Friday, 3 December 2010

The turn of the saint

Confederate General Braxton Bragg was a remarkably intelligent and well-informed man, professionally and otherwise. He was also thoroughly upright. .. A man of the highest moral character and the most correct habits, yet he was in frequent trouble. His irascibility had led him to be transferred away from many posts.

There is an anecdote very characteristic of Bragg.

He was stationed at a frontier fort with several infantry companies commanded by a field officer. He was himself commanding one of the companies and at the same time he was acting as post quartermaster. His commanding officer was called away to other duties, and as next most senior, Bragg assumed command of the fort. As the acting company commander he made a requisition upon the quartermaster–himself–for some supplies he wanted.

As quartermaster he declined to approve his own requisition, and endorsed on the back of it his reasons for so doing. He returned this unfilled requisition to the company commander, who was also himself.. - With his company commander's hat on he responded to this rejected request, urging that his requisition called for nothing but what he was entitled to, and that it was the duty of the quartermaster {himself} to fill it. As quartermaster he received his own note yet still insisted that he was right not to allow the supplies.. In this condition of affairs, and presumably before blows were exchanged, Bragg referred the whole matter to the absent commanding officer of the post. The latter, when he saw the nature of the matter, exclaimed:

“My God, Mr. Bragg, you have quarrelled with every officer in the army, and now you are quarrelling with yourself!”

What the young Lieutenant Bragg, soon to be a Major General in command of an army, was trying to do was show how his orders as a line commander conflicted with his orders as a commissary. If he wanted to mount a long range patrol as commanding officer he was bound to ask for additional wagons and horses and tents and extra troops and rations and so on. As a quartermaster of a fort his job was to ensure there were enough supplies in store, and not to authorise extra items except in the most extreme situation. But all Bragg succeeded in doing was to make himself a laughing stock.

Anyway, enough of the history of obscure 19th century military figures. I see Vince Cable has now decided he will vote in favour of legislation that he was thinking of voting against, even though it was not just government policy, but actually his very own proposals. He has decided, for now, that it might be a good idea to at least seem to be in favour of legislation that he is supposed to be steering through parliament...


Complaint to the BBC Trust

Sent shortly after the World Cup bidding debacle:

The FA, the 2018 bid committee, the Royal Family and the Government invested heavily in trying to win the 2018 World Cup for the UK.

The BBC deigned to show a panorama programme about corruption within Fifia just a day before the decision day for hosting the World Cup.

Earlier this year the Sunday Times had investigated Fifa and Fifa had made clear it did not welcome the investigation and that it had effected the England Bid.

Despite this knowledge the BBC arrogantly cited its own right to free speech to broadcast the Panorama programme this week. Today Sepp Blatter made it clear in the voting process that certain media events had effected the English bid. England then got 2 votes and went out in the first round.

The BBC could have broadcast the same programme tonight or next week, the reason it did not is clearly because it was chasing ratings. This chase may well have cost England the chance of hosting the 2018 World Cup.

As such, the BBC should immediately refund the costs of the bid, the Government and all parties who have  made such efforts that the BBC saw fit to sabotage in such an obvious manner.

Given the BBC is funded by Licence, the cost should not be borne by extra funding, but by finding the money from current budgets.


Do you think I will get a response that is not utterly self-serving? I look forward to their pathetic self-justifications.

Thursday, 2 December 2010

Ratings chasing BBC

Just to follow on from the argument raging over the BBC's decision to air the panorama FIFA corruption program before the bid, comes another, much smaller controversy.
Next week Panorama is investigating "video games". They are doing a Daily Mail style lament that some kids spend 20 hours playing games and never go outside and so on.

No doubt the best selling World of Warcraft, an online multi-player fantasy game, will be under the spotlight.
USA sales alone showed a profit of $250 million from game sales 2001-9. But that is as nothing to Blizzard's WOW 12 million paying subscribers. It earns about $10/month for each one. There are people online who sell their 'fantasy accounts' to others for tens of thousands of pounds.

Their brand new release World Of Warcraft: Cataclysm launches. on the same day that the Panorama program airs. 6th December.

