Politicians@Work

Meanwhile, in the City of Westminster . . .

Is David Cameron the luckiest man alive, or what ? Saved by Hoon & Hewitt in an important week when he was looking like a prize eejit. C@W has long registered misgivings about the boy Osborne, and it is surely clear now that his ability to muster (and brief his master upon) a coherent Treasury package is wholly inadequate. Not a comfortable conclusion.

Then again, Gordon Brown is a candidate for second luckiest, with the Robinson family's lurid saga tidying up the front pages for him by the end of the week. But it is surely only short term respite for Brown: see Martin Kettle's analysis

"Wednesday's revolt was more significant than it may look"

and Michael Crick's:

"There's still a small chance that Mr Brown may still go before the election"

(2 uses of 'still' in the same sentence Crick - must try harder)

In the meantime, let us fervently hope that the nation doers not need the services of a serious Foreign Secretary, because we're in the hands of one of the most over-rated, pusillanimous specimens ever to occupy that Great Office.

The bookies must be wiping his name off their boards as I write.

ND

The Politics and Economics of Cold Weather

Had to chuckle as the Grauniad sub-heads its story on the UK’s dwindling gas reserves “Exclusive: Severe weather …” Yes folks, some industrial gas users have had their supplies interrupted, and some gas storage inventory has been drawn down. So what ?

Politicians being what they are, it was perhaps inevitable that the Conservatives would try to spin the bad weather ...

"I have repeatedly warned that Britain lacks the essential back-up plans needed for situations like this one". Clark said

… but at best this is a cheap shot and at worst it’s just erroneous.

It’s a fact that Dan Dan the Gas Supply Man lives in dread of very cold weather in December. That’s because, although gas storage is generally full to bursting by November (certainly it was this winter), statistically it is mostly required for Jan / Feb: even March is often colder than December. So a cold snap earlier in the winter presents an acute dilemma: it’s bad now, but what if it’s even worse in Feb ?

Interrupting large industrials who have chosen to accept the material price discounts applying to interruptible contracts is a very conventional second line of defence – and has been from the earliest days of the natural gas industry, long before there was any seasonal storage at all. In financial terms the interruptible aspect of these contracts is an option, sold by the gas consumer to the supplier. Simples.

The nature of climate change is that we may expect more extreme weather. In these circumstances all forms of flexibility and optionality – storage, interruptibility, fuel-switching (which many of the industrials are now employing), diversification of sources – are at a premium.

There are some uncomfortable choices: for example, fuel-switching is becoming more difficult because of environmental restrictions on burning oil. As always there are trade-offs between emissions policy and security of supply: for example, the growing proportion of wind turbines in the power-plant fleet makes everything more difficult (wind has been performing at a pitiful 27% of notional capacity through Dec / Jan – but that’s exactly the rubbish level of performance built into the National Grid’s planning assumptions, so no surprise there). Coal (yup, you guessed) has been shouldering the largest share of the burden, followed closely by gas. Think about that, greenies.

If the current weather pattern had happened in 2004-5, things would have been much worse. Then, we were on the cusp of self-sufficiency in gas, and the new sources of imports hadn’t come on line. Now, we have newly-developed import capacity (LNG + new lines from Norway) that exceeds national demand – and we still get 50% of our supply from indigenous sources. This makes us the best-diversified major energy economy in Europe (arguably the Dutch are even better off due to colossal indigenous reserves) – and all built by private enterprise, in response to market forces. With one signal exception (my favourite story) the government’s role has been merely to grant licences.

Bottom line: though a cold Feb would be hairy after a cold Dec and Jan, this has always been the case. In keeping with all our major EC confreres, we are successfully managing an import-dependent system. We are very well diversified indeed, and currently the system is taking it in its stride. We will need more, not less flexibility over the coming years, and this is in direct conflict with several strands of emissions policies

Watch out, Greg Clark, for you may find yourself wrestling with worse problems than those of Jan 2010.

ND


photo (c) N.Drew 2010

Will a failed Brown-out lead to UK blockout?

The events at Westminster yesterday make the comic The Thick of It, look quite tame in its parody. Some now quite pathetic ex-ministers hope a simple letter will be enough to get rid of a tenacious and street-fighting Prime Minister.

