Stuff his new best friend won't much like, we have to guess - based on his attachment to EVs and immigration and the like, not to mention rogue outbursts in public whenever the mood takes.
Where and when do we see this all coming to grief? Overweening "superstar advisers" (Rasputin, Cummings, Gray, etc) rarely work out, even for a short while.
We can add this to the list of New Year prediction questions. Coming soon.
ND
Having a brain the size of a planet doesn't in any way guarantee clear thinking or intelligent decision-making. But large cranial capacity coupled to a high degree of bias towards action, rather depends upon there being sound judgement in tow, if crazy things aren't to result. Exhibit A, one E.Musk, who by all accounts is exceptionally clever; is demonstrably ultra-strong in the initiative department; and whose practical ventures include some astonishing achievements. And yet, his track record with Twitter from the very start has been one of crass ineptitude - a rich man's folly, ill thought-out.
Can his primary ventures (Tesla, SpaceX) be so comfortably on autopilot now, that he has spare time to engage properly in this manic, frivolous hobby? Presumably not: and perhaps that's why we see such an utter fiasco unravelling. Is there a sound business plan for Twitter lurking somewhere there, merely being hindered temporarily by some unforeseen teething troubles? We hear clearly enough the statement that is supposed to sum it up, Twitter supposedly being strategically positioned at "a unique and amazing intersection of Free Speech and Main Street" - but that sounds to me like so many a brilliant plan to exploit some cunningly identified synergy-on-paper (if not merely a post-rationalised excuse). Might sound great, but where's the proof it'll work? Every VC and PE fund hears twenty glib pitches like this each month. Zuckerberg got there first, anyway.
Speaker's Corner at Marble Arch is at just such an intersection, but I don't see anyone building a business empire on it. I do, however, see all manner of madmen ranting there of an afternoon with the occasional fist fight breaking out. Which brings us to another aspect of all this: Free Speech, an issue on which Musk declares himself to be a fundamentalist.
Another failure of judgement, because there are no fundamental positions on Free Speech this side of North Korea (where they simply set the dial at absolute zero). Everything else is a position on a spectrum - even in the Land of the Free with their hallowed 1st Amendment. There are all manner of things you'll be prosecuted for saying or writing, in the USA as elsewhere (including Speakers' Corner). The argument that a medium like Twitter is "just a platform" is as vacuous as if the Times declared itself to be just some sheets of paper with black ink on them. The only pertinent difference is, it's easier to pin down the Times. Oh, and perhaps also that the Times isn't so beloved of da yoof. It is, however, owned by someone with pretty much the same amount of political clout as the Musks of this world, so it can't simply be that the tech magnates hold more sway in Washington etc. Let's see what the next US election brings - or rather, what happens afterwards, in 2025. Social media carnage is pretty much guaranteed next year, along with maximal Russian attempts at interference.
In any event: does anyone see where Musk is going with Twitter - and can a genuinely compelling commercial narrative be framed? Business case - or nutcase?
ND
When my eldest was at school he was set on to write a story about being marooned on a desert island. His tale read well for a couple of pages but it ended abruptly: "And then they were saved." I had the unkind feeling he was going to get docked a couple of marks for narrative failings.
With this unfairly critical eye of mine, I now read in the Grauniad that a
Breakthrough in nuclear fusion could mean ‘near-limitless energy’
Oh dear. Are we back into the lands of "electricity-too-cheap-to-meter" and "do-we-believe-this" again? I kind-of assume we'll be there on fusion by, maybe, 2050 ...
I say "we", but I'll be dead and gone. Unless, that is, the same lab has also come up with the Elixir of Life. Well why not? Elon Musk surely isn't too busy to turn his attention to that one?
Often looks to me as though he's been trying a few of the early experimental potions on himself ...
ND
Until the ridiculous Thailand cave rescue incident I hadn't given much thought to Musk. Mostly positive. Serious achievements; obviously, brain the size of a planet; vision; and a remarkable ability, not only to think & do hard sums, but to be creative (if not original), and - above all - to implement & execute.
That, though, is a dangerous combination if not leavened with some worthwhile character. Why introduce that negative perspective? Well, because of the Thailand thing ... and then there's his extraordinary public statements on the subject of Tesla shares. Writing as someone who's twice been an officer of a publicly listed US company, with all the blood-curdling warnings - plus accompanying training - one gets from corporate lawyers on the subject of Public Utterances in Matters Affecting the Share Price, I can tell you that one rapidly develops great sensitivity on the subject. Well, mere mortals do, anyhow. How Musk got away with it, who can say? Too big to fall? - like US bankers (though not like Enron's Skilling and Lay).
