Saturday, 13 September 2025

Fisking Peter Mandelson

In a hastily arranged, self-serving interview just a day before the axe fell on Mandelson, he delivered what I called the other day his masterclass in the communication arts for which he is famed.  Too late, obviously: but look at the clever ways his mind was working, in the attempt to restore the rapidly worsening position.  Recall the context: he had already answered once on the subject, on that occasion simply saying he regretted having ever met Epstein.  Early last week, however, he knew he'd shortly be confronted with a good deal more to answer for, see below.  He just had to attempt to get ahead of it, to prime the audience with a pre-emptive range of exculpatory framings designed to head off what he knew was coming, and give Starmer a few handy words to use / lines-to-take (which Sir Kier duly did at PMQs).

The analysis is in 'fisk' format: the bold text is the transcript of Mandy's answers to some fairly obvious interview questions.  I make only the slightest reference to his body-language: an expert on that could have a field day.  Watch it for yourself.


"It was over 20 years ago …
         ... much, much too long ago to count for anything now.

"I find [my words from back then] very embarrassing to see and to read, but as you say, they were written before he was indicted.          and you obviously agree with me, it was simply ages ago.

"But I just feel two things now.  One is, I feel a profound sense of tremendous sense, a profound sense of sympathy for those people, those women, who suffered, as a result of his behaviour and his illegal, criminal activities;      Clearly - see below, several times - M has selected ‘tremendous’ and ‘profound’ from the BS lexicon.  And sympathy for women, oh yes, he’s on the side of the angels alright.  ... He was a criminal, you know – we’re plainly all victims here.  Sympathy for the women!  

"… and secondly, I regret very very deeply indeed carrying on that association with him for far longer than I should have done … oh, I don’t know, it was a matter of years after I met him …     M knows – see towards the end of the interview – that this can’t be contained to “20 years ago”, so he’s making a big, upfront thing of “regrettably continuing the association”.  Association?  A conveniently abstract, thin, technical way of framing their relationship.  Actually, we know it was “best pal in all the world”, to whom M was giving advice even after E had been convicted.      

"… and I regret very much that I fell for his lies; I fell, and accepted assurances that he had given me about his indictment, his original, criminal case in Florida, like very many people I took at face value what he said.    ... Oh yes, I’m a victim alright – and just one among a big crowd, too.  We all believed him.  None of us rumbled him.  Nobody could have known.  None of us.  It’s all of us in the same boat.  

"With hindsight, with fresh information, years later we realized that we had been wrong to believe him – he’s a charismatic, criminal liar, we now see, and I regret very much indeed;      ... Yes, it was wholly impossible for us – us, I tell you, plural, lots of us - to have known or even have suspected at the time.  Oh, how our wrongdoing haunts us, our wrongly believing!

"I felt it like a – like an albatross around my neck since his death in 2018 or 2019, whenever it was.     ... see, I don’t even follow these things very closely.  And it’s been awful for me, awful, I tell you.

"I feel, I feel a tremendous sense of regret, not only that I met him in the first place...     Regret at ever meeting him was what M had already placed on record some while ago.  So now he has to go even further, in order to be seen recognizing clearly that he needs to confess to even more, errr, regrets!

"… but that I continued the association, and I took at face value the lies that he fed me and many others.    ... yes, I regret “continuing the association”, that thin and technical matter.  Oh, and I regret believing that stuff, as any reasonable person would have done, and indeed did.

[M now shaking off a suggestion of ‘informal, back-scratching, introducing people’]  "It was not a business relationship … He operated in a financial and business way, way, way above my level.    ... way, way above.  He was essentially out of sight, beyond my ken.  Nobody at my humble level was ever in the know about, well, anything, really.

"He actually was always saying, “would you like to see so-and-so, I’ve got this friend, I’m having this dinner, would you like to come, alright, he was a prolific social networker and a political networker, that is true;     ... just such a helpful chap, he could arrange whatever you wanted … oh no, I didn’t mean it like that. Errr, just such a helpful chap: how could I not believe him, or think anything bad of him?

"... but I would just want to say this to you, er, Harry,    ... you don’t mind me letting the whole world that you and I are friends, do you Harry?   And that I’m a down-to-earth, easy-going, ordinary, relatable, pleasant chap?

