Implausible property development - update

By way of light relief: readers may recall the saga of the seemingly brainless two-house development in Croydon - a pair of very large, pricey properties, awkwardly situated and with no garages - that were taking ages to shift.  

Well, more than a year on from my first report, one of them has sold!  To whom, is not at all clear to the passer-by.  There's a black SUV on the drive (where else?) at all hours, and no signs of human life.  It rather looks as though dust will be continuing to settle in at least six out of the seven bedrooms.

With the other house still firmly unsold (and even dustier), at least our current solo SUV driver has an easy(ish) time of it on the communal driveway.  And of course, buyer #1 has picked the house less hemmed-in.  For the sake of the developer (or whoever still owns the second one) we must look forward to when a couple of large families with corresponding car fleets are in residence, hopefully reaching a satisfactory motoring modus vivendi on this rather limited patch.

ND   

White elephant houses [still] for sale

The amusing and long-running tale continues of the luxury 7-bedroom Croydon houses being offered with no garages and profoundly awkward vehicular access - at, errr, £1.65m apiece.

Well, they still haven't sold - despite the steeply-inclined driveway being nicely paved now, and one or two other cosmetic finishing touches being added (saplings, gates, handrails on the steep concrete steps, see these recent pics).

Steep prices, steep driveways  -  & no garages 

But they are now also being promoted by yet another estate agent - which specialises in marketing properties intended for buy-to-let.  

Can multiple occupancy and asylum-seekers be far behind?  They wouldn't have seven cars to go with the seven bedrooms ... (at least, not until they've "joined the labour market") and would be glad of the five bus routes that pass the front door, some of them 24/7, on the busy A232 'Red Route'.

ND

Pimping property: update - new agent on the job!

Recap: the estate agent's art has been on full display in the attempt to shift a pair of costly new-build white elephants down the road from Schloss Drew, replete with misleading CGI images and hilariously inventive euphemisms.  

Now, perhaps because there has been no obvious movement on selling these large, smart, luxurious but hopelessly impractical properties (seven bedrooms but no garage, very difficult vehicular access, built into the side of a hill on a busy main road), a new estate agent has joined the fray.  And - all credit to them - they present honest images!  Here's the photo they honourably display of the right-hand property as completed; and below, for comparison, the risible CGI we showed before.

In the flesh: steep, narrow front with retaining walls 

In the first agent's blurb: broad, gently sloping driveway

And here's the steep back garden, which didn't previously feature at all.

And where the first agent quoted a steep price but artificially lowered the front aspect, the second agent accurately shows the steep front ... and quotes a lowered price.  (see what I did there, hahah).  Yes, the price has been dropped!  Well, well.   At £1.65m, though, still pricey - relative to what else that money can get you in the same neighbourhood (i.e. level plot, quiet road, big garden, expansive drive, big garage etc etc, and still very large & fine accommodation).

It must be said, some of the rooms look splendid indeed, and new-build is new-build, all mod cons and warranties too.  Maybe somewhere there really is a very large family of wealthy, hill-climbing hermits who ride only bicycles and public buses, don't need anything delivered to the front door, and very much want to live in spacious luxury on a main road.  In Croydon.

Maybe.  I'll keep you posted.

ND

 

Estate agents: getting "creative" again ...

... but this time with a pair of expensive new-builds and the CGI set to "turbo-bollocks".

Our previous two gems of the estate agent's art featured creative euphemisms for "surrounded by dense woodland and distinctly short on basic amenities" in the vicinity of Schloss Drew.  This, also in Croydon, is different:  we're moving to the brave newbuild world of 7-bedroom, 6-bathroom, 4,000 sq ft Executive Housing, smack on the A232 - a very busy main road that boasts five bus routes passing the front door sorry, good transportation links.  Only smart CGI is good enough for these.

"... proudly occupying an enviable raised position"

Looking nice, eh?  As well they might be, this "grand opus of luxury living ... pinnacle of sophistication" is asking £1.7 million** for each.  But look carefully: any sign of a garage or two for these upscale dwellings on a main road?  Errr, that would be 'No': all you get is "Parking space - driveway" - and for the left-hand one, a very modest driveway it is, too, down the side: enough for just a single car by the looks of it, maybe two - in tandem - at a pinch.  And a fine feat of reversing will be required for the one on the right, because the only road access is via the ramp on the left, and thence on up across the front of both houses.  And this is for 7-bedroom houses, FFS.

Now: consider the access driveway ramp to that "enviable raised position".  Nice broad gentle slope, fairly scenic?  A gentle rise of 8 steps, past grass and bushes, for pedestrian access to the front door?  Enough of the CGI, here's a photo of the thing taken today.  That front retaining wall is an absolute necessity for the looming mound behind, especially over on the right where the number of steps is 12, not 8 (11 steps on the left).  If anything that ramp off the main road is even steeper than it looks here: "pinnacle" indeed. 

The garden at the back is precipitous, too.  And just to round things off, here's another actual photo - from the estate agent this time, boasting of a "leafy outlook" to the front. 

Errr, yeah, in summer when the leaves are out, if you confine your gaze to the street-side plane-tree top-cover.  Otherwise, it's a procession of bright red double-decker buses.

The only saving grace, I suppose, is that folks always do their DD for a house purchase in person.  Don't they ..?

ND

_____________________

** by way of calibration to local prices, £1.4m will buy you this, on the genuinely prestigious estate on the hilltop directly behind the above new-builds, but comfortably off the main road.  

1930's: a bit dated but very solid build, these properties buff up beautifully for a couple of hundred grand: splendid garden: all on the level: backing on to a fine park: immaculate - check it out.  And, errr, no shortage of parking!