That the plot failed is not much of a surprise, neither the the lack of solid backing for Brown by his enemies. Brown too did not have the stomach to go for a vote and therefore renew his mandate ahead of an election and get a boost for his personal rating as he would be seen as a toughie.

But the real cost to the country is the on-going collapse of the UK credibility in the eyes of the world. Check out what has happened the past month alone:

The pound is in a falling trend agains the Dollar (and this is another QE currency to boot).

Against the euro the pound is bouncing in a range, but a very weak one with the upsides not lasting for long, suggesting a breakout will be to the downside of an already very weak exchange rate.

Above is the Gilts price over 3 months, just the last month alone has seen a steep fall to a low not seen since the height of the credit crisis.

These three indicators all show the markets being very wary of current UK economic policy. The gilts price in particular has fallen steeply since the Darling pre-budget.

The Government is running out of credibility with its lack of policies to address our growing deficit:

At this rate the question has to be asked whether the Government can really make it to a June Election without a Sovereign Crisis. Dumping delusional Brown may have been our best chance of avoiding a meltdown, but the charts show we are headed for one sooner rather than later. David Cameron is quite right today - we can't go on like this.

Retail sales figures are looking up

Retail sales figures are looking up. Next up 3.22% for 22 week period. M+S a disappointing 0.8% increase,poor no matter how much sir Stew is trying to spin it. John Lewis is the big winner so far with 15.8% up and 10.4% up on 2007.

6% improvement was the unofficial C@W Dec 09 (+) guesstimate overall. That looks like it might be a little too low and will go a long way towards offsetting the poor November figures.

But, before all the congratulatory cigars are smoked its worth remembering that 2008 retail figures were very poor. KPMG reported that their survey showed the worst December figures since they began recording them. It would be almost impossible for the sector to perform worse in 09 than in 08. In '08 pretty much only thye food sector showed a plus. This time the performance is far better across the whole sector, but clothing doesn't look like its made a big recovery. Majestic Wine's figures look very good, 11.5% up, but with the collapse and closure of First Quench and their Threshers rivals,so they should.

For consumers there is some bad news on price inflation. 0.2% rise in inflation from November to December. This is going to jump much higher once the VAT cut has worked its way through by the end of January. {It was never going to go up on Jan 01 universally as we predicted a while back. Operationally its a nightmare. With the snow on the ground now is a very good time for repricing.}
The bad news is the inflation is in the food. 5.4% increase in ambient {shelf storage} food. The end of the Vat cut, still weak pound, and a better performing sector, so less need for discounting, is going to put a lot of pressure on food price inflation.

Trading 2010 - current strategy

An update for those of you interested in my current positions for the start of 2010.

Firstly, 2009 ended with a total profit for both ISA and non-ISA portfolios of 150% - how I would love to repeat that this year, but somehow I doubt lightning will strike twice. My main investment of the year was Minerva and this ended up 450% on the year and in the FTSE All-share top ten!

At the moment all those predicting a double dip are off-beam, with QE the stock market will keep on going this quarter and more if QE continues. Only when we have a Government debt crisis will a dip possibly occur and this won't happen until the election. As such I remain long on stocks with only 10% cash balance and no short positions (very tempting to short gilts though). Interest rates will remain low too, giving a further boost to the recovery. This is of course all in line with Labour's scorched earth strategy of creating a min-boom now which will bust and hit the incoming Tories with a lower margin of victory and a probable double-dipping economy.

Also despite the boom I see commodity stocks as the best current pick. Oil and Copper should be strong for the next few months, if not super bullish. This will raise the prices of these shares. Financials will be weak in the UK, Retailr too, manufacturing and food producers may seem some renewed M&A. Property is on a knife edge as a continuation of the recovery in commercial property prices could see the sector continue its long-run - but that is very much in the balance.

I will go into specific stock picks later in the week.

What do you see as the trends to buy and sell? What are your positions?

Happy Mondays

Can't concentrate on the markets today after my footie team beat Manchester United at Old trafford for the first time since I started supporting them. May be a while until it happens again...

even more Predictions for 2010

So, in 2010:

1. Poor economic results for quarter one 2010 helps to give a slightly better than expected Tory win. Cameron has a 45-60 Majority. England doing very well in the World Cup allows the Tories to announce an emergency public sector cuts budget followed by another tax raising budget later in the year. However the focus on avoiding unemployment causing tax rises benefits business and allows recovery, with the UK ending the year with 1.5% growth.