"… during all the time I was an associate of his, I never saw the wrongdoing; I never saw any evidence of criminal activity.  I never sought, and he didn’t offer any introductions to women in the way that allegedly he did for others – perhaps it's because I am a gay man, you know.    ... see how open and upfront I am?  And very naïve.  And very trusting and innocent, like all gays.  And never even looking at any of the dozens of nubile young women that always seemed to be fluttering around.  Allegedly.  Never even noticed them, myself.

"… perhaps when I knew him, perhaps when I was associating with him those years ago with my then partner and now husband Renaldo, we never, ever saw evidence or sign of this activity which has since come to light.   ... definitely.  How would we, when we only had eyes for each other?

"That’s why I feel so profoundly upset, er, by what has now been revealed about what he did to women, and why I feel profoundly upset [looking very wronged] that I was taken in by him and continued my association with him for far longer than I should have done.    Here we ago again.  We have all registered the point about the new regrets, haven’t we?  And the association thing?

[Conned?]  "I lived in London; I’m a Brit; he lived in New York; he was an American.  Perhaps if I had been in closer proximity … [But you stayed with him!]   I did in the early years, yes, that’s certainly true.  And now I regret it. Now I regret it.    ... oh yes.  Did I mention regrets?  You know, if you regret something, it’s the same as being absolved from it?

I regret being taken in by him, as many other people do.  But it was 10 years later, when he was Federally prosecuted, that people suddenly learned what he had been up to for all those years.  ... a full decade later!  I’d like you to take away the idea I let 10 years go by between my “association-of-too-long” and the time when anyone knew anything about anything.  And did I mention there were lots of us?

"The Epstein files?  That’s not a matter for me.  I don’t believe I am named in Epstein files.  I have no doubt at all that there’s a lot of um, er, a lot of traffic, correspondence, exchanges between us, absolutely.  And we know those are going to erm, er, surface, we know they’re going to come out, we know they’re going to be very embarrassing,     Here’s the meat of the whole thing, and what M has been working up to, why he wanted to be interviewed: he knows a shedload of shit is coming along shortly, and he needs to get ahead of it.  Because it’s going to be “embarrassing” – but we can all see, he’s embarrassed enough already: as embarrassed as anyone ever needs to be, so this next stuff won’t really add anything we need to dwell on, ... because look, I’ve already admitted before anyone’s said anything, that I’m embarrassed!  We all are!  And being embarrassed is like regretting – it absolves you of your wholly understandable and really quite minor sins.

"… and they [sic] know that I’m going profoundly to regret ...    Here we go again.  BUT - at least he avoids splitting his infinitives, even at this moment of peril.  Good man! 

"… ever having met him and been introduced to him in the first place.     Yes!

"But I can’t re-write history.    ... so it’s deeply unfair of anyone to ask me to do so: really, very unfair indeed.  I’m the victim here, not just of Epstein, but of those demanding I re-write history.  Listen, I’m confessing to everything I ever did – meeting, associating, believing, trusting, the lot.  Yes, that's the charge sheet against me: believing and trusting.  That kind of thing.

"What I can do, what I can do, is express my profound sympathy for those who have were badly treated by him; and secondly, I can accept, yes, I can accept …  ... you see, I really am able to be totally honest and self-critical !

"… that I continued my association with him for too long.   Yawn.  Yeah, we got it.  Peter, we know you are very contrite and very absolved.

"I haven’t discussed it with either the President or the Prime Minister, and I hope I’m doing a good enough job as Ambassador here in the United States to continue to warrant his confidence.    Errr …

"… All the information we have about that dreadful, dreadful man, I wish I could remove that blot [screws up face] he’s like, he’s like a sort of piece of muck attached to my, er, shoes, which I find very difficult to kick away.  But I will do it, I will do it.  But I can only do it by first acknowledging how much I regret having met him in the first place …     Drones on ...

Muck on my shoes, eh?  There's gratitude for you!

