More qualified observers than me can help with this post in the comments. There are some possibilities that are rapidly becoming facts which will create a General Election this year in the UK.
a) Boris becomes PM
b) 30 plus Tory rebels refuse No Deal option and effectively hold the Government to ransom
So far so good, but what does Boris do? He can't force no deal without some Constitutional aberration of trying to shut Parliament which to me is a non-starter and I think for Boris too.
So what is left is only a GE to sort out Parliament with a Leave Majority. Boris will fancy he can do this via an electoral pact with Farage. Whether people buy this will determine if the ruse is successful, but the basic maths are Tory and Brexit Party as one block will be bigger than the divided Lib Dems and Labour vote in the first past the post system...but by how much is the key betting question - it could be a huge margin is Labour lose their Northern seats to Brexit Party candidates.
So the option of a GE GE is Very Likely in the next few months we can perhaps try and forecast a when. There are no other viable routes for Boris as Parliament is against him and he leads a very minority Government that is split anyway.
You could have a second referendum, but even if this goes for Leave it does not sort out the recalcitrant parliament. A vote to remain ends Boris's PM tenure very quickly and not on his own terms, at least at a GE he would go down fighting.
With a GE decided upon, Boris will have to try and square away the Tory party and donors for this effort. Luckily he has July and August for this. We also know that Oct 31st is Brexit day so we need a new parliament before then to plead for a new deal/extension.
So an election sometime between September 1st and October 31st. End of October will be cutting it too close. We need a month for a GE campaign so I feel this is unlikely to be called until everyone is back from summer holidays. This more or less rules out September unless we et a 3 week campaign which could mean 26th Sept as a possible date, more likely to me would be either 3rd October or 10th October.
To me the 10th is cutting is pretty fine to go back to the EU for Plan C, D or E.
So, on balance there is likely to be a General Election on Thursday 3rd of October, with it being called straight after the August Bank Holiday.
Agree or Disagree in the comments.