Is this yet more ratings chasing by the BBC? Will the program find a lonely, unsociable kid from amongst the 12 million who play? Will they condemn 'video games' as the media regularly does with games like GTA IV or
Burnout Dominator, or like they used to do with other 'young persons' entertainment such as raves, punk, 'glue sniffing', heavy metal, or Bill Hayley.

I've never played the online game so i don't know its appeal but the BBC..

promises to "reveal the hidden psychological devices in games that are designed to keep us coming back for more".

Panorama reporter Raphael Rowe will "hear from youngsters who've dropped out of school and university to play games for anything up to 21 hours a day" and who "describe their obsessive gaming as an addiction".

The news comes as the BBC pledges a never-before-seen commitment to creating video games of its own, with major licences such as Top Gear and Teletubbies given the interactive treatment.

Its downloadable Doctor Who titles { I think there are 10 or so} were commissioned for a second series in September.

'Addicted to Games?' will air on the hypocritical BBC One on Monday (December 6). Don't feel you have to watch it.

Question time quiz.


David Dimbleby is joined in Coventry by
Danny Alexander,{Treasury and muppet revivalist} Nadine Dorries{Tory who holds ..erm, unconventional views..Batty as a moorhen.}
Ken Livingstone{former mayor of London, lefty left winger,but is at least as independently minded as Boris}
Sir Christopher Meyer{ambassador to USA and a big clue to one of the questions}
Jon Sergent. {Never as interesting as the BBC think he is. Such a Labour tribalist he's usually very boring.}

Guess the questions and win a prize! Answers in the comments.
This weeks winner gets a ticket to the next UK hosting of the world cup in 3018.

I predict..

Q1. Wikileaks
Q2. Student kettling and freedom to protest
Q3. BBC ruins FIFA bid.
Q4. U-turn on scrapping sport.
Q5. Why is Vince cable voting against himself?

So if not Fred the Shred....?

The FSA has said today that it is not going to press any charges against RBS or its staff for their actions pre-the credit crunch.

Courtesy of The Telegraph
They are all accused of incompetence over the buying of ABN Amro and also trying to build the RBS investment bank too quickly. However, they are not criminals.

Of course, given the FSA was the regulatory body, this also handily helps them out of a hole as if RBS was guilty then they would be too by association.

The real focus should be on who is at fault though; because it is not the Greedy bankers on whom everything is currently blamed. Instead the approach to interest rates, the ending of boom and bust and the public sector spending are prime candidates, along with some very poor application of accounting standards. What this tells me is that the market was badly mis-regulated, more than the actors in the market were being criminal.

So at this rate, I would hope that Gordon Brown gets investigated by the FSA as he has a much bigger case to answer.

Wednesday, 1 December 2010

Limits on height of staff at work welcomed

Typical disgraceful office seen from the UK Public Sector
New proposals out today seek to restrict the blatant bias in the workplace against small people. In future, in the Public Sector it will not be allowed for the bosses to be more than 20 inches taller than the smallest members of staff.

There are good reasons for this, tall bosses are seen as domineering and can often be found taking the mick from smaller members of staff. Also tall staff can cause disharmony as smaller staff resent their status in life.

Of course, tall staff don't like this idea, as they are tall and often physically stronger they say they more than carry their share of the burden of work and should not be limited in numbers. If anything, this is adding to discrimination where there should be less.

I find it hard to take sides here, clearly Government interference is most welcome on such subjects as nit-picking from the centre always leads to better productivity and performance outcomes; yet somehow I feel that discrimination is unwelcome..what do you think?

Tuesday, 30 November 2010

New UK Nuke To Be Built . . . Errr

Stirring headline in the Telegraph:

"Consortium to build UK nuclear power plant: three more energy companies have officially joined the race to build nuclear plants in Britain. Scottish & Southern, GDF Suez and Iberdrola are planning to construct their plant adjacent to the Sellafield nuclear site in Cumbria"

Wow, that must have made Chris 'Crapper' Huhne's day. Oh, wait a minute ...

"They will not make a final decision on whether to go ahead with the project for another five years"

Ah, that sort of 'race'. Keep up at the back, there ...