ND

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UPDATE (see also earlier post):  it now transpires that, having first been confronted by Bloomberg with his past emails, and a list of questions, Mandelson sent them promptly to the Sun - hoping that a preemptive 'friendly' Sun leak would be less devastating than what Bloomberg might do.  OK: unsuccessful - but what a bold stroke (possibly repaying a favour?).  Always plotting, always thinking creatively, always strategising     


Thursday, 11 September 2025

Strategy, and a Mandelson 'Masterclass'

Being able to do strategy has something in common with being artistic, mathematical, sporty, philosophical or a natural leader.  Most people could be made a little more adept at the associated skills and practices - maybe by good schooling or training, maybe by growing up around people who genuinely have the attribute - but fundamentally, becoming really good at any of them is a no-hope matter for most people.

That said, being a natural at any of these things doesn't mean being naturally good at them.  It just means: being able to swim in that pool.  And many swimmers in the strategy pool turn out to be bad strategists.

Lots of situations and organisations need strategy: and there's a tendency to grab at anyone who seems to be a swimmer in that pool, and/or for people who can to thrust themselves forward.  But really good strategists are few and far between: so it's not infrequent for a mediocre, or even poor strategist to be directing things, and it not even be realised for quite a while.  What's needed is the leadership to say, decisively, "yes, we need a strategist - but not a crap one".  Obviously, Starmer is no such leader.

Among high-profile genuine, but deeply flawed UK political strategists of recent years I would number George Osborne (often lambasted hereabouts for being no more than mere student-politico grade); Dominic Cummings (whose only thought after the very successful 2019 election campaign was "turn government upside down" instead of "deliver actual results from Brexit", making him just a self-indulgent blue-sky obsessive); and of course Peter Mandelson.

Like many of this kind, Mandelson is really interesting.  Long-term C@W readers will oft have seen me praising his political creativity and deep understanding of how the levers of power can be used in imaginative ways.  I don't resile from any of that.  But throughout his well-documented career, he has made gigantic mis-steps galore, often rebounding directly and very personally upon himself, notwithstanding his ability sometimes to deliver superb strategic advice to those he is gazing up to at the time, from the, errr, grovelling position he adopts.  

His actions in advancing his own cause or defending his won position - often when seriously up against it - have frequently been purposeful and genuinely adroit, albeit pretty transparent to anyone paying close attention (and sometimes to the whole world).  I could list many examples; and particularly enjoyed his very clever handling of what he knew was going to be a ghastly series of revelations the moment the latest Epstein cache hit the media.  Getting ahead of it as best he could; lots of well-chosen exculpatory themes, remorse, blame upon others, "being too trusting", willing to be open & honest about it all, "bigger boys / nasty lawyers dropped me in it" etc etc.  Ultimately a doomed effort, of course, but a miniature masterclass.  (I might even come up with a fisk of his recent performances.)

So: Mandelson - good or bad strategist?   My summary would be: technically brilliant; genuinely creative; mostly succeeding when taking on a difficult task on behalf of / at the behest of someone else; oddly lazy in his own cause (a bit paradoxical, admittedly - but I could elaborate: and it's a trait I have noted in others).

It's a big topic.  Other first thoughts?  

ND   
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UPDATE (see also next post):  it now transpires that, having first been confronted by Bloomberg with his past emails, and a list of questions, Mandelson sent them promptly to the Sun - hoping that a preemptive 'friendly' Sun leak would be less devastating than what Bloomberg might do.  OK: unsuccessful - but what a bold stroke (possibly repaying a favour?).  Always plotting, always thinking creatively, always strategising    

Wednesday, 10 September 2025

Trump, Russia, Tariffs, EU ... now Poland

BTL the previous post, anon regales us with this quote relating to a pronouncement from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent:

Donald Trump has reportedly asked the EU to levy tariffs of up to 100% on India and China, in order to increase pressure on Russia to end its war in Ukraine.

Well, the Polish situation demands some kind of response; else the next "unplanned" wave of Gerberas will be over Finland and Estonia.  And I doubt NATO feels able to do much more than throw an aerial defensive screen around, say, Lviv - based firmly in Poland.  Economic measures are all that Europe is really up to at the moment.  The "coalition of the willing" is only looking at what it might do in the event of a ceasefire.

There is no doubt Russia is suffering economically just now (not to mention a growing shortage of gasoline and indeed water (sic) in the Donbas): and it might be made to suffer more.  But it can suffer more!  It's increasingly a war economy; and Russians are like that anyway (see this blog on many occasions).