2. Troop casualties rise during the June surge but by the end of the year plans are well advanced for troop withdrawals from Afghanistan. British commitment to be severely scaled back for 2011. Afghanistan continues to dominate the news.

3. The integrated Broadband-TV set top box, which should just about make an appearance, will make a difference to households. BBC will reap the benefits of I-player on screen. New entertainment companies will sell screenable content and replace DVDs. A new lease of life emerges for the dying reality TV format.
But in future years having the ability to pull up a bloggers views while watching the news or a product review while on the shopping channel will make providers and producers wish they'd never uttered " total 360 degree fully integrated social networking on demand television."

4. Dave Miliband will succeed Macbreth. But only just and he will have to give a high profile role to Ed. A Kennedy style cabinet forms, the difference being they never actually hold office.

5. UK will retain its AAA But the cuts will have to be more severe than the politicians think. The current 10-15% will not be enough. NHS and education ring fencing, plus the government's forward military announcements are not going to leave much for the rest. Possibly even department merging or another attempt to make councils regional instead of county wide.

Happy New year.

More Predictions for 2010

I don’t recall being less comfortable making predictions. For one thing the UK general election result has a rather binary feel to it – either a workable Tory majority at the first attempt, or political chaos for a while which, with a truly malign crew of Labour string-pullers at work, could be very destructive indeed. Many issues hang on this.

There is surely only a gloomy economic prognosis for 2010, as the various vast and indiscriminate stimuli come to an end. This will put the dampeners on a wide range of sectors and markets that were starting to feel quite pleased with themselves again at the end of 2009. It is impossible to contend that the many huge programmes of government measures taken worldwide in such blind panic in 2008-09, and of such an unprecedented nature, were in any sense properly thought-out or calibrated, let alone optimal.

If this were not enough, we need only mention the word Iran, as CU said.

On the positive side I take great heart from the non-outcome of Copenhagen, which in EU circles should have given power to the elbows of the skepto-pragmatists (Germany), and put paid to the naïve but hyperactive ‘idealism’ of Gordon "Scorched-Earth" Brown (we may be sure the re-convening of the great Kyopenhagen road-show will be timed for after June . . .)

So, in 2010:

1. There will be no ‘legally binding’ global environmental pact of any substantial nature.

2. The tension between Continental oil-indexed contractual gas prices (rising), and the spot-price of traded gas (remaining soft), will go critical – with beneficial consequences.

3. Gold, which has been looking so technically strong for many months, will continue to benefit from purposeful non-OECD diversification of reserves.

4. Ed Miliband will succeed the scorched-earther (I am with Dale on this one).

5. UK will retain its AAA (not with Dale here – but long gold just in case, see 3 above)

And a Happy New Year to all !

ND

Happy New Year: Cityunslicker's New Year Predictions

Ok, we are going to do 5 predictions each this year. Over the past 3 years (can't belive this blog is now in its 4th year)we have collectively been about 66% correst, which I think is not bad at all.

Here are mine to kick us off:

FTSE - The QE rally is just getting under way but there will be a big bump due to the end of QE and the election. I expect another rollercoaster year which will be great for trading, if a bit stressful. However, by the year end people will buy into stocks as they prepare for the coming inflation. Expect the FTSE to end up nearly 10% up, shy of 6000.

Stock pick - EMED Mining. Currently available at 11p, this company is re-opening a large copper mine in Spain and is progressing with that permitting that is needed. As the opening gets closer (which is due end 2010, but maybe early next year) the share price will increase to the potential of the revenues from the mine. This should at least go up 300% this year, maybe more.

Oil Price - With all the predicitions, there is a lot of capacity out there in the oil market thanks to the recession. As such although the price will be volatile, it overall will bounce around the level it is now, unless there is some huge shock like the US attacking Iran.

UK Politics - The election is pretty much settled now that we are so close to the General Election. My bet will be on the Speaker of the House of Commons holding his Buckingham seat against Nigel Farage.

Public Spending - Whatever the results of the election, we will see and Irish style cut in spending or else face the IMF coming in to bail us out. The politicians may manage to avoid this, but the cuts will cause widesprad strikes and unrest as the recession catches up with the public sector.