Photo credits:  the last pic is ShineRocks estate agents.  If the copyright holder of the CGI confection above would like to be credited, just drop me a note in the comments and we'll be happy to name you.

... and it isn't just inflation!

This link is to a thread containing some eye-opening charts portraying how the world (UK in particular) is changing under our feet.  Some of the changes being captured have been gaining momentum over many years, and are fairly familiar (see this chart, for example; and the growth in financial inequality).

Others are less so, e.g.

• % young adults living with their parents  
• % women aged 30 that are childless
• out-of-pocket payments for healthcare in the UK - now the same as in the USA!
• rise in crowdfunding to pay for medical costs

These sorts of socio-economic shifts require a D.Cummings to wrestle with them politico-strategically.  The long term implications will be significant.  Can't see B.Johnson having the slightest interest in that anymore, though.

ND

House prices up 9% in year to March

One thing I really have against the Conservative Government is the crazy approach to housing in the UK.

- We allow in 300,000 immigrants a year and build at best 100,000 new units

- We have easy laws on renting and make that profitable (recently changed I accept) whilst making mortgages hard to get for new buyers

- There is plenty of land, but planning permission is granted in a very restrictive way

- when the Government did act, in the Budget, it has caused a huge spike in Buy to Let purchases that have led to this 9% price rise.

This 9% is a big number, £15,000 + - a huge amount for anyone wanting to buy a house.

Also, every time house prices rise it further locks in the unequal society of the rich over-60's vs the poor under 30's; evermore split as the latter have no savings or assets and the former see theirs rise tax free month in and month out.

It is a very sad state of affairs and I despair that no Government has the guts to make the changes. This current Government has made buying property more expensive and raised taxes, but this seems to have done little (unsurprisingly) to have fixed the underlying issues.

I would expect come 2020 Housing will be right up their with the NHS in terms of peoples' concerns about the state of the nation.

Over-heating UK economy?

Now this may feel a little premature, but with the OECD announcing yesterday that the UK is expanding fastest amongst the major Western economies, is there a chance that we could over-heat too quickly?

Rather like the now nicknamed Walkie Scorchie building in London, the new is not always without teasing problems. Indeed, the building is a metaphor for the wider economy too. On the dust if the financial crisis a new boom has begun. That of London property. Yields are plummeting and prices rocketing as investors from all over the world seek "London Gold".

Last week a banker who is well placed to know, suggested to me that nearly 1/3rd of the world's movable wealth was either being managed in London or looking to be invested here. The new boom has carry over effects as the prime parts of the City have short supply, slowly outer areas of the City are gaining investment.

Another huge benefit for the Banks comes in the form of their over-weight property lending portfolio's, as prices improve these become less toxic, profitable even and the banks' financial worries go away. Indeed a big chunk of the new lending by banks is on property; traditional corporates shy away from debt and with property lending comes an asset that can be held as security. Banks love it again.

All of the above is good news and is praised by the Government as the end of the long recession. However, its birth is inspired too by Government programmes of keeping interest rates artificially low, printing money and the 'Help to Buy' scheme that will see Government invest with people in residential property too.

Does anybody else see a problem with all this? Anybody else reminded of the craziness of the early 2000's as the recipe is the same. A positive now is that overseas equity is investing rather than our own bank's debt at huge leverage, meaning the bust will be less painful for UK Government and people - but bust there will be.

This is no way to run an economy either or ti try to re-balance. A much better bet would be huge investment via tax breaks into the North Sea and Shale exploration. Cheap energy would help non-service industry and lower inflation. Interest rates need to rise, very, very slowly, but rise they should to more normal levels to curb the housing bubble. The Government has no business in Help to Buy and this policy should be scrapped in the face of a recovered housing market.

The party has begun, its nearly time to take away the punch bowl before it gets out of control again. 

Talking Point: UK House Prices

Here's a sweeping statement which has the ring of spin about it: 

"State-backed housebuilding drive would cause price crash, warns Fathom.  A state-backed housebuilding boom would not deliver the sought-after economic recovery, a leading consultancy has warned, but cause prices to crash and tip Britain's banks back into crisis."

Well.  I like to think I have a fair grasp of the laws of supply and demand; but also a bit of an intuitive reality-checker.  Can we really imagine house-building on a scale compatible with "tip Britain's banks back into crisis" ?

(a) we are already 'back in crisis'

(b) this needn't be a zero-sum game

(c) . . . ?

I am sure there are other arguments to be raised.  Have at it !

ND

Quatitiatve Easing: Alchemy at work

If house prices are stabilising, this is one of the signs that low interest rates and quantitative easing are working. Now the question becomes...when to stop? How to prevent hyper-inflation and not a double dip bust?

This is no mean feat and and one that will require much thought and swift policy. Sadly, we have a regulatory mess and a fag-end Government, so I don't give us much chance. The alchemy of money for nothing to boost a housing bubble is a nasty brew.

Housing boom to flop in 3 easy steps

Well, the Government's re-launch started today with a real lemon. Not just a bad idea that won't help many people, but one that has actually been tried before and found wanting, as Chris Dillow spells out here.

Not only are Labour copying Norman Lamont, a man who they love so much they are always going on about David Cameron advising him about Black Wednesday, but they are copying one of his worst ideas.

So, on one level this is all David Cameron's idea if we follow Labour logic on their description of Black Wednesday. I look forward to them ascribing their insipiration to him at the next PMQ's.

The other pieces thrown in, helping the desperate few at the bottom, OK but really not buying you that many votes is it? 6,000. They need millions when they are this far behind in the polls.

And bringing forward spending for social housing, this has all the hallmarks of another PFI-brained scheme where the Government thinks it is so clever it can beat the market and make a profit whilst advancing the cause of social justice. We'll see here how the market develops over the next year or so...