Tense times.  Who needs the feeble distractions of Rayner and Mandelson?

ND  

Saturday, 6 September 2025

She's breached the Code (with apologies to Macca)

 Yes, the usual apologies to Paul McCartney ...


[four bars of plaintive harp music]

Friday morning at five o’clock as the day begins 
One final glance round the smart Whitehall flat  
Cursing the lawyers and kicking the cat 
She goes downstairs to the limo, clutching her handkerchief 
Now for the letter she knows she must write 
How did it all turn to shite? 

   She's   (I'm just a working class lass 
   breaching   (Just a poor working class lass
   the Code   (What can you do when you've no old school tie?
   Hitting the road after breaching the Code in so many ways 

Starmer snorts as he wanders round in his dressing gown 
Picks up the letter the courier brought 
Standing in triumph; another great snort 
He laughs loud, and cries to Victoria 
“Whoopee! - our Angie's gone! 
How did she think she could have my job? 
Always just shooting her gob!” 

   She   (I did it all for the kids
   was breaching   (Nice flat in Hove for my kids
   the Code   (I wanted everything money could buy
   Tried to upload the establishment Code for so many years 

Sunday morning at nine o’clock she is back in Hove 
Making a call to her old comrade Jez 
Join his new party? - let's see what he says ... 

   She's   (What did I do that was wrong?
   no judgement!   (I didn’t know it was wrong
   None!   (Judgement's the one thing that money can't buy
   Couldn't explode the establishment Code after all those tears 
   Crushed by the Code   (bye bye

ND

Friday, 5 September 2025

Darren Jones: a different kettle of fish

In the right hands, the plumb job in Government is Chief Secretary to the Treasury.  Seat in Cabinet.  Just below the radar, but enormous power.  In charge of government spending - everybody needs to be your friend.   The best springboard imaginable: the partial list below is revealing[1].

And now, CSttT Darren Jones has sprung into another such job: CSttPM, no less, invented specifically for him, it seems (and to help dig the Starmermobile out of the rut in which its wheels are spinning idly as the engine races).  Yes - Darren, the sharp, confident, facetious smartarse, is in charge of more than just spending now.  Let's see what he does with it:  because such jobs and such people are in the type of pivotal position that can see significant results along several axes, personal as well as political and practical.

In business, the term once used was "troubleshooter" - a person appointed to get something Big & Awkward done, often away from the corporate centre.  Julius Caesar is perhaps the greatest example in history; there's Wellington and Slim in British military annals (and many other besides, of course).  Douglas MacArthur: the list could go on.  Right now, Putin has Sergei Kiriyenko[2].  It's happened to me three times in my career: being given plenipotentiary powers in the hope I could fix some unexpected, pressing difficulty.

The thing is: you're never sure how things will turn out - with the task itself, and what the Man does afterwards.  Caesar came back in triumph from Gaul - and immediately mounted a successful coup.  MacArthur had a coup in mind himself.  Wellington was a bit more constitutionally correct when he had the whole of Europe at his feet: he still became PM.  But Slim just quietly slipped away[3].

The troubleshooter appointment will always be given to someone believed to be capable - that's the whole point - but often also to someone viewed as maverick, which can give rise to the problematic aspect of what happens after the hoped-for success; the unwanted consequence of the Faustian pact.  And if he wasn't (identifiably) a maverick before the assignment, well, lots of power and a free hand, sometimes exercised way out over the horizon ... it can turn a man's head.  Capable, and hitherto reliable, doesn't always mean predictable.

We shall follow Mr Jones' progress with interest.

ND

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[1] Past CSttT's include: James Callaghan, Geoffrey Howe, Michael Portillo, Alistair Darling, Danny Alexander, Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak.  (Oh yes, and Chris Philp, whose ambitious little heart nearly exploded at the prospect he had it made, when he briefly held the job.)

[2]  If you haven't heard of him, well most people haven't.  Aye, there's the wonder of the thing - as Sherlock Holmes said in related circumstances

[3]  Zhukov, of course, was effectively banished to Siberia!  but the CP has always been paranoid about military leaders: when you need 'em, you really need 'em.  But afterwards ...