Outsourcing; a thing of the past?

Just time for a snippet today. I noted this article trumpeted by the BBC. Apparently companies are no longer outsourcing quite so much to India et al and are instead bringing work back on shore. The number one reason is failure of outsourcing to deliver the benefits promised; the curse of the indian snake-oil salesman?

What intrigued me though was the lack of a mention for the good old Pound Sterling. Beaten into submission by profilgate government money printing, our currency is devalued and set to fall further in 2010. This makes UK wages and costs look a little better compared to foreign opposition.

It is small reason to be cheerful if you are a manufacturer; excepting that the cost of all your raw materials is goingt o sky-rocket.

How did the commenters do in 2009

Yesterday we looked at the 3 bloggers of Capitalists@Work to see how we did for 2009. Pretty well overall, considering what a mess the year was!

Last January we asked the readership to leave in the comments their predicitions so below are the best and worst of that bunch.

Steven L -  well this regular commentator who has his own blog, did pretty well. He called Obama to spend trillions, the dollar to fall and the stock market to recover. Only the Pound dropping below the Euro was wrong. That is a lot of better calls than many media economists made!

Houdini - Another blogger who chipped in was Houdini, his predictions were oil to rise spectacularly, Obama to be a disaster. On the no tos good side, the FTSE was set to be mediocre and the far east to collapse.

Dearime - A fine commenter ton many sites, said to buy kiwi dollars. That would have proved to be a shrewd move.

Craig - A banker no less, had one pure home run among a set of pretty good predictions, that there would be another massive rescue of the banks. See any more of that for 2010 Craig?

newmainia, The loss to blogging that is newmania had seemingly prescient predictions for 2010 in 2009. Spot on with his comment that David Cameron would have to choose between the popular and the right policies.

Croydonian, blogger extraordinare, and all round fine fellow, did not think Russia would intervene in Armenia or the caucus region - a better choice than our own ND there...

Lilith - Did not get any right, but wins the best picture award, see above!

Overall it must be said there was far more accurate predictions than bad ones. Lots of people wishfully thought we may be rid of Gordon Brown but that is to be expected.

Time to pay closer attention to these come the end of this week!

How did we do on 2009 Predictions?

OK, here are our predictions for 2009 that we made on Jan 1. Now is a good time to see where we got to before coming up with our new set for 2010 on New year's day: We normally get 66% plus, can we keep up our accuracy?

ND is first up
1 - natural gas prices to fall dramatically. Well see this - pretty spot on to say the least. Hope you put the short on!
2- CPS and HMRC to struggle  - this is one that did not really happen.
3 - Obama to be tested by a series of events, well yes they did happen, but perhaps not on the scale of what may have been expected. Afghanistan and Climate Change not really distracting too massively form his domestic agenda.
4 - BHP to be in the news - well if you had followed and bought in, then you would have done well in this share this year, see here.

CU next, only 50/50 so far -
1. Oil as a massive investment opportunity with prices to end at over $50 and perhaps more. Home run.
2. US Dollar to fall dramatically, tick, China to allow Yuan to float, cross.
3. Gilts strike - well there was a minor one, but 2010 will see this prediction come to fruition.
4. UK inflation below 0% , well RPI has been for some time, but CPI never touched it in the end.

 BQ, next - work to do as we are only just over .5

1. Hundreds of bankruptcies - well banks decided not to pull too many plugs although there were quite a few nonetheless, no more big names followed Woolies.
2. Public sector pay to cause problems and a rebellion over Royal Mail - tick to both, the former maybe not in strikes yet, but they are all in the pipeline.
3. Election speculation, but no election - yup,.theme of the year.
4. ITV to struggle - another big yes, huge problems there , so much so they have struggled even to find a new management team!

So overall, BQ wins with 3/4, CU gets 3/4 (qualified) and ND 2/4

8/12 - 66% - so we just keep our mark. Tomorrow I will look at what the commentators said....

The end of the decade quiz

1


2

3
4
5








6
7 ............................8.......................9................................10









11................12.......................13..................14...................15...........................16








.17 .............................18...................19
20.......................21

If these are the answers, what is the question.

