Happy New Year all!

 Hope you have a good one. More posts in the New Year!

Happy Xmas, all on C@W !

 ... and when CU gets back we'll try for a pub session, like we did from time to time in those pre covid days.  I owe a couple of folks a couple of beers.

Compo coming in the New Year.  And we'll take a look back at last January's, too.  (A few red faces, methinks.)

ND

Covid in China: inflexion point?

What's going on in China?  Nobody really knows.  One thing's for (almost) certain - you lift the covid restrictions on urban populations that have been locked down like wot they have for two years, with omega (and maybe other variants) in the breeze - and it's going to go through them like a dose of salts.

There are several aspects of major interest - Western self interest - of which here are a couple.

(1) Economic: the lid has only been kept on the seething global energy cauldron (what lid !? - I hear you say.  Oh yes, gas prices could have gone higher still) because the Chinese economy has been well and truly on hold whilst in lockdown.  With a property crash, and declining retail sales.  And that hasn't just "suppressed" (relative term) worldwide energy prices: it's the same for all the major raw materials.  You think you've seen price spikes?  Well, if the lifting of lockdown works out positively for China in GDP terms, you ain't seen nothing.

I know some large gas players who are making a massive bet on this.  Personally, whilst fully acknowledging what could happen, I'm not at all sure it will.  Sickness on a vast scale may not be so easily consistent with revitalising that monster economy. 

(2) Political:  what did it take for Xi to backtrack on a lockdown policy that had his name all over it in bold logograms?  With serious protest already building - and then the TV-watching public noticing that The Whole Of The Rest Of The Entire World (as represented in World Cup spectators) were mingling closely and happily with not a mask in sight.

Well, presumably the CPC still reckons it can command the information space, and will convert the screeching U-turn into a personal triumph.  Of sorts.  But maybe not.  Maybe everyone can now see he's for turning when the right combination of factors applies.  And maybe his U-turn has really awkward consequences ...

Hmm.  China-watching in '23 is going to be interesting.  And those gas prices.

ND 

Strikes: Government will stick - it has nowhere to go

The winter strikers have, inadvertently, made the Government's strategy for it.  There are so many strikes, all essentially pleading with ministers to intervene with the big public chequebook; and the government simply can't do that.

This problem (for the unions) presumably stems from (a) zero inter-union coordination: this ain't the Revolution; and (b) the relatively new phenomenon of 1-day strikes.  

Time was when strikes (of the non wildcat variety) were indefinite, all-out affairs that had to be planned months in advance, with a big fighting fund laid up to be able to foot the bill for Strike Pay.  In those days, unions couldn't do much else than coordinate these things, at least to some degree, in the manner of record labels of the same era who would keep "loosely in touch" to avoid big albums being launched competitively in the same window.  They needed mutual aid, not least on the picket lines, from people still drawing a wage.  One major front at a time.

How fragmented everything is these days.

Except, of course, the Government, which is (relatively) monolithic and, after years of nonsenses, quite well versed in messaging: yes we know it's shitty, but we all have to WFH / tighten belts / look after each other / etc etc, and just get on with things as best we can.  Blitz Spirit Lite (again).  The total inertia of Kier "shoo-in" Starmer, while he waits for everything to fall in his lap at the next GE, is quite helpful in this regard too.  Makes everything seem like some kind of unavoidable natural disaster.

So it looks like that's what it'll be: a piecemeal mess with minimal government movement, despite endless careful, ultra-reasonable-sounding union counter-messaging on the lines "all that needs to happen is the government to step in with a bit of compromise: we don't really mean 19%"**.  Which is gonna continue to fall on deaf ears: because where on earth does that lead the government?  They just ain't gonna pay out 10% to everyone on the active payroll - even if, perversely, they have done just that for the pension / social security roster.

ND

___________

** There's another emollient union line being peddled of late: It's not really about wages, it's about conditions - just scrap those provocative "reforms" & that'll do the trick ...

Europeans Don't Understand Markets, Part 37

Not a new theme around here, but the examples keep rolling in.  Now it's the protracted attempt to enforce a "European gas price cap".  Even the ECB knows this one is crazy: and for once, the Germans (the usual butt of my scorn on this issue) are more-or-less on the side of the angels.

