, but instead have a mini, targeted stimulus, to get the economy moving
B} There isn't any money. The government has no choice but to do what its doing.
C} Cut more. Including taxes.

88% for more cuts including taxes. Is that really plan B? A cut in income tax? Better yet N.I. There are a few schemes but they're typical new labour soundbite plans that look impressive but actually effect only a few hundred people. IF the government won its pension battle AND its end to national pay deals within the public sector there could be a big reduction in future expenditure, so allowing for future cuts. Osborne MUST have something ready for 2014/15.

8}Energy
A} Green energy is the future. Its madness to cut investment and jobs in solar energy now.
B} We must reduce our carbon emissions. But we must do so slowly, so as not to damage the economy or drive up energy prices.
C} Global warming is a scam. Even if it isn't what's the point when China builds a coal power station a week?

65% think its a waste or worse. 35% that it needs to be reduced sensibly. No one fancied a green energy future.

9}Banks
A} The banks need to face much,much higher taxation and bonuses must be capped.
B} Banks need to be forced to hold more reserves and the retail split from the investment in some way.
C} Finance is the only large profit industry we have. It would be insane to destroy it because a few get super wealthy.

No takers for a Tobin tax. Ken Livingstone was going on about it again today. How much will it raise? No one knew. He also felt no bank would leave London but if any did it would be to New York, not Europe, so it wouldn't matter much. Please don't be mayor-please don't be mayor. Please don't be mayor-please don't be mayor.

10} Media
A} British media, Daily Mail, Sun, Sky and BBC are right wing and they have too much influence on the nation.
B} British TV and investigative journalism is the best in the world. Do we really want a US style hysterical, partisan media?
C} British media, Daily Mirror, The Guardian, Channel 4 and BBC are left wing and they have too much influence on the nation.

The left leaning media got the most votes but best in the world also took 29%. A number also thought the broadcast/print media irrelevant. Well..not yet. But on the Simpsons when they introduced a character from The New York Post Nelson Munce said "Ha-ha! Your medium is dying."

Thanks everyone for taking the time to fill all that in.

Fiscal Union

Frau Merkel has again been on the airwaves today claiming fiscal Union for the Eurozone is now on the agenda. Well, I wish the wedding well.

Many of us have taken on a fiscal union and few have found that it works quite how you think it will at the start. Often there are two jobs for a starters, then this declines to one, then there are the kids to look after and in no time at all one party to the Union is paying for 5 mouths to feed on a single income - happiness and bliss emotionally but financially crippling. This is before anyone gets sick...

However, the same is likely to apply to the European Union. At the moment, with the world teetering on the edge of a depression of unknown proportions, any idea which solves the Sovereign Debt Crisis is a good one. Perhaps the Germans are finally coming to terms with the gravity of the situation now that it is rumoured that it is allegedly Deutsche Bank who came close to failing on Monday. The populacee may now be bounced into this marriage - but like all Fiscal Unions, the happiness of the big day can drift.

Will the Fiscal Union make it to the 7 year itch?

Question Time Competition

A late post today due to a real capitalist workload on the go at the moment for all of us. I have two ringers in the audience tonight who I have primed with Questions so maybe, for once, I may win!

The rules as usual - Guess the 4 or 5 Questions that David Dimbleby will pick to most annoy the politicians and z list celebrities on stage with him. Then fume on Twitter as you guess incorrectly...

CU's Guesses:

- What should the private sector workers pay for more money for Public sector workers when their own pay is being cut?
- Should the Eurozone be broken up?
- Jeremy Clarkson - how long until he is sacked?
- What should the Government be doing to get Britain growing again?

over to you....

Leaderboard as of
1/12/12
The Bot still looks a certainty.

Botogol - 39

BQ - 36
Measured - 37

Appointmetotheboard - 35½
Budgie 35.5


Nick Drew - 34.5

Dick the Prick -34
Hatfield Girl - 34
Philipa - 33.5
Hopper - 33
Mark Wadsworth - 32.5
Timbo614 - 32
Sebastian Weetabix - 30

Miss S-J -30
Hovis - 29
Malcolm Tucker - 29½
Miss CD - 27
GSD - 27
CU - 27
Jan - 19
Andrew - 17½

Sean -9.5
Woman on a raft - 8

Electro-Kevin - 4
Anon {1} -3½
Alex - 1½
James Higham -2 {you'll get the hang of it one day JH}

Paul Mason can't wait for the end of Capitalism

Marxist economist Paul Mason is the economics correspondent for BBC Newsnight. Now it is not a shock to find that BBC thinks a marxist economist is an appropriate balance for a mainstream news show. Even when h is publishing a new book egging on a global marxist revolution against capitalism.

However is ranty blog yesterday reaches new depths -'A Turning Point In British History.'

In it he claims that the Tories plan A is dead and that expansionary contraction won't work. He comes pretty close to glee at this point and then revels in saying nothing else is going to work either, really. Labour and Tories are toast. We live in extreme times, but for the supposedly intellectual BBC newsnight site this is a new low. Allowing a reporter to get on their own hobbyhorse of marxist revolution.

Not only that but much of his analysis is wrong anyway. We will never know if the Tory Plan A would have worked because the Euro Crisis has utterly de-railed their plans and in May 2010 we did not know that Germans were planning a new offensive to conquer Europe via economic warfare. Lo it has come to pass and times change.

Also Mr Mason has his own view on what we should do - hardly impartial having berated the Government for the whole post:

"The alternatives to this? Raise your economic potential through investment: in machines, research and better skilled people; re-orientate to different export markets; and disincentivise the importation of low-skilled operations. I.e. become a high-skill, high productivity economy oriented to the world, not Europe."

Note his lovely phrase of low skilled operations instead of importing low-skilled workers (which would mean the same thing but would of course be racist and right wing). Also his lovely view is that if we just invest more then everything will be OK - rather missing the point that the time to do this was in 1998 not in 2011 when we are already bust. So, in the end, he wants magic fairy money to come and save everyone just like every other socialist.


I used to really like newsnight but can't abide it in difficult economic times when instead of sober debate they decide to have a running commentary by a marxist willing the markets on to collapse and the end of the Western world, its pathetic. He makes Robert Peston look like a Genius by comparison.