Should keep you going until New Year.
The pictures are all clues


A} Minus $420million
B} £118,000 a year
C} $300 million
D} 789 million
E} $300 billion
F} £117 Billion so far
G} 1.5 billion a year average
H} 21.1 million
I} £180
J} £16 million pot
K}$275
L} 30,000
M} 14.3%
N} 2,986,000 a day
O} £1.7 billion
P} £373,000
Q} 35.3%
R} Zero
S} 3,600
T} £829.7 billion net.
U} 88p

A-7 Jacko's debt at his death.
B-8 average claim of an MP's expenses.
C-13 estimated cost of the movie.
D-9 Cost of Dome on sell off.
E-USA estimate of the cost of its measures to tackle the Y2K bug
F-18 cost of the bank bailout so far. With liabilities rises to 850bn.
G-12 Annual UK cost of the Iraq war.
H-11 Jordan's earnings from the books she has written but never read.
I-21 Blunketts rail claim that finished him off.
J-20 Fred's pension pot, now a bit less.
K-19 The ounce price of Gordon's gold in 1999 at historic low point sell off.
L-5 Complaints to BBC about Ross.
M-3 Tesco share of UK all UK retail.
N-2 Daily average sales of The SUN.
O-16 Fantasy level of tax Libbers claim will be raised by the mansion tax.
P-17 Mandelson's first resignation, the dodgy loan amount.
Q-15 Tony Blair's share of the vote for his historic 2005 third 1/2 term.
R-1 Total number of county councils controlled by the government in England after the 2009 local elections.
S-6 Total new laws passed since 1997-2008,almost 1 a day.
T-10 net public sector debt to November.
U-4 Aunty Jacq's bathplug.

Happy New Year

Elf and Safety {2}

if you've sneaked off from your family for a break....

HSE Guidance - the singing of 'Festive Songs'

pt1

Rudolph the red nosed reindeer

Rudolph, the red-nosed reindeer

had a very shiny nose.

And if you ever saw him,

you would even say it glows …

You are advised that under the Equal Opportunities for All policy, it is inappropriate for persons to make comment with regard to the ruddiness of any part of Mr. R. Reindeer. Further to this, exclusion of Mr R Reindeer from the Reindeer Games will be considered discriminatory and disciplinary action will be taken against those found guilty of this offence. A full investigation will be implemented and sanctions - including suspension on full pay - will be considered whilst this investigation takes place.

Little Donkey

Little donkey, little donkey on the dusty road;

Got to keep on plodding onwards with your precious load …

The RSPCA have issued strict guidelines with regard to how heavy a load that a donkey of small stature is permitted to carry, also included in the guidelines is guidance regarding how often to feed the donkey and how many rest breaks are required over a four hour plodding period. Please note that due to the increased risk of pollution from the dusty road, Mary and Joseph are required to wear face masks to prevent inhalation of any airborne particles. The donkey has expressed his discomfort at being labelled 'little' and would prefer just to be simply referred to as Mr. Donkey. To comment upon his height or lack thereof may be considered an infringement of his equine rights.

We Three Kings

We three kings of Orient are

Bearing gifts we traverse afar -

Field and fountain, moor and mountain

Following yonder star …

Whilst the gift of gold is still considered acceptable - as it may be redeemed at a later date through such organisations as 'cash for gold' etc, gifts of frankincense and myrrh are not appropriate due to the potential risk of oils and fragrances causing allergic reactions. A suggested gift alternative would be to make a donation to a worthy cause in the recipients name or perhaps give a gift voucher.

We would not advise that the traversing kings rely on navigation by stars in order to reach their destinations and suggest the use of RAC routefinder or satellite navigation, which will provide the quickest route and advice regarding fuel consumption. Please note as per the guidelines from the RSPCA for Mr Donkey, the camels carrying the three kings of Orient will require regular food and rest breaks. Facemasks for the three kings are also advisable due to the likelihood of dust from the camels

Merry Christmas

Festive Season. Elf and Safety

if you've sneaked off from your family for a break....

HSE Guidance - the singing of 'Festive Songs'

pt1

The Rocking Song

Little Jesus, sweetly sleep, do not stir;

We will lend a coat of fur,

We will rock you, rock you, rock you,

We will rock you, rock you, rock you:

Fur is no longer appropriate wear for small infants, both due to risk of allergy to animal fur, and for ethical reasons. Therefore faux fur, a nice cellular blanket or perhaps micro-fleece material should be considered a suitable alternative.