ND

Next steps in the Euro Crisis

As said here many times previously, the euro is a currency union that was never going to survive its first real crisis. Well today, here we are right in the eye of the storm. People like William Buiter are feeling free to chuck around assertions that the periphery countries of Europe are all insolvent.

The crisis, which I fully expected to subside with the irish bailout until Q1, is continuing. Goldman Sachs' intervention suggests that the US is keen to keep the Euro area in focus for a while and see what damage it can inflict on Germany and France. German bonds are now tracking the perphery bonds, the crisis is everywhere.

There are though only 2 real options left now:

1. Massive Quantitative easing from the European Central Bank. The bailout funds are not big enough or accessible quickly enough so a one off debasement will really help here. Of course, this is great for German exports and less good for the US where it is itself using quantitative easing to try and devalue its currency.

2. Full Fiscal Union - the other approach is to end nation state soveriengty over their own fiscal affairs. Bonds issued centrally would be of better able to finance the periphery and only marginally more costly to Germany and France.

However, which of these is easier to implement politically and practically. Number one by a mile; more QE it is then....

Monday, 29 November 2010

Goldmans lay into the Euro

Could not help but be fascinated by the interview with Jim O'Neill, finding time at Goldmans not to work on a huge leverage buyout of Man Utd, he opines on the Euro.

Nothing wrong with that, we are all doing this it is a serious issue. Now very poor Telegraph writing has this being a Black Swan article. Now of course Black Swan is Nasim Taleb, another US economist. Not Jim O'Neill, the journalist wants to the reader to get scared though is the message this is sending me.

Then O'Neill goes onto say the Euro is over-valued (against what? and how in a currency war...the US and UK are printing money out of thin air). So now my question is, what is the Goldman angle?


Goldman are the Squid of old, the arch users of everyone and everything in the world. This statement will therefore be well considered. Are Goldman's here helping the US Government by trying to get the Euro more into focus?

Or are Goldman's short the Euro and keen to press home now whilst their positions are good and to buy them time before any bailout may work?

What do you think, these moments are always significant?

Sunday, 28 November 2010

Another Sunday, Another Irish bailout

Storm clouds gather again
Here we go again, hot of the Pestowire (showing signs of life recently now that world financial confliction is back upon us?), news that the UK is to offer the biggest bilateral loan to Ireland. At 5.8% no less. Which all in all is a pretty good deal given that the UK is currently borrowing from the markets at 3.3%.

A cool £96 million profit there for the UK in arbitrage terms - beware what you read about the UK adding to its woes here, it is nothing of the sort. Worse news for Ireland though is that teh National Pension fund is being pressed in for the bailout. If this does not work, there is nothing left - the Eurocrats are forcing everything to be bet on the non-default scenario.

However, also coming out it the news that the Germans are up for doubling the Euro Bailout fund so that it can cope with a Spain rescue in the near future. This will be another drain on UK resources and the margins on the loans won;t be so attractive compared to our increasing debt burden.

All in all I quite like this as it means we reach the end game sooner - we will learn whether there is enough political and economic capital to save the Euro during this crisis. Sadly, as it is an economic millstone, I think it will be saved.

Saturday, 27 November 2010

Its growth Jim, But not as we know it..


Retail sales growth improves
High street retail sales growth sped up in November
The business lobby group's distributive trades survey showed a balance of 43% of retailers reported a rise in sales in November against a year earlier, with grocers and clothing retailers the main winners.


Hooray! Except... what have we been saying here for months about the inflationary pressures on certain sections of the retail industry? Was it 'Both grocers an clothing have been badly hit by the rise in the cost of commodities, grain and cotton.."

The cotton 15 year high price was in May, when the last of the Xmas stock was bought. Since then India has put further export restrictions on the fibre, which can only make things worse. China has released its grain reserves onto the market to try and reduce food inflation in China, CPI running at 4.4% there.

Rises in sales do not necessarily mean an increase in footfall and higher quantity consumer spending or greater profits. If anything the high street is quiet. Only the last two weeks have sen the sort of movement that indicates a good Christmas, and, in general, not by enough.
The December figures will be helped a little by the beat the Vat spending, but not until companies report profits in 2011 will we really know what's occurred.