The idea is this.  Almost all the economic ills of Europe are the fault of high wholesale gas prices.  (Never mind that this ain't true: French electricity prices are even higher, caused by the chronic state of their ailing nuclear fleet.)  So: if we simply legislate to cap wholesale gas prices ... all our troubles are over - right?

Most of the wrangling is over what the magic number should be.  Too high, and "it has no effect".  Too low, and, errr, well hang on, what does "too low" mean?  We want it to be low!

This fighting over exact numbers is an entirely fatuous fracas because the whole idea is structurally bonkers, whatever the level of the "price cap".  How is it supposed to work?  Unlike its predecessor, the "electricity price cap" (which was in effect to be paid for by governments, via a cash subsidy whenever prices actually rose above the cap - like the UK's present "energy price guarantee"), this one is an outright ban on gas dealings above the capped level.  Dealing, that is, on the leading exchange platforms handling spot trade at the main European gas trading hub, the Dutch TTF.  On an automated basis, no deals would be accepted at prices above the cap.

So, errr, no gas for Europe then, if the TTF price goes too high?   That's the German worry; but actually, nope - trade would simply migrate to other forums: bilateral dealing or, whisper it softly, platforms not coming under the EC's jurisdiction (London, NY and Chicago come to mind).  Any problems with that?  Well, there's the question of clearing and credit support: but bear in mind that in the days of yore, almost all gas trades were bilateral - and there are viable (if clunky) means of instituting bilateral credit support.  They'll just need to dust off those old ISDA Master Swaps.

In their deep ignorance, Euro-politicians work themselves into fine frenzies over this stuff - and burn a great deal of precious midnight oil.  Presumably they're all on double-time, free meals and 5* hotels when they work after 4pm or something.  And when it goes predictably tits-up, they all look around in wonderment and call for an enquiry.  What is the point of these people?  

ND 

Bankman-Fried & FTX: an entertaining indictment

Well, the criminal indictment per se is actually rather dry.  As ever in the USA, the first several charges are for Wire Fraud, that handy all-purpose offence that makes things Federal.   Then just plain Fraud, and Money Laundering, and Conspiracy etc etc.

The appealingly racy wording of the Civil Complaint livens things up considerably, and makes it clear what is alleged to have been going on. 

Unbeknownst to investors and to FTX’s trading customers, Bankman-Fried was orchestrating a massive, years-long fraud, diverting billions of dollars of the trading platform’s customer funds for his own personal benefit and to help grow his crypto empire ... Customers around the world believed his lies, and sent billions of dollars to FTX, believing their assets were secure on the FTX trading platform. But from the start, Bankman-Fried improperly diverted customer assets to his privately-held crypto hedge fund, Alameda, and then used those customer funds to make undisclosed venture investments, lavish real estate purchases, and large political donations ... While he spent lavishly on office space and condominiums in The Bahamas, and sank billions of dollars of customer funds into speculative venture investments, Bankman-Fried’s house of cards began to crumble... Even in November 2022, faced with billions of dollars in customer withdrawal demands that FTX could not fulfill, Bankman-Fried misled investors from whom he needed money to plug a multi-billion-dollar hole. His brazen, multi-year scheme finally came to an end when FTX, Alameda, and their tangled web of affiliated entities filed for bankruptcy on November 11, 2022.

Massive frauds; lies; lavish spending; crumbling house of cards; plugging multi-billion-dollar holes; brazen schemes; tangled webs - I like this writing style.  And there's more: the Complaint wants an order to be issued upon SB-F "to disgorge his ill-gotten gains".  That's while the prosecutors try to get him banged up, of course.

As I've often said, provided you're not a senior banker of the 2008-9 cohort enjoying some kind of 'Obama indemnity', the Americans know how to throw the book at business wrongdoers.  Strange thing is, though:  there never seems to be much to stop these massive ponzi schemes getting started, does there?

ND  

At last, nuclear fusion! With one bound, we are free!

When my eldest was at school he was set on to write a story about being marooned on a desert island.  His tale read well for a couple of pages but it ended abruptly:  "And then they were saved."  I had the unkind feeling he was going to get docked a couple of marks for narrative failings.

With this unfairly critical eye of mine, I now read in the Grauniad that a

Breakthrough in nuclear fusion could mean ‘near-limitless energy’ 

Oh dear.  Are we back into the lands of "electricity-too-cheap-to-meter" and "do-we-believe-this" again?  I kind-of assume we'll be there on fusion by, maybe, 2050 ...   

I say "we", but I'll be dead and gone.  Unless, that is, the same lab has also come up with the Elixir of Life.   Well why not?  Elon Musk surely isn't too busy to turn his attention to that one?  

Often looks to me as though he's been trying a few of the early experimental potions on himself ...

ND

Next Year's Trip To The Moon - do we believe this?

When my kids were growing up I suggested to them that sometimes, when something quite surprising is asserted, it's a good idea to pause & say ... do we believe this?

I know it's awfully unfestive to be so skeptical: but when I see multi-media coverage of Rhiannon Adam's story that she's going to the moon next year, courtesy of Elon Musk and, errr, Japanese billionaire Yusaku Maezawa who'd like her to have a ticket ... well, I feel we may be deep into do-we-believe-this? territory. 

Mission chiefs said Ms Adam, from Ireland, will be the first openly queer woman to go to space ... She added: “I spend a lot of my life working with a lot of remote communities and it felt like a natural thing to do, to apply to go to space and explore the most remote community ever, which would be us in space.”

I'd so like to be proven wrong on this.  Call me a cynic, but I can't help feeling the lady will get another call in a few months.  Hi Rhiannon?  It's Yusaka!  No no, it's not about your space-flight training, that'll be a bit nearer the day.  No, not the medical check-up either - you don't need one!  No, what I wanted to do was help you get started on your crowdfunding.  What's that?  Yes, you know, crowdfunding!  It's easy!  Listen, you're bound to know any number of suckers.  Well, I mean, surely you have a lot of, errr, like-minded friends ..?

Perhaps in our 2023 Predictions compo we should include a binary yes/no item on this one.

ND

The wisdom of crowds ... and mobs?

For a while now I have been of the view that some on the 'left' (which I take to embrace the more radical 'greens') are gingerly feeling their way towards trying to legitimise violence in favour of their causes.  They are a bit nervous about this, of course, not least because they are all nice middle- and upper-middle class people who personally rather shrink from violence, much as some of them drool over those rougher types like the Sinn Fein leadership and radical Islamists who couldn't give a monkeys. 

A couple of days ago, this curious piece appeared in the Grauniad, by one Stephen Reicher, professor of psychology at the University of St Andrews:  

China’s Covid policy didn’t have to end in riot and protest. This is why it did

It concludes with this odd remark. 

China’s protests show us that, far from being mindless, crowds and collective protest are highly sophisticated and give us insight into the underlying society. Particularly from those who do not normally have voice, “riots are the voice of the unheard”

Now we can certainly agree that some Chinese protestors are quite creative in how they articulate anti-government sentiments via things like holding blank sheets of paper, or inventing instantly evocative pop-up memes and shibboleths that temporarily evade the sluggish but overpowering CPC censors.  Can be sophisticated enough, for sure.

But "crowds ... far from being mindless ... are highly sophisticated" ?  Well, we've probably all enjoyed being part of a good-humoured crowd at a sporting fixture.  But it's not very comfortable to look into the "mind" of many a crowd outside the soccer stadium afterwards, still less that of many a mob.  We don't even need to cite lynch mobs.  Earlier in the article, Prof Reicher wants us to reject David Cameron's view of the 2011 "riots" as being mere criminality.  Well, matey, the opportunistic looting sprees of the day after Tottenham most certainly were just that, much as some lefties hoped they heralded the Revolution.

I really wonder where this dalliance with violence is going.  Wherever it is, I very much doubt it will be to the long-term political gratification of the radical left-green - even if personally they get their rocks off on it as a nasty form of catharsis and juvenile spite.

ND

Eddie Jones: it was indeed time to go.

Sport's a tough business, and nobody has the right to stay at the top forever.  Despite his many achievements, with England and elsewhere, it was clearly time for Eddie Jones to go.  The autumn test series was indeed a test, and he failed.

Jones worked wonders with the disorganised and demoralised 2015 side (even if one suspects almost any new broom would have dusted them down).  The immediate Grand Slam, followed by an epic tour of Australia - I have never watched a defensive effort like England's in the Second Test - suggested he was doing more than just making a handful of much-needed changes.   His choice of captain, the 'mongrel' Dylan Hartley, seemed inspired.

So where did it go wrong, for such a thoughtful and successful coach?  

1. Seems to me he's a tactician and not a strategist.  He plans carefully and successfully for particular games - for Australia, the semi final over New Zealand in 2003; for Japan, the extraordinary victory over South Africa; and for England the exceptional win over NZ in the 2019 semi final - a game he must have been working on from the moment the pools were announced several years before.  And then ... it was absolutely clear he had no equivalent gameplan for the final - a contingency just as foreseeable.  In fact, just like 2003 when Woodward's England beat him in the final.  (Clive Woodward: now there's a strategist.)
2. Stubbornly 'keeping faith' with the wrong players, admirable though 'loyalty' may be.  Two examples (out of several I could list):  Farrell and Tuilagi.  I don't care what "warrior" attributes he possesses, Farrell is a liability at international level - directly and predictably responsible for England going out in the Pool stage in 2015.  He shouldn't have been in the squad, let alone the post-Hartley captain.  And Tuilagi's physical frailty (sounds like a crazy thing to say, but rugby aficionados will know what I mean) makes his formidable performances of ten years ago an irrelevance.

If England can get Borthwick to step in - and I presume this is primarily a matter of money - the squad is strong enough to mount a turnaround in time for the RWC.  And he's just the man to do it.  Thanks, Eddie, and farewell.

ND

Wealth tax proposals: target 'those other guys'

 Gotta laugh at this earnest Grauniad article: 

One of us is a millionaire, the other a care worker. The cruel divide between rich and poor disgusts us both ...  Britain’s cost of living crisis is disastrous for one of us and will barely touch the other. The best answer is a wealth tax

The two ladies in question are Julia Davies and Winsome Hill.  In case you are wondering, it's Julia that is a member of "Patriotic Millionaires" (sic), and Ms Hill who is the care worker.  Entertainingly but somehow inevitably, the article includes the words "the two of us have never met" !   No, really? -  you surprise me.  "... but we both felt the inequality in this country couldn’t continue ... and decided to write this piece together."

So what have they, errr, spontaneously agreed as a solution for inequality?  Even though they've never met. 

Let’s start with taxing the seriously wealthy – people with wealth of more than £10m. A wealth tax of just 1% or 2% on their stocks of wealth over £10m ...    [my emphasis]

I think we know what this means.  It means - I'm just guessing here - that Ms Davies' "stock of wealth" is somewhere in the band £1m to £5m.  Because that's the very definition of people who think that "seriously wealthy" means north of 10.  Left on her own with the pen, Ms Hill might, I suspect, have written "people with wealth over £1m" - or even £500k, given that the average UK house price is £256k and the median personal pension pot is only in the tens of thousands (though the data is hard to summarise simply).  But that wouldn't do, Ms Davies - would it?   No no no!

Yup, it's human nature to reckon that "serious wealthy" is always someone else.  You got a yacht?  Yeah, but he's got his own island.

ND

"Oil Price Cap" - what do they think it means?

The EU has been at it today, and the G7 will follow, we're told.  We can easily state what they think it means.  Shippers of oil will not qualify for "western insurance and maritime services" if they are buying Russian oil at more than $60/bbl.  

Well, some folks say the Russians can only get ~$50 for their oil on world markets anyway.  But aside from that: since nobody running Russian oil at, say, $65 will feel obliged to, errr, tell this to the authorities - dear me no, guv'nor: $59.95 and not a cent more, look at my paperwork! - the most they'll suffer is presumably that the cargo will only be insured for that lesser amount.  OK, so they'll screw Russia down another dollar for their pains, but no big deal.  Or the Chinese will insure them.   (Good luck making a contested claim on that policy, though.)

All this "capping wholesale prices" in liquid global markets is crazy.  The EU is at it again with gas prices, though that's even less meaningful - they will only be "capped" by governments stumping up the difference between actual import prices and whatever cap they come up with.  And the UK may end up getting subsidised EU electricity, as a delightful quirk of the rules, haha. 

Incidentally, several EU nations are beginning to get fed up with Germany using the power grids of neighbouring countries to keep itself in imported electricity, and are limbering up to take steps to stop them.  Most serious of all is public sentiment in Norway, which hitherto thought it would be great to sell even more of its cheap hydro power into Germany (and other countries, but mostly DE).  Well, the hydro producers and the Norwegian grid (which coins transmission fees) still think that: and the taxman, too.  But Norwegian consumers have noticed that the export of a load of electricity means the import of German power prices!  And on this particular export, they aren't trussed up by EU rules.  Watch this space.

ND

Winter blackouts: more likely now than for years

October was quite exceptionally warm in N.Europe.  November has also been warm, but in the UK also extremely wet; so the heating season really started this month.  And already we've had two 'capacity mechanism' warnings from the National Grid.  I realise many of you won't know exactly what that means: it certainly doesn't mean "blackouts imminent" - the whole point is that it puts providers of standby power on notice - but equally, it's very rare, and there's never been a November with two such warnings.  

Both came about for the same reason: wind generation subsided fairly suddenly, and to a great extent than forecast.  This week's was quite spectacular, in that the wind output fairly collapsed - to zero in the afternoon and for the rest of the day.  We'd been exporting electricity at the start of the day but that switched to importing for a bit of top-up: needless to say, gas-fired generators carried by far the greatest part of the load, with some nuke and biomass, and a tiny amount of shortly-to-be extinct coal. 

And it's not even cold yet.  Granted, Europe as a whole is better placed as regards availability of gas than might have been foreseen back in June.  But we're all in trouble if a serious cold snap comes along, both in terms of wholesale energy prices and absolute energy availability.  Prices are already surging.  Industry will be switched off in many countries, with the UK being better placed than most (FWIW).  

Yet we still find people airily saying we don't need gas.  Possibly the highest profile example, and the most irresponsible, is Ed Miliband, who announced at his Party Conference that we could dispense with gas for all but 0.3% of the time, by 2030.  He's lying through his teeth, his slim defence being that he'd commissioned some "modelling" which told him this was possible.  Well, in the real world, it ain't.

Will this all come to some dramatic, sticky end - if not this year, then shortly thereafter?  I doubt it.  Rather, it'll be years of messy, pragmatic muddling through - which, as it happens, the UK is quite good at.  Targets of all kind will be missed, but it won't have to matter.  Timetables will simply slip, and kit will be refurbished for yet another season.  How much egg will end up on politicians' faces?  Not much.  Greta will be very upset, of course; but most people just want to stay warm.  

ND

Weekend reading: informative essay on Sturgeon's SNP

 Further to our brief Scottish foray after the Supreme Court ruling ... here. Extracts: 

Where [Salmond] imposed his chaotic ego on issues foreign and domestic, [Sturgeon] had more strategic nous, crystallizing the party’s Europhile credentials in the wake of Brexit and consolidating its standing among Scotland’s middle-class Remainer majority ... Sturgeon engineered the destruction of Scottish Labour, lifting support for independence to record-breaking highs. Recently, however ... the semi-biblical belief in Sturgeon’s power has started to fade. [She] saw the 2016 Brexit referendum as an opportunity to de-risk, or de-radicalize, Scottish nationalism. From then on, the SNP moved to the centre in pursuit of liberal Remainers; the Yes campaign began to splinter and dissipate (thanks in part to a controversy over trans rights); and the prospect of a second independence vote receded.

... she will leave behind a threadbare political legacy ... pledges to scrap Council Tax and abolish student loan debt were ditched. In their place came a botched green industrial strategy, record drugs deaths and, potentially ... tens of thousands of public sector job cuts. In 2015, Sturgeon ostentatiously invited the Scottish media to ‘judge’ her on her record of eliminating the class attainment gap in Scottish schools. Nearly a decade later, that gap remains as vast as ever. 

... In 2018, the SNP appeared to concede that the era of petro-nationalism was over was by removing North Sea revenues from its fiscal projections for an independent state. But in her speech to the SNP’s annual conference on 10 October, Sturgeon abruptly repositioned oil at the centre of her vision for Scottish self-government. Tax receipts from remaining North Sea fields would be paid into an investment fund, she said, which would help kickstart Scotland’s economy during the early years of independence. The announcement eradicated what was left of Sturgeon’s meagre environmental credibility and reflected a ‘business-as-usual’ vision for independence.      

ND

Gieves & Hawkes: a subaltern's memories

Today I read that Fraser Group (Sports Direct) has taken over Gieves & Hawkes, the "historic Savile Row tailor".  Whatever next?  (or should that be 'Next ..?')

Ah, the memories.  As a newly-minted Second Lieutenant I was told to present myself at G&H - or "Thieves and Sharks", as they were called, for my first dress uniform - and to "Herby J's" for my hat.  These were the regimental tailors.  Well, when you're new, you have to do what you're told.  

The officers' uniform allowance didn't go very far in Savile Row.  Mercifully, when I was properly ensconced with my unit, I was told of a jobbing tailor who could run up whatever was needed for around half the price - and better tailored, too.  (This all sounds like something out of Evelyn Waugh, n'est-ce pas?)   So it was to him that I went for my Mess Kit - which needed to be well made and of the best material, because it was subjected to some, ahem, stress and strain in the closing stages of the average mess dinner night.

I quickly learned to tie a proper bow-tie knot, too.  Anyone caught wearing a pre-tied knot (by the simple expedient of tugging upon it) had to stand a round of drinks.  And since the number of these challenges would rise as the evening wore on, you needed to be able to re-tie it drunk, and without the aid of a mirror.

See, if the Russian army was properly trained, they wouldn't be utterly up shit creek in the humiliating fashion they now find themselves.

ND

Nicola Sturgeon is Mightily Relieved ...

 ... despite what the Beeb says, for the sake of form:

But she's a player.  She knows full well that an IndyRef2 run tomorrow would be a nightmare for her.  

If she "wins", WTF does she do then?  I can't see the EU rolling out the red carpet for her: it'd be cap-in-hand, multi-year negotiations - and with London, too, in parallel, haha! - with adopting the EUR as a red line requirement on the part of Brussels.  And who knows what else besides, with one eye on the Catalans.  Not as if they don't have any other distractions just now.

If she "loses" she's a gonner in Scotland, and the issue really does take a mighty setback.

Nope, she's only too happy to be throwing indignant strops and stomping around righteously demanding consolation prizes.

ND

Musk: the limitations of raw intelligence

Until the ridiculous Thailand cave rescue incident I hadn't given much thought to Musk.  Mostly positive.  Serious achievements; obviously, brain the size of a planet; vision; and a remarkable ability, not only to think & do hard sums, but to be creative (if not original), and - above all - to implement & execute.

That, though, is a dangerous combination if not leavened with some worthwhile character.  Why introduce that negative perspective?  Well, because of the Thailand thing ... and then there's his extraordinary public statements on the subject of Tesla shares.  Writing as someone who's twice been an officer of a publicly listed US company, with all the blood-curdling warnings - plus accompanying training - one gets from corporate lawyers on the subject of Public Utterances in Matters Affecting the Share Price, I can tell you that one rapidly develops great sensitivity on the subject.  Well, mere mortals do, anyhow.  How Musk got away with it, who can say?  Too big to fall? - like US bankers (though not like Enron's Skilling and Lay).

So now he lays hands on Twitter, and what a dog's breakfast he's making of it.  Mass resignations of exactly the people a tech company relies on (leaving with what juicy insider info in their laptops and craniums?); really funny insults being projected onto his offices; obvious prospect of utter meltdown.  Note to CEO: you don't insist on people working ultra-long hours etc etc as a precondition of employment: serious hard work happens naturally enough when you (a) inspire them and (b) send them on a mission that captures their imagination.  (Flogging works as well - but not when they have serious employability credentials and an unimpeded passage to the door.) 

Musk has climbed several mountains in his remarkable career.  This one is entirely of his own making.  Let's see what happens with Twitter.

ND

SUNDAY UPDATE:  an apposite supporting article in today's Observer. 

Compo: wither sterling?

While we await our fiscal fate ... it seems that placating international markets is the major desideratum of Hunt's upcoming Statement.  Writing as a self-confessed know-nothing about macroeconomics, Sterling must surely be a proxy for international sentiment?  

So:  as of this moment in time (08.23) the pound buys:

• $ 1.1944
• € 1.1494

Compo:  where will it be at 09:00 tomorrow?  

In my ignorance I shall take a punt at slightly lower.   See - I don't even have a serious view on up / down / sideways.  Any better takes on the outlook than this feeble effort?  A small liquid prize for the winner, adjudicated by a complex algorithm that takes into account numerical accuracy, and time of day the prediction is posted (the earlier, the better).  BBC market data used.

ND

*  *  *  *  *  *

So the outturn was 1.1895 (0.4% down); 1.1488 (0.05% down). 

AND THE WINNER:  

... is Jeremy Hunt!  (only kidding).  

The winner is Andrew - correct in both direction, and that it would only be small in magnitude.  Not very prompt off the mark, though: so ...

... Hon mention for Shiney (who got in very fast, and in the correct direction, but a bit too far).  Anon was quite fast, and small in magnitude, but wrong direction.

Prizes:  I will stand both Andrew and Shiney a drink, if & when we have our next blog pub session.  It has to be said that we haven't had one since Covid struck, but here's hoping.  In the meantime, enjoy a free subscription to C@W.  

PS - anon is welcome too, but sadly we need to know what you go by before you get a prize ...

The adult bullying thing (again)

While we await Hunt's Thursday offering, it seems the whole "bullying of adults" thing is a live issue again, be it (allegedly) Raab, Patel, Williamson, Braverman etc etc.  We've discussed it here several times before, and for me there's still some mystery involved.

It's plain enough that workplace bullying by those with genuine career-breaking authority is (a) a real thing; (b) dreadful; and (c) quite difficult to deal with.  If, as seems to be the case (and indeed, seems quite likely) there are bullying politicians who make life intolerable for Civil Servants - particularly junior ones - then that is, in turn, intolerable.  (The obvious fix is only to expose juniors that are of a robust disposition, and never in 1-1 situations.  Needless to say, politicians are hardly unique in such matters.)

What I don't understand is how the average MP ever gets to be brow-beaten by a shit like Gavin Williamson - though it seems they do.  This extends to other whips who didn't like his conduct but seemingly didn't rein him in at the time.   Now if you are, not an average MP, but one who's deeply in debt and other kinds of trouble and who has already thrown themselves on the mercy of Williamson (when he was Chief Whip) - well, that I understand.  But the average MP of my acquaintance, male or female, is pretty self-confident & thick-skinned.  And Williamson is transparently, errr, what he is.

So how come, the very first time he tried this stuff on, he didn't get an immediate f***-off, accompanied by a metaphorical slap round the chops and an explanation of what might follow if he tried to take matters further (in this day and age of easy recording and publication), such that he was disinclined to try it again?

Ambition?  You swallow that stuff because you're a junior MP and he's tacitly threatening to kill your career in its infancy?  I see the argument, but I don't buy it.  If you are a really junior MP - say, first term - but you win a carefully-chosen battle with someone like that, there's nothing but long-term kudos coming your way.  Nobody was going to make you a cabinet minister next week anyway.  We're back in Sadiq-Khan-bullies-Cressida-Dick territory: how's it possible? 

Any thoughts on this distressing facet of human existence?

ND

COP27: Contradictions Foretold

The other day I was looking back at the C@W "predictions 2022" compo.  En passant, it seems that back in January, none of us could believe Putin would actually invade ...

Anyhow, I offered "it's not a prediction, it's a cert; 2022 will be a year when the contradictions in energy policy will truly make themselves felt" - and now, as then, I claim no credit because it was already obvious for all to see.  You could argue - certainly in the case of Germany - it had been obvious for years.

Anyhow, fast-forward to COP27, and much blathering about the wicked oil and gas producers limbering up to produce ... more gas!  And - shock, horror - 

The push is coming from the host Egypt and its gas-producing allies amid a global energy crisis compounded by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Well yes.   And of course benighted Germany is well to the fore in stimulating the producers' revived development activity.  As the Grauniad callously puts it: 

Panic over keeping people warm in winters to come, and keeping the lights on from gas-fired power generation, has led governments in Europe that previously relied on gas from Russia to push for new supplies from a range of other sources.

Well, errr, yes again!  'Panic', of course, is a loaded term in progressive circles, generally coupled as "moral panic", which is always a thing to be derided.  That really is a nasty little insinuation.

Yup, gas it is.  Nature's most all-round effective off-the-shelf fuel offering, certainly in the context of today's technology - while we patiently await practicable nuclear fusion, and/or serious electricity storage capability.  What wailing and gnashing of teeth there will be if Egypt engineers a COP27 resolution which labels gas as "sustainable" ...

ND