Please note: only persons who have been subject to a Criminal Records Bureau check and have enhanced clearance will be permitted to rock baby Jesus. Persons must carry their CRB disclosure with them at all times and be prepared to provide three forms of identification before rocking commences.

Jingle Bells

Dashing through the snow -

In a one horse open sleigh,

O'er the fields we go -

Laughing all the way

A risk assessment must be submitted before an open sleigh is considered safe for members of the public to travel on. The risk assessment must also consider whether it is appropriate to use only one horse for such a venture, particularly if passengers are of larger proportions. Please note, permission must be gained from landowners before entering their fields. To avoid offending those not participating in celebrations, we would request that laughter is moderate only and not loud enough to be considered a noise nuisance.

While Shepherds Watched

While shepherds watched

Their flocks by night,

All seated on the ground

The angel of the Lord came down

And glory shone around …

The union of Shepherd's has complained that it breaches health and safety regulations to insist that shepherds watch their flocks without appropriate seating arrangements being provided, therefore benches, stools and orthopaedic chairs are now available. Shepherds have also requested that due to the inclement weather conditions at this time of year that they should watch their flocks via cctv cameras from centrally heated shepherd observation huts.

Please note, the angel of the lord is reminded that before shining his / her glory all around she / he must ascertain that all shepherds have been issued with glasses capable of filtering out the harmful effects of UVA, UVB and Glory.

Merry Christmas

A Holiday Trip to the Opera

A HAPPY CHRISTMAS to all readers !

And in the festive spirit, we've been to the opera for a viewing of that seasonal classic, Infidelio, or The Scouser Lady Macbeth.

In case you don't know the plot ...

* * * * * * *

Toni and Cheri, two tireless seekers after wealth, make their annual pilgrimage to visit the fabulously rich Silvio at the Palazzo Fribi. Cheri has let it be known that she’d like a large car for Xmas, but there has been a hilarious mix-up in translation and to her disgust, Silvio gives her a Japanese camper van (Nissan Dorma). She lets her anger be known, making a dreadful scene.

Silvio responds with the classic tenor aria Ou va la jeune indoue? (what’s up with her indoors?). Embarrassed, Toni replies in kind with his explanation: she had humble Scouse beginnings and is a bit keen on material possessions and status symbols. He sings La donna é mobile (she’s a terrible social climber).

But Cheri is still kicking up rough, and Toni reprimands her: Regnava nel silenzio (Shut it! You’re not the Queen!). Yet still she carries on, and Silvio is not impressed with Toni’s inability to bring her to heel, singing L'amour est oiseau rebelle (your lover is a disobedient wazzock). Toni leaves, ashamed by her behaviour.

Cheri recognizes that her tantrum is getting her nowhere and decides to try a different approach. She tells Silvio she has seen on Italian TV that he is the proud possessor of a magnificent instrument: is this true ? Silvio is visibly flattered and so, emboldened, she asks if she can finger his Magic Flute. Her host gets it out for her in a trice and she reaches for it eagerly: but he is taken aback and sings Che gelida manina (blimey, your hands are cold!)

However, she proves adept at playing the flute, and Silvio expresses his pleasure with her performance - Vesti la giubba (look at the gob on that!)

Suddenly, there is commotion: Toni has returned, bringing with him the unmistakable figure of Prescotti, whom he briskly introduces with Largo al factotum (meet my fat sidekick). They forcibly drag Cheri away from Silvio and his flute, and bundle her off in the Nissan Dorma. Silvio, who was beginning to enjoy himself, reacts angrily, and as the trio drive away the air is ringing with his final curse: Votre toast, je peux vous le rendre (you’re all toast, I can arrange rendition for the lot of you !)

ND

QE not yet working according to Bank of England!

OK, this is my last serious post before Xmas, I am sure everyone has better things to be doing right now (after reading this of course).

But there latest Bank of England meeting notes are very interesting. The line I am intrigued by is the one that says with Money Supply growth falling QE is not working. Funny that, I agree with regards to money supply, but assets have boomed these last 6 months. The FTSE is up 53%, Gold is up, oil is up etc.

Now the Bank expects the real impact of QE to be felt in the economy with a lag, so that will be next year then!