So now he lays hands on Twitter, and what a dog's breakfast he's making of it. Mass resignations of exactly the people a tech company relies on (leaving with what juicy insider info in their laptops and craniums?); really funny insults being projected onto his offices; obvious prospect of utter meltdown. Note to CEO: you don't insist on people working ultra-long hours etc etc as a precondition of employment: serious hard work happens naturally enough when you (a) inspire them and (b) send them on a mission that captures their imagination. (Flogging works as well - but not when they have serious employability credentials and an unimpeded passage to the door.)
Musk has climbed several mountains in his remarkable career. This one is entirely of his own making. Let's see what happens with Twitter.
ND
SUNDAY UPDATE: an apposite supporting article in today's Observer.
Elon Musk said he would probably launch a humanoid robot prototype next year, dubbed the “Tesla Bot”, which is designed to do “boring, repetitious and dangerous” work. The billionaire chief executive of the electric carmaker Tesla said the robot, which would be about 5ft 8in tall and weigh 125 pounds, would be able to handle tasks such as attaching bolts to cars with a spanner or picking up groceries at stores ... Musk said the robot could have “profound implications for the economy”
So: name that bot!
My proposal? Why, Botty McBottface!
ND
___________
Judge's rulings:
1) Mr BQ wins the compo - perfect!
2) Andrew (The robot does not exist. It is literally a powerpoint and nothing else) has the solid truth of the matter
3) E-K is to fill us all in on his evidently excellent news
Sell in May and go away is the old adage and for another year it seems likely to come true!
Elon Musk's Tesla has long been a favourite in the US markets. beating the competition with technology and Musk's appeal as a real superhero character complete with many flaws.
In January Tesla hit an all time intraday high of $900 per share, today it is heading down to $600 and rapidly, taking the shine of the US tech stocks as the recovery takes hold.
But of course there is more to it than that, Musk promoted Dogecoin and Bitcoin and has also announced he won't be taking bitcoin as payment for cars anymore due to environmental concerns. This has pegged Bitcoin 10%+ too and taken the steam out of the crypto bubble.
In China, Trump had slapped on a 25% tax on Chinese electric imports. Forced to sell more cheaply in their home market, Chinese EV cars have started to take huge bites out of Tesla sales, down as much as 67% this quarter.
This could be the start of a big-rework in the US and world markets. As the vaccinated world returns to something like normality, out of favour leisure, travel and hospitality stocks will see a resurgence as will say office space. The stay at home robinhood investors will return to the real world - they may buy real world assets for a change or drop out of their gambling habit.
With recovery not yet baked in, I don't see a recession any time soon, but that does not mean the markets can't fall as the great reset into Value takes place? Tesla won't be coming back up to its all time highs if this comes to pass.
2021 is so 2021.
First, we have the pandemic.
Second, we have a trumped-up Trump impeachment (he maybe more hurt by the news his twitter ban is now permanent).
Thirdly, we have Elon Musk.
Now, like him or loathe him, Elon is a very astute man when it comes to creating hype and monetising it. Firstly he helped build paypal, now a fundamental core of internet transactions. Then a whole load of hype and tech based companies, including the very successful Space X, less successful Hyper-Loop and of course the enigma that is Tesla.
Tesla, via a great product and just incredible amounts of hope and hype, has made Elon the richest man in the world on paper. He has many devoted fans who hang off his every tweet. And he has a strong personality, not a very nice one to judge by his ex's comments, but a strong one.
And now this week he has pushed Tesla and his own money into Bitcoins and Doge coins. Tesla taking $1.5 billion in BTC has pushed it upwards towards $50,000 per coin. (Doge is a pure fantasy coin that has limitless amounts, pushing it is a pure hype meme in the form of a Ponzi scheme). Saying that Tesla will accept BTC payments for its products though is very smart. Once BTC gains acceptance as a currency with some use other than an electronic store of value, it become a more valuable item.
Already, using the hype generated by his action, Tesla has made more money on paper from BTC investment than it ever has on selling its nice but very expensive cars.
How the US financial regulators must be having nightmares, they are now duelling with the world's richest man and his army of fans, all the while trying to stop another reverse robinhood diminution of retail investors funds.
It is so 2021, social media, dumb money released by the Lockdowns effectively, the power of hype and ponzi all wrapped up for the Regulators. So tempting to call this the late stage bubble. It certainly feels like February 2001 again. But this time, the market is so liquid due to all the Central Bank money printing, the blow-off phase may last for months yet?