Not that that will stop the newspapers running their seasonal 'shoppers shake off austerity and beat the Vatman' story. They will print the till receipt year on year figures and that will look good..even though it probably isn't.

{Big seller is the cuddle chimp. And the musical snowblower. {it plays jingle bells and has lights .} BQ Industries, somewhat unexpectedly, sold out of those in October.
The more traditional 'Better homes than yours ' type items, like tall pyramid advent candles and top quality wrapping paper and bows, etc, have barely moved as yet.

Standard's Slipping - Again

CU has had cause to chastise the Evening Standard for its poor financial reportage; and I return for a spot of R&R to find therein a piece of complete (and possibly libellous) fiction, penned by one Nick Goodway, who is berating Clare Spottiswoode for her performance as Chair of the Independent Commission on Banking.

"This is the same Spottiswoode who was head of the regulator Ofgem when British Energy virtually went bust"

Errr, no. Such a short sentence, and so little truth. Spottiswoode was never head of Ofgem. At the time when BE went under (2002), she was the newly-appointed non-exec Deputy Chairman of BE itself. Far from the implied role in its demise, she was in fact one of the players who helped clean up the mess. For the avoidance of doubt, she is not my aunt or anything ... I just don't like outright nonsense polluting the airwaves.

That said, it isn't wrong to be keeping an eye on La Spotti and her Commission over the coming months. Her track record as a regulator (Ofgas 1993-98, by the way) was one of enthusiastic free-market rhetoric at the macro level, and rather depressing regulatory capture by British Gas at the detailed level, where much of the action always is. She could never quite believe that polite men in smart suits could be lying through their teeth to her.

Having the right instincts is fine as far as it goes, but will she be a match for smooth bankster-lobbyists when it comes to the all-important nitty-gritty ? She relied heavily on others to do that stuff for her at Ofgem, and it is to be earnestly hoped the Commission is properly staffed.


We shall see.

ND

Friday, 26 November 2010

Euro crisis helps Germany, hurts UK

As posted previously, I am very cynical about the German moves of the past few weeks. They have not helped their fellow eurozone member at all; in fact quite the opposite.

However buried in here is bad news for the UK too. The bearish commentariat which passes for a financial press in the UK tried hard to look down on GDP numbers that were at 0.8% for Q3. The really good sign was that exports were finally picking up, giving the UK an out from trying to grow its already bloated services sector or increase Government spending.

So the really big downside to the Euroe crisis is the effect on the euro/£ exchange rate, which has been quite precipitous for the last month and shows now sign of abating. German exports are getting an Irish markdown at the moment making it harder for the UK to compete commercially in Europe. Throwing us back to square one again in terms fo battling our fiscal deficit....

These currency wars are very complex, are they not?

Happiness ... Happiness ..

How happy are you?
Feeling like there's a lot to smile about?



Answers in the comments.
Do you

A} Feel more optimistic or more pessimistic about 2011
B} Feel more happy or less happy about the new government
C} Thinking of emigrating or have quashed all thoughts of emigrating.
and finally
D} Are you more or less happy now that the government is asking you how happy you are.

Thursday, 25 November 2010

Question time

BBC says David Dimbleby is joined in Maidstone by

Ken Clarke MP {Justice secretary, big beast,euro-joiner}
Gloria de Piero MP {presenter and Labour MP with a tiny majority.}
Lord Ashdown,{former leader of liberal democrats, venerable politico and man with teeth gritted to destruction over coalition with Tories..but he will hide it well enough.}
Nigel Farage MEP{ Leader of UKIP, eurosceptic and someone who isn't collecting as many airmiles as he used to.}
and Kate Mosse {fantasy author..she should be in good company.}

Q1. Euro bailout for Ireland
Q2. Student moans
Q3. End of the euro. {Dimby will quote the Ken was wrong piece}
Q4 Is everybody happy? {see previous post..and fill in the questionnaire too!}
Q5. Immigration cap

So - What Are The Hot Topics in Germany ?