Does this mean that instead of a big bust in the first few months of the year we will have a huge boom? Clearly the Bank think that..makes pickaing a strategy hard. Except that the Bank have been wrong about nearly everything for 2 years now - so perhaps the best thing to do is plan for the opposite.

I do also get the impression that QE is not about to be stopped on these numbers, which is bad for the Pound and good for Equities.

Eating those words

C@W managed to find a couple of menus from the Christmas political parties this year.

See what you've been missing

Nulabour Christmas dinner

{Spinners Arms }

Melted ice caps sorbet
Miliband’s a Melon

{main}

Gordon's glossed over economic turkey with a hint of lemon
Ainsworth’s cooked goose,
Baroness Ashton's Brussels sprouts
Ali Campbells’s Roasted poll-tatoes ,
Jaqui's Manberries Sauce,

Hazel Blears' nutty stuffing,
Prescott’s tiny sausage wrapped in bacon
(pigs in a blanket)

Red Flag cabbage, Green-bean shoots of recovery, Hash Browns
lashings of hot gravy train.

Alternative –

Brown's a chicken supreme

or Darling’s beef {with Gordon}.

Porky Pies

Selection of cooked books.

Dessert

Peter Mandelson’s mince pies and whipped-up media cream
Ed Ball's a flaming pudding
Harman's a fruitcake and Hain's Tangerines with core vote crumble.

Fine electoral whines or spirits {of Tony}
Bitter Lemon with bendy in the wind political Straw

Gordon’s crackers and joke budgets.
Paper Crowns

Games available in family room:
Gilts Jenga, Clouseau, Its a knockout,RISK of default, Snakes and Losers, Go for Broke

Cappuch-schemos

Quantitative eating

Bill: £8,500 + per taxpayer

Services not included or provided.

BluLabour Christmas banquet

{Winners enclosure Epsom.}

Windsor soup

Palm off ham

Main

Suckling Hogg

Duck House a l'Orange

Range of thick cuts

Damien Greens

Bercow’s Brandy butter-up

Dan Hannan Brussels spouts

Roast UK peasants

Eric Pickles onions

Hickory smoked Hammond

Grilled Porterhouse Blue

Roast past snips with Immigrated cheese

Dessert

EU-rolly over poly

election Dates and 'give a figs'

Osborne's a plum duff.

Licorice Allsops

Eton Mess

EU Referendum fudge

Followed by Port and Ken's B.A.T cigars.
Blue blood cheese, Ritz crackers, Rich tea or Kirkbrides take the biscuits, David Davis sour grapes.
and Boris Johnson's Tory Crackers.

Followed by games at the second home:

Scrabble for power, Right wing Charade, 10 year Monopoly, Connect 40 {seats}, Pass the pigs.

The Lib Dems?

The importance of Greece

To a casual observer, you may not even have noticed the problems that are afflicting our fellow Europeans, Greece. This is a country whose long socialist and corporatist rule has led it to a terrible financial position. Public sector wages and the size of the public sector is high. They have a huge military for an imaginary war with Turkey and a corrput private sector that pays very little in the way of tax.

As such their bonds have been under huge pressure, unable to make the grade so to speak the ratings agencies (still trusted I see despite the debacle they made of sub-prime) have started to downgrade Greek debt.

The Greeks have now, Ireland style, settled on a policy of mass austerity to try and cut out the danger of a default and of being kicked out of the euro.

The importance of Greece though is that in 2010, the issue of Sovereign debt will dominate the global news. the US, UK, Japan and virtually all major countries are trying to issue too much debt. If the great recession does not gently peter out (which is the most optimisitc view one could take), then Government debts are going to be the number one story.

Also, if these debt issues get out of control they are being used as a marker the major investment banks to mark a bnig sell-off in Stocks and shares around the world.

Greece might seem like a small country with problems far away, but they could soon be our problems and are set to dominate the agenda at home in the run up to the election.

The Very Definition of Self-Serving

Brown added: "One of the frustrations for me was the lack of a global body with the sole responsibility for environmental stewardship. I believe that in 2010 we will need to look at reforming our international institutions to meet the common challenges we face as an international community."

That would be, err, around July 2010 ? And it would need a very powerful General Secretary ? With enormous powers and budget ?

Just guessing.

ND