Letter from Germany

So if Germans aren’t obsessing over the Irish bailout, what are the main topics of conversation ?

Well, obviously there is always the old stalwart of the Battle of Stuttgart Station. All they are trying to do is make this rather inconvenient old terminus into a through route. But the greens have taken against it, and the ensuing conflict makes Swampy and his struggle against the Newbury bypass look like a toddler’s tantrum.

These Teutonic nimbys, who in truth seem as much nihilists as environmentalists, are really looking forward to the Big Event – the comeback tour of the Atomkraft? Nein Danke movement. Aroused from dormancy by Merkel’s temerity in extending the life of Germany’s nukes by fiat, they are already swarming all over the railway tracks in front of the nuclear waste trains in their tens of thousands, and lighting up Berlin with torchlight demos on a very big scale indeed. What japes! Don’t these frivolous people realize they are in charge of the whole of Europe ? On a bad day they seem pretty ungovernable to me.

Which brings us to the other great topic of conversation: they may be about to scrap military conscription. Yup, it’s still compulsory around these parts, although at call-up time very large numbers conveniently remember they are conscientious objectors. They need to make their case to be let off to do community service instead; but you can download a well-drafted letter from the web to assist in your application. Tens of thousands do just that – and work for a pittance in hospitals etc - a rather handy source of cheap labour: so scrapping this system is not uncontroversial.

In any event, it’s likely to be only a de facto scrapping: compulsory citizen-soldiership is written into the postwar constitution on the basis it makes the army one with the people, and neutralizes it as a civil threat.

Trouble is, with the passing of the Cold War as a source of motivation, it somewhat neutralizes it as an effective army. Germans still make good soldiers: but the conscripts often work with kit that is 30 or more years old, and are in no shape to deploy for action. As with most conscript armies in peacetime, the serious soldiers yearn to go 100% professional. It’s probably what they will do.

Something else to take the mind off boring old bailouts.

ND

Tuesday, 23 November 2010

Ireland: A Real Live Stress-Test Unfolds

Quick comment from Germany:

That Irish Bail-out ... looks like those feeble bank "stress tests" might themselves be put to the test. And still they resist increases in CapAd requirements.

In the circumstances of mid 2010 it was always fatuous to simulate exposure to PIGS sovereign risk with a haircut alone, as we argued at the time, and may shortly discover for real.

It all depends on how quickly events develop. So far, Drew's Law of Slow-Mo Dominos is holding ...

ND

Trading update

(picked a day for it, off 2.5% on the day!). Overall up 60% on the year at the moment. Current plan to to sell out of XEL after news next week and start to build EMED as it becomes isable for next year. GKP probably only has a couple of quarters too before it is taken out as well. Plan build up IAE and AEY with that money.

Name
Current
Price
Buy
Price
Target
Price
2010 YTD
MNR
71
25
120
-10%
EMED
8.88
9.8
48
-10%
XTR
1.6
2.6
4
-30%
AST
6.45
6.6
20
-2%
GKP
177
93
350
80%
IAE
135
59
300
40%
HOIL
366
308
450
20%
XEL
246
59
590
325%
POL
5.3
4.1
5.5
25%
FDI
25
28
36
-10%
AEY
59
66
115
-10% 

Monday, 22 November 2010

CDO's explained

I like this site; meant to link last week but only just got round to it due to illness

Competition: Win Return Flights to Florence with CityJet

Win flights to Florence, Italy. Picture - Punto Vecchio Florence. Copyright CityJet To celebrate the commencement of their new service to Florence, CityJet are giving away a pair of return flights to the Tuscan city.
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 For many visitors though, the first stop is the Galleria dell'Accademia which houses Michelangelo's statue of David.
There's so much to enjoy in Florence, from the beautiful buildings and art, to the delicious local food and of course Chianti, the wine of Tuscany. If you've got time, hire a car for a day and take a trip to nearby Pisa for a view of the Leaning Tower and on to Siena; a historic hilltop town famous for it's Il Palio; an annual horse race around the central square.
Win flights to Florence, Italy. Picture - CityJet Cabin Crew. Copyright CityJet
About CityJet's New